Rewards Out There 03 (Jun 16 - Dec 25)

[winston]

4 Stock Tailwinds

by Bryan Rich

Tailwind #1 for stocks: Big earnings beats. About nine out of ten companies beat estimates, with earnings growth of better than 90% (compared to the same period last year).

Tailwind #2 for stocks: The House will return to Capitol Hill next week to rubber stamp $4.5 trillion of government spending.

Tailwind #3 for stocks: The Fed will continue to promote ultra-easy financial conditions for at least the better part of the next year.

Tailwind #4 for stocks: Oil prices are 19% lower than a month ago.

Source: Forbes

[winston]

The S&P 500 will keep going up this fall — for these 9 reasons

By Jeff Reeves

Despite chatter of a stock-market top, there is no proof a correction is ‘overdue’

1. Strong momentum for stocks
2. Earnings remain impressive
3. Fed tapering fears abate
4. Wall Street remains bullish; Roughly 56% of analyst recommendations on S&P 500 stocks are “buy” or equivalent. That’s the most since 2002.
5 Housing market “wealth effect”. In July, median home prices were up an impressive 18.4% over the prior year.
6. Core inflation vs. food and energy
7. Bigger picture, inflation doesn’t equal a bear market anyway
8. What’s the alternative now? TINA
9. Most investors should ignore short-term trends anyhow

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... eid=yhoof2

[winston]

Goldman Sachs Out With 10 Top Macro and Stock Market Themes for 2022

by Lee Jackson

These are their market themes for 2022:

1) Long Convalescence – Weaker beta signals as the economy and medical recovery matures.

2) Supply Side recovery – Shortages ease which in turn helps the inflation picture.

3) Too early for the risk bunker – The pro-cyclical market trends continue with an economic recovery.

4) Structural scarcity – Commodity tightness continues.

5) Rates go higher – Central banks including the Federal Reserve start to hike interest rates

6) Pricing in the once unthinkable – The European Central Bank exit’s negative rates

7) In lower gear – China tolerates a step-down in growth.

8) Old school – More mature tightening cycle in the emerging markets, but they also see old school fiscal risks.

9) Parting ways – Disparate recovery trajectories should drive assets.

10) Usual suspects – Risks remain from Covid, interest rates, commodities and politics.

Source: 24/7 Wall Street

https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/11 ... Newsletter

[winston]

Which Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?

BY Chris Vermeulen

COVID Shifts Global Cycles Faster and Broader Trends

Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase.

2020-2022 Hyper-Cycle Event May Be Shifting Into Autumn/Winter Soon

My research suggests global market trends and ETF sectors, are poised for a powerful rally through 2021 and into early 2022 as Q4:2021 earnings and the continued Kondratieff Summer season extends.

Retail and Institutional Traders will chase this rally phase while global central banks ease away from making any sudden moves to disrupt this cycle.

Traders need to stay prepared for any number of extreme price events over the next 12 to 24+ months, focusing on the strongest trending asset classes/sectors.

If my research is correct, we should be transitioning into a late Summer Season – leading to an Autumn Season in early 2022.

A Kondratieff Autumn season is indicative of a “Blow-Off Rally Phase” in the markets where a peak in price eventually sets up.

Source: INO

https://www.ino.com/blog/2021/11/which- ... ZrVWtBBxRY

[winston]

You Want to Own Stocks Now

by Ben Morris and Drew McConnell

We’re looking at the stocks-to-bonds ratio.

We’ll use the benchmark S&P 500 Index as our gauge for stocks. And we’ll use the 30-year U.S. Treasury for long-term bonds.

When the ratio rises, it means stocks are outperforming bonds. And when the ratio falls, it means bonds are outperforming stocks.

The stocks-to-bonds ratio is in a clear uptrend. Investors are pouring their cash into stocks… And they’re far less interested in buying bonds with historically low yields.

Most of the major U.S. stock indexes are trading at or near all-time highs. And the stocks-to-bonds ratio is hitting new all-time highs, too.

As long as this ratio is in an uptrend, you want to own stocks.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2021/11/27/ ... cks-now-3/

[winston]

26 cheap stocks to buy now that Omicron has hammered markets: Wells Fargo

by Brian Sozzi

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/26-cheap ... ?.tsrc=372

[winston]

Fallen Angels Cast from the Heavens

$PYPL: -37%
$TWTR: -38%
$SNAP: -38%
$TWLO: -41%
$COUP: -44%
$FTCH: -48%
$MRNA:-48%
$RNG: -49%
$DKNG:-50%
$upst:-50%
$PINS: -50%
$ROKU: -51%
$ZM: -56%
$BABA: -56%
$z: -59%
$TDOC: -60%
$CRSP: -61%
$PENN: -61%
$FSLY: -65%
$BYND: -67%
$PTON: -70%

https://twitter.com/akramsrazor/status/ ... -200610370

[winston]

Three reasons for market optimism in 2022 despite economic risks

The global pandemic, rising inflation and hawkish stances by central banks linger in the air but economic conditions and market sentiment can easily diverge

Investors learning to live with the virus, limited effects from the Fed’s tonal shift and policy easing from China should hearten investors in the new year

by Nicholas Spiro

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... e=homepage

[winston]

Moore's Law

The number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits seemed to double every single year.

[winston]

Wright's Law

Every doubling of airplane production, the labor requirement was reduced by 10%-15%.