by Nick Rokke
1. Aerospace and defense
2. Infrastructure and steel
3. Material suppliers
Source: The Palm Beach Daily
http://thecrux.com/how-to-profit-from-t ... on-budget/
1. Aerospace and defense
2. Infrastructure and steel
3. Material suppliers
1. Valuation
Based on forward price-earnings ratios, he pointed out stocks look relatively cheap.
2. Economic Backdrop
3. Liquidity
4. Investor Psychology
5. Momentum
"A market in motion tends to stay in motion unless otherwise acted upon. You look at something just as simple as the 200-day moving average," he said. "We really haven't even crossed below that even with two or three downdrafts this year. So, all in all, momentum signals suggest stay in this risk on position for now."
1. Raw Materials
2. Consumer Discretionary
3. FAANG's
U.S. equity values have increased by $27.8 trillion, or 337%, since the stock market’s low in March 2009, which came within days of the Fed’s stepped-up QE.
The combined balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, and BOJ, from roughly $4 trillion in 2008 to a peak of $15 trillion in early 2018, was closely paralleled by the rise in the S&P 500.
Since last October, the Fed has proceeded as promised in shrinking its balance sheet, reducing its assets by $252 billion. The net purchases of the Fed, ECB, and BOJ will go from the equivalent of $100 billion a month in the fourth quarter of 2017 to zero, starting in this year’s fourth quarter.
In the last five years, U.S. corporations have taken advantage of low yields to sell $9.2 trillion of bonds, which have helped fund $3.5 trillion in repurchases, and are on pace for a record $850 billion in stock buybacks in 2018.
The $4 trillion in unfunded public pension liabilities dwarfs the $500 billion in underwater housing that helped set off the great financial crisis.
1) US Growth Saves the World
2) The Fed Saves the Day
3) Credit Markets Save the Hysteria
1. Market expectations are lower this year
2. Expect disappointing earnings reports
3. GDP growth may be lackluster
4. Expect a pause in interest rates
5. Value stocks are coming back
6. The bear market may roll
7. Earnings multiples should stabilize
8. Tech stocks are expected to underperform
9. Expect another range-bound year
1) Tariffs are still a concern
2) Input costs weigh on trade-sensitive industries
3) Rising wages are bad for some sectors, but...
4) Geopolitical risks at 5-year high
5) Strong U.S. dollar a headwind
1. The U.S. economy remains strong
2. “Green shoots” appear in the global economy
3. Company earnings are poised to surprise
4. There’s genuine progress on trade talks
Return to Other Investment Instruments & Ideas
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests