Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 24)

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:32 am

Bonds: 2.95% versus 2.986%.

Bonds sold Wednesday after testing the 10 day EMA Tuesday.

Looked as it should be with the Fed hiking rates as the 10 year moved over 3% on the Wednesday close. Then they recovered into Friday, closing near the 10 day EMA.

A failure here means a downtrend is establishing and consummates a head and shoulders formed from late May.

Again, that is as it should be. Yields should rise, need to rise, to prevent a Fed induced inversion.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%).

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:43 am

Bonds: 2.873% versus 2.928%.

Bonds gapped upside in a flight to safety, closing just over the 50 day SMA.

Could be working on the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top spanning late May to present. Those often set up, don't often lead to major selling.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:48 am

Bonds: 2.864% versus 2.871%.

Bonds have returned to just below the 200 day SMA as of Friday, rallying for 2+ weeks off the selloff from late July.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:41 am

Bonds: 2.813% versus 2.828%.

Bonds are rallying, yields are falling even as the stock market hits new highs.

TLT gapped lower, tested the 200 day on the low, then rallied back up to a recovery high and earning the July peaks.

Bond yields should be rising, not falling, particularly with Powell saying the Fed should and will keep hiking.

Perhaps it is a case of the market knowing the Fed always overshoots. Perhaps.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:55 am

Bonds: 2.86% versus 2.857%.

Gapped below the 200 day SMA Tuesday as bonds sold, yields rose.

Friday gapped over the 200 day SMA but then gave it up and lost ground.

Back to the 50 day SMA where it held after the gap lower.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:07 pm

If You Want to Make Big Money, Consider This Contrarian Opportunity

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds will crash from near 3% today to below 2% within the next six months.

This is the most contrarian bet I see in the markets today. So if you want to make big money, consider being bold and betting on lower interest rates. Shares of TLT are the simplest way to do it.


Source: DailyWealth.com

http://dailytradealert.com/2018/09/07/i ... portunity/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:59 am

Bonds: 2.941% versus 2.879%. Gapped lower from the 200 day SMA Tuesday.

Tried to bounce through Thursday, then gapped to a lower low on this selling Friday.

Okay, this is as it should be: stronger data equals weaker bonds, higher yields.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:59 am

Bonds: 2.941% versus 2.879%. Gapped lower from the 200 day SMA Tuesday.

Tried to bounce through Thursday, then gapped to a lower low on this selling Friday.

Okay, this is as it should be: stronger data equals weaker bonds, higher yields.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:12 pm

While Jeff Gunlach doesn’t see the U.S. 10-year yield heading as low as 2.25 percent, “what could get you there is a monumental short squeeze, because the speculative short positioning in the 10-year is off the charts”

Source: Bloomberg
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:25 am

Bonds: 3.00% versus 2.972%.

After bounce off the prior selling, touching the 10 day EMA on the Thursday high, bonds gapped sharply lower Friday, closing in on the early August low.

They should sell and rates should rise.

Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Other Investment Instruments & Ideas

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests