Bonds: 2.952% versus 2.948%.
Bonds moved up to test the 50 day MA on the week and closed just below that level Friday.
Double bottom? About to find out in how they react at the 50 day MA's.
Source: Investment House
The highest yields in almost five years are likely to discourage new bond supply.
“Now that the short end of curve is offering yields that are non-zero that’s a big shift”.
“We’ve been in this environment where for years to earn anything meaningfully above zero you really had to step out on the curve and in terms of risk.”
“I suspect we’ll see an inversion the end of this year or early 2019, which is a harbinger of recession probably in 2020.”
The yield curve inverted before the recessions of 1981, 1991, 2000 and 2008. In fact, it has predicted all nine U.S. recessions since 1955, with a lag time ranging from six months to two years.
Russia sliced its holdings of U.S. debt nearly in half from March to April, from $96.1 billion to $48.7 billion. Russia's Treasury ownership peaked at $108.7 billion in May 2017.
In all, foreigners held $6.17 trillion of the total $14.84 trillion of Treasury debt outstanding through April.
The national debt including intragovernmental holdings has swelled to more than $21 trillion.
China, the largest owner of U.S. debt, reduced its level by $5.8 billion in April to $1.18 trillion, while Japan, the second largest, cut its holdings by $12.3 billion to $1.03 trillion. Ireland, the U.K. and Switzerland also pulled back.
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