Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Apr 20)

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:13 am

Brace for Impact: Global Financial Crisis May be Just Around the Corner

Sadly, this time around Europe, won’t be able to trim the fat, as there’s none left.

AS for the US, it’s been desperate to get one last breath before getting submerged underwater with zero interest rates. And again, over the last couple of years, Trump would start trade wars left and right, as if there was no tomorrow. It seems that this time we are about to learn just how deep the rabbit hole goes.

As a matter of fact, the World Bank is convinced that should expect a new global financial crisis to come upon us in the nearest future. This was stated in the report titled Global Economic Prospects, Darkening Skies, which states that the year 2019 may easily become a turning point to the world economy against the backdrop of the slowdown of the world economy.

Today, there are too many factors that can make the matters even worse than they are now. Of course, the leading among those is the over unpredictability of the Trump administration as it’s seems a bit too willing to turn its back on the previous international commitments of the United State, be it the unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, hints that the US will abandon the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty or threats to impose new economic punishment on those players who prefer to agree to disagree with the crumbling hegemon.

According to Stratfor, the great power rivalry with China and Russia pushes the United States to downgrade its military commitments in Africa and the Middle East.

Yet another factor is the the Fed’s raising key rate for the first time since 2014. This means that money becomes more expensive. Thus, the Fed is preparing to become a beneficiary of the crisis, along with those powerful and wealthy people, who will be buying bonds at about half the price at the height of the crisis.

We may as well add public widespread public disobedience, riots, mass looting, revolutions and military conflicts plunging a number of continents into chaos.

The already dire situation in such countries as Yemen, Afghanistan and Ukraine can rapidly go from bad to worse. We can expect the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel launching military aggression against Iran, due to the continuing deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. Things don’t look any better for Africa and Latin America too.

It didn’t take long for trade wars, cyberattacks, shifting defense strategies and arms races, to convince the world that this is the new and uncomfortable global reality.


Source: New Eastern Outlook

https://journal-neo.org/2019/01/24/brac ... he-corner/
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:58 am

Expect more hard times ahead, as bear market has just begun to stir

The interconnected nature of the globalised economy means the current economic downturn is being dangerously underestimated

The S&P 500 could easily fall 40 per cent from its September highs before bottoming

The 20 per cent drop in share prices which the S&P 500 was registering by then from a September peak could easily reach 40 per cent before bottoming.

The question is not how far the index has fallen but what reason there is for it or any other stock index to rise again in current circumstances.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... begun-stir
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:29 pm

A US Stock Market Crash Is a Real Possibility

BY JC PARETS, CMT

As breadth has gotten worse and momentum has confirmed downside pressure, I believe there is unlimited risk in the market right now. Nothing is out of the question.

I still think we use any rallies we do get as an opportunity to:
1) lighten up on any long positions and
2) short the stocks and sectors that perform the worst, or not at all, if/when the indexes have their counter-trend rallies.


Source: Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/news/us-st ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:28 pm

Kass: These Are My Top 10 Fears Right Now

All signposts lead me to conclude that a stock market topping process is still very much in play.

By DOUG KASS

Here Is a Top 10 List of Some of My Fears This Weekend:-

1. Domestic economic growth weakens, Chinese growth fails to stabilize and Europe enters a recession.

2. U.S./China fail to agree on trade.

3. President Trump institutes an attack on European Union trade by raising auto tariffs.

4. U.S. Treasury yields fail to ratify an improvement in economic growth.

5. The market leadership of FANG and Apple (AAPL) subsides.

6. Earnings decline in 2019 and valuations fail to expand.

7. The Mueller report jeopardizes the president.

8. A hard and disruptive Brexit.

9. Crude oil supplies spike and oil prices collapse -- taking down the high-yield market.

10. European Central Bank President Draghi is replaced by a hawk.


Source: Real Money

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investi ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:02 pm

The Probability of Another 20%+ Drawdown is Higher Than You Might Expect

Although it may seem counterintuitive, after already having experienced a 20% drawdown, the S&P 500 was almost twice as likely to fall over the next year and when it did fall, the average return was nearly 7% worse.


Source: ETF Trends

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/probabil ... 27742.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:31 pm

These Are the Signs a U.S. Recession May Be Coming
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:49 pm

Warren Buffett Can’t Find Anything Big to Buy
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... 00515.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:22 am

Here’s what hedge-fund manager Doug Kass foresees triggering a one-day stock plunge of 5%

By Barbara Kollmeyer

“A weakening global economic recovery, a faltering corporate profit picture, untenable debt loads, political turmoil (and the risk of an increasingly untethered President) provide an unsound foundation to markets that have had such a spirited rally.”


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what- ... 2019-02-28
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:53 am

Why a bomb like the one that blew up markets in 2008 may be ticking right now

By Shawn Langlois

CLOs are similar to CDOs, in that each pools multiple loans to create synthetic, bond-like investments.

Basically, CLOs are set up to be a safer way to increase the leverage on a portfolio of debt.

Instead of mortgages, subprime and otherwise, in CDOs, CLOs repackage corporate loans, and consumer credit, such as car loans.

There’s currently $700 billion in outstanding CLOs around the world right now, with annual new issues of more than $100 billion, similar to what we saw in the infamous subprime CDOs in 2008.

Corporate-loan portfolios typically are made up of fewer and larger loans, which increases concentration risk.

Leveraged loans are highly sensitive to economic conditions and defaults may be correlated, with many loans experiencing problems simultaneously.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a ... 2019-03-04
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:33 pm

We're in the Middle of a Sucker Rally Right Now

In a market full of noise it pays to focus on individual fundamentals. One of my favorite phrases is 'cash flow never lies.'

By JIM COLLINS

The Nasdaq has been flying this week on the back of Friday's atrocious jobs number, and - while I certainly never overreact to one piece of data, especially a non-scientific one like the BLS non-farm payrolls report - that makes me believe we are in the midst of a sucker rally for tech stocks.


Source: The Street

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investi ... yptr=yahoo
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