Rewards Out There 03 (Jun 16 - Dec 25)

[winston]

JPMorgan’s Kolanovic sees three reasons for more stocks upside

by Nikos Chrysoloras

Three reasons for their optimistic outlook:

1. Both equity and credit markets have historically fared well at the start of monetary tightening cycles;

2. Even as nominal bond yields and rates rise, “the real policy rate is extremely negative and thus simulative” and it’s too early to take inversion as a signal of recession risk;

3. Not all central banks are tightening, as the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China are moving in the opposite direction, and equities “look likely to see some support from fiscal stimulus” in those countries.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... cks-upside

[behappyalways]

When Will This Bear Market End?

Over the last 120-years, there have been 14-bear markets that averaged roughly a 33% decline from peak to trough.

The EOCI (economic composite output index) is contracting quickly as the Leading Economic Index (LEI) confirms the data trend.

7-Rules To Follow

1. Move slowly. There is no rush in making dramatic changes. Doing anything in a moment of “panic” tends to be the wrong thing.

2. If you are overweight equities, DO NOT try and fully adjust your portfolio to your target allocation in one move. Again, after big declines, individuals feel like they “must” do something. Think logically above where you want to be and use the rally to adjust to that level.

3. Begin by selling laggards and losers. These positions were dragging on performance as the market rose and they led on the way down.

4. Add to sectors, or positions, that are performing with, or outperforming the broader market if you need risk exposure.

5. Move “stop-loss” levels up to recent lows for each position. Managing a portfolio without “stop-loss” levels is like driving with your eyes closed.

6. Be prepared to sell into the rally and reduce overall portfolio risk. There are a lot of positions you are going to sell at a loss simply because you overpaid for them to begin with. Selling at a loss DOES NOT make you a loser. It just means you made a mistake. Sell it, and move on with managing your portfolio. Not every trade will always be a winner. But keeping a loser will make you a loser of both capital and opportunity.

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when- ... market-end

[winston]

5 Reasons Why Now Is a Great Time to Buy Stocks

by Louis Navellier

1. We are not in an earnings recession. 2Q Est Results: Sales+10%; Earning +4%
2. You can still find accelerating sales and earnings momentum
3. The core rate of inflation may well have peaked four months ago
4. Treasury bond yields may have also peaked
5. The rest of the world is looking to the US

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

A Once-In-a-Decade Buying Opportunity Is Almost Here

by Sean Michael Cummings

BoA Monthly survey to fund managers: 14-year low in stock allocation, a 21-year high in cash balances, and all-time negativity about global growth and profits.

This situation could get worse before it gets better. But today, stocks are more hated than they’ve been in years.

And the lower they go, the better the buying opportunity will be when the trend changes course.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2022/07/26/ ... most-here/

[winston]

Climate change, rising insurance costs, food security singled out in CSIRO megatrends report

By Nick Kilvert

Source: abc.net

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/202 ... =291917007

[winston]

8 Reasons This Is the Start of a New Tech Bull Market

There’s a mountain of evidence suggesting why it’s not crazy to believe a new bull market is emerging.

By Luke Lango

Bull Market Indicators: A Slowing Economy and Cooling Inflation
a. The economy is rapidly slowing
b. Inflation has peaked

A Dovish Federal Reserve and Topped-Out Yields
a. The Fed will turn dovish
b. Treasury yields are topping out

Tech Stock Rallies and Insider Buying Sprees
a. Breadth indicators flashing super bullish signals across the tech sector right now.
b. Insiders are buying the dip at a volume historically consistent with market bottoms

Better-Than-Expected Earnings and Bullish Indicators
a. Tech earnings have topped expectations
b. The advancing volume indicator flashed a “buy” signal for the first time since the COVID-19 crash’s final stages in 2020
c. The bond market is also flashing its own bear-market bottom buying signal with a perfect record of predicting positive gains

Source: InvestorPlace

https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthin ... 6OJc9o/h4=

[winston]

These 2 ‘Perfect’ Indicators Say the Bear Market Is Over

We’re starting to see lots of signals indicating that stocks' bear market is in the midst of a generational turnaround

By Luke Lango

Bear Market End: Advancing Volume Indicator Just Flashed “Buy”

Bond Market Flashes Its Own 100% Accurate “Buy” Signal

Source: InvestorPlace

https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthin ... 6OJc9o/h4=

[winston]

10 reasons to be bullish on stocks right now, according to JP Morgan

by Brian Sozzi

1. Valuations appear attractive, both in absolute terms and compared to fixed income.

2. There are elevated cash levels among institutional investors, as well as an appetite to begin putting funds to work.

3. Investor sentiment is currently too bearish (often viewed as bullish indicator for stocks).

4. Federal Reserve hawkishness has likely peaked.

5. The U.S. dollar has likely peaked for the year.

6. The economic slowdown isn't showing signs of a nasty recession.

7. Higher income consumers remain resilient.

8. Earnings estimates on the Street unlikely to be marked down aggressively.

9. Excess savings built during the pandemic are still providing a cushion to consumer spending.

10. The global economy will unlikely see a synchronized downturn.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/portfolio/mfa ... 8d25f/view

[winston]

Reasons to be Optimistic

BY George Yacik

Expect to raise rates by another 100 basis points, to about 5.1%, next year.

Fed’s revised economic projections, it now expects inflation to fall to 3.1% next year before declining in 2024 to 2.5% and 2.1% in 2025, putting it at its long-term target.

It's also now calling for U.S. GDP to grow by 0.5% next year, unchanged from this year’s pace, before climbing to 1.6% in 2024.

The Fed projects the unemployment rate to jump to about 4.5% over the next three years, up from 3.7% currently, due to its rate increases.

“Supply chain bottlenecks” were constantly in the news at the beginning of this year, but you don’t hear much about them anymore, do you?

Oil prices are projected to drop still lower even as we enter the teeth of winter. The world has managed.

With Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans the House, political gridlock may be the happy result, as Congress and the Biden White House will have fewer opportunities to screw things up further than they already have.

Source: INO.com

https://www.ino.com/blog/2022/12/reason ... 6I0ZXZBxRY

[winston]

These Will Be The Best 10 Stocks In 2023, Analysts Say

by MATT KRANTZ

Source: IBD

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-fund ... src=A00220