Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Apr 20)

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:17 am

Stocks are poised for an 18% hit, warns economist who nailed last financial crisis

By Shawn Langlois

“I give a business downturn starting this year a two-thirds probability”.

Pointed to factors such as the near-inversion in the Treasury yield curve, the nasty December for stocks, weaker housing activity, soft consumer spending, etc.

“Then there are the effects of the deteriorating European economies and decelerating growth in China as well as President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war with that country”.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock ... op_stories
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:13 pm

Inversions and aversions

Europe’s economy is more worrying than America’s yield-curve inversion

Bond markets are sounding warnings on both sides of the Atlantic. But the message is much worse in Europe

ON MARCH 22ND Germany’s worst manufacturing survey in seven years sent investors rushing to buy bonds. For the first time in three years yields on German ten-year government debt fell below zero, meaning that investors are willing to pay to hold it.

And later that day in America the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds fell beneath that on the three-month variety. The last time that happened was 2007, one of the “inversions” in bond-market yields that preceded each of the past seven American recessions.

These bond-market blues are fuelling concern that the global upswing in 2017 and 2018 is making way for a slump. There are reasons to worry. Tax cuts have boosted demand in America but will not be repeated; China has slowed; the trade war grinds on.

However, indiscriminate global gloom is a mistake. America and Europe are in vastly different positions. Only Europe should be a cause of deep concern.

America’s inverted yield curve suggests that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate rise in December, its ninth in three years, will be its last for now. But that does not mean recession is imminent.

The Fed has recognised—belatedly—that the risks to growth have risen, as Jerome Powell, its chairman, confirmed on March 20th. And America is in a position of relative strength. Unemployment is low; consumers are flush with cash; and underlying inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% target (see article).

Europe is in a tighter spot. Although America may have finished raising rates, the euro zone has never got started. Growth this year could be little more than 1%. Wage growth is muted, inflation is below target and Italy is in recession. With rates close to zero, the response of the European Central Bank (ECB) has been to postpone monetary tightening and to provide more cheap funding for banks.

Its willingness to do more may be limited. On March 27th Mario Draghi, its head, said that the ECB sees its inflation forecast as having been “delayed rather than derailed”.

The primary cause of Europe’s slowdown—and particularly Germany’s—is falling global trade, notably China’s slackening demand for goods. The continent relies on Asian markets far more than America does and China slowed in late 2018.

Policymakers there are now trying to stimulate the economy. A rebounding China could yet come to Europe’s rescue, especially if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping strike a trade deal.

That the fate of the euro zone should depend on Beijing and Washington is a dereliction of duty. It is an economic superpower with its own fiscal and monetary levers. It should be countering downturns itself.

More unconventional monetary stimulus will be hard thanks to northern Europe’s horror of appearing to create money to finance deficits. But the euro zone has room for fiscal stimulus. Its aggregate budget deficit was just 0.6% of GDP in 2018. Its net public debt was 69% of GDP.

Because Europe lacks a centralised fiscal policy—itself a failure of politicians—the onus is on individual countries. Those with healthy finances, such as Germany and the Netherlands, could enact a co-ordinated budgetary loosening. They should focus on tax cuts and boosting public-sector infrastructure and defence spending.

Unless they do, the euro zone risks falling back into stagnation—the trap it faced after the financial crisis. For the euro zone to tolerate that risk in the name of prudence is self-defeating. Astonishingly, the chances are that it will.

Source: The Economist
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 39914
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:23 am

Cause for jubilation is very much exaggerated

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-f ... arkets-are
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:57 am

The Perfect Storm

Here are five crash factors at play today:
1. Debt at all-time highs.
2. A low-pressure movement of rising rates.
3. An obvious stock bubble churning on-shore.
4. A gale-force bond bubble.
5. An entire class of investors running towards the approaching tsunami

Source: Critical Signals Report
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun May 19, 2019 4:26 pm

4 SIGNS OF MORE MARKET TROUBLE AHEAD

1. Bullish sentiment is dangerously high.
2. The yield curve points to protracted stock market volatility ahead.
3. The risk of a recession increased sharply in the past month.
4. Earnings growth is more precarious than most observers think.

Source: Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/4-reasons- ... yptr=yahoo
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Wed May 22, 2019 4:39 pm

Kyle Bass Is 'Very Long Dollars' in Bet Against Hong Kong
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/finance/other ... vi-AABGQee
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 39914
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:48 pm

3 Black Swans That Could Cause The Next Stock Market Crash

1. Collapsing valuations of private companies spurred by Uber, Lyft declines after IPOs
2. Escalating crises in Iran and Venezuela that send oil prices soaring
3. Far-left candidate becomes serious contender for U.S. presidency in 2020


Source: Investopedia

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d3f392df-6c ... could.html
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:55 pm

郭台銘:世界經濟 將在數月內急劇變化
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2gyXDbfEsA
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
behappyalways
Millionaire Boss
 
Posts: 39914
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:22 am

Short-term market risks

1. Trade War with China
While relations have broken down recently, there are many reasons for both sides to make a deal. In what will be the biggest catalyst for a market move higher, if a deal gets done, investors need to be invested.

2. 2020 Recession – The recent pullback in stocks has brought about questions on the possibility on a recession in the next year. The yield curve has inverted, which can be a sign of trouble. However, most economic indicators still show strength. Stocks are a forward-looking indicator and could at the moment be pricing in the probability of a recession in the next couple years.

3. Volatility – The VIX has been elevated this year, meaning markets are nervous about something. While some risks are obvious, some are sometimes not seen until they show their ugly face. A high VIX signals there is something beneath the covers.

Source: Zack's
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:41 am

Brace for a global recession unlike any other

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... sed-us-and
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Archives

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 2 guests

cron