Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Apr 20)

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 30, 2019 8:01 am

What are the biggest risks for stocks in 2020?

By TEE LIN SAY

PETALING JAYA: The uncertainty on Malaysia’s political transition, an ongoing trade war between the US and China, fears of a recession and the US Presidential elections, are just some of the risks that could affect the performance of Malaysian stocks in 2020.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ks-in-2020
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:30 am

An Epic Stock Market Crash Is Looming, Analysts Warn
https://www.ccn.com/an-epic-stock-marke ... ysts-warn/
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:30 am

Markets are primed for reversal. Here's five events that could trigger it in 2020-21

1. Liquidity Crisis
2. Meltdown of Derivatives Market
3. Cyberattack
4. Talk of Recession
5. Trade War


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... er-2020-21
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:57 am

The S&P 500 is now more overvalued than ever, per this measure

The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.29% is trading at 18.6 times forward earnings.

Price relative to sales for the S&P 500 is at a record high, “well in excess of what they were in 2000 or 2007 at those peaks”.

The median price to earnings ratio — which exclude the skewed effects of very profitable and very unprofitable companies — shows the S&P 500 overvalued by nearly 30% versus the typical valuation level seen since 1964.

Looking at the ratio of market valuations to overall profits suggests “P/E ratios are some 80% above the long-term norm”.

The average dividend yield for S&P 500 stocks is at 2%, according to FactSet data, above the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield of 1.87%.

Typically, the S&P 500 dividend yield trades 20% below the 10-year yield, he said, suggesting that relative to interest rates, the stock market has more room to run.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... ck_seemore
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:41 am

Don’t Discount A Black Swan Event For China

by Kenneth Rapoza

The market needs to pay attention to China's move towards authoritarianism. That move could hamper relations with the U.S. even more and cause headaches for global firms.

One obvious black swan is unrest in the Middle East, to which China is exposed as the largest importer of crude oil from the region.

Domestically, recent viral outbreaks have revived memories of the 2003 SARS epidemic. That could get out of hand, a potential black swan.

There is also the risk of bond bailouts and bankruptcies in the small and mid-cap company space that could eventually blow up a brand named corporation, or bank, that the market is familiar with.

“Our forecast makes no allowance for supply-chain adjustments in response to the trade war, which could have a lasting negative impact on the economy”.

Marco Rubio wants to have indexers like MSCI to remove Chinese securities from their benchmarks, ultimately banning investors from owning them.


Source: Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... f5a0f73294
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:29 pm

From a U.S. stock surge to a bursting of China’s triple bubble, here are 10 possible shockers for 2020, according to Credit Suisse

By Steve Goldstein

China’s gross domestic product growth slumps to below 4%. The Credit Suisse team warns of a triple bubble in credit, real estate and investment, and says that in Japan, the U.S., Ireland and Spain, recessions happened within a year of house prices falling.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/from- ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:46 pm

Guggenheim Says Central Bank-Driven ‘Ponzi Scheme’ Must Collapse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-collapse
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:09 pm

If the economy is good, why do so many big American companies look so unstable?
https://www.businessinsider.sg/us-econo ... bt-2020-2/
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:41 pm

If slowing growth, unsound financial systems and the coronavirus don’t trigger a market meltdown, central banks will
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... virus-dont
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:12 pm

U.S. Stock Market Appears Most Vulnerable to Virus Shock
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... nd=opinion
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