Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 24)

Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon May 07, 2018 8:52 am

Bonds: 2.952% versus 2.948%.

Bonds moved up to test the 50 day MA on the week and closed just below that level Friday.

Double bottom? About to find out in how they react at the 50 day MA's.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon May 14, 2018 1:10 pm

Bonds: 2.97% versus 2.966%.

Closed over 3% Wednesday, but faded.

Bouncing back and forth the past two weeks just below the 50 day MA, and looks, frankly, as if TLT wants to break higher.

Does not make sense in terms of a strengthening economy when rates should rise and bond prices should fall.

Nonetheless the bond market has the look it might try to break higher, and that is a market against a new breakout in the stock market if indeed bonds do break higher.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon May 21, 2018 8:03 am

Bonds: 3.06% versus 3.123%.

Bonds bounced some Friday after breaking below the April and February levels, but the main point is yields held over 3.0%

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue May 22, 2018 8:43 pm

Corporate Bonds Sink Fast in One of Worst Tumbles Since 2000

by Cecile Gutscher

The highest yields in almost five years are likely to discourage new bond supply.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporat ... 08125.html
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Thu May 24, 2018 8:16 am

Bonds are on the brink of sounding the recession alarm

by Dion Rabouin

“Now that the short end of curve is offering yields that are non-zero that’s a big shift”.

“We’ve been in this environment where for years to earn anything meaningfully above zero you really had to step out on the curve and in terms of risk.”

“I suspect we’ll see an inversion the end of this year or early 2019, which is a harbinger of recession probably in 2020.”

The yield curve inverted before the recessions of 1981, 1991, 2000 and 2008. In fact, it has predicted all nine U.S. recessions since 1955, with a lag time ranging from six months to two years.


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-mar ... 38116.html
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:59 am

Bonds: 2.948% versus 2.928%.

Bonds continued selling on the week but Thursday surged back up through the 50 day MA.

Held that level with a 50 day MA Friday with a doji.

Yields faded some, but the recovery of bonds over the 50 day MA is an interesting development.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:14 am

Corporate Debts: Is this the next big short?

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/is-this-the-next-big-short/
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:52 pm

Bonds: 2.922% versus 2.933%.

Bonds stemmed the selling on the week, worked laterally long the 50 day MA's. Then they started to rally post-FOMC.

Fed raises rates and bonds rally, dropping yields?

Again, not much faith shown in the bond market that the Fed has a clue.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:50 am

Russia cuts Treasury holdings in half as foreigners start losing appetite for US debt

Foreign governments have pared back their holdings of U.S. debt, reducing the total by nearly $10 billion in March and April.

Russia was notable among the group stepping back with a nearly 50 percent cut.

The U.S. government needs buyers of its debt as the Fed continues to reduce its holdings and the budget deficit is projected to surge in coming years.

Russia sliced its holdings of U.S. debt nearly in half from March to April, from $96.1 billion to $48.7 billion. Russia's Treasury ownership peaked at $108.7 billion in May 2017.

In all, foreigners held $6.17 trillion of the total $14.84 trillion of Treasury debt outstanding through April.

The national debt including intragovernmental holdings has swelled to more than $21 trillion.

China, the largest owner of U.S. debt, reduced its level by $5.8 billion in April to $1.18 trillion, while Japan, the second largest, cut its holdings by $12.3 billion to $1.03 trillion. Ireland, the U.K. and Switzerland also pulled back.


by Jeff Cox

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/russia- ... KW,1LGN4,1
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:34 pm

Bonds: 2.895% versus 2.838%.

Yields surged as bonds crashed.

Trump lamented the Fed's rate hikes and to many that only cemented another hike in September as the Fed would have to show its 'independence.'

Certainly looked as if the market was heading that way.

Source: Investment House
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