Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Apr 20)

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:32 am

Hedge Fund Trader Who Called 2008 Crash Lists 3 Biggest Threats To US Stocks

by Tyler Durden

The first is a perennial source of concern among sell-side analysts across Wall Street (warnings we have echoed in the past): The blackout period for corporate share buybacks, which hits around the release of quarterly earnings.

Secondly, Pal brought up an issue that has captivated investors over the past month: The complications in the repo market.

Finally, Pal said the third biggest issue facing stocks is Baby Boomers cashing in their chips as they prepare for retirement.


Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge ... newsletter
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:54 pm

Stock Market Crash Near? Nobel Laureate Sees 'Bubbles Everywhere'
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6718c3d9-44 ... ar%3F.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:47 am

20 risks to markets in 2020

1. Continued increase in wealth inequality, income inequality and healthcare inequality.

2. Phase one trade deal remains unsigned, continued uncertainty about what comes after phase one.

3. Trade war uncertainty continued to weigh on corporate capex decisions.

4. Ongoing slow growth in China, Europe and Japan Triggering significant US dollar appreciation.

5. Impeachment uncertainty & possible government shutdown.

6. US election uncertainty; implications for taxes, regulation and capex spending.

7. Antitrust, privacy and tech regulation.

8. Foreigners lose appetite for US credit and US Treasuries following Presidential election.

9. MMT-style fiscal expansion boosts growth significantly in US and/or Europe.

10. US government debt levels begin to matter for long rates.

11. Mismatch between demand and supply in T-bills , another repo rate spike.

12. Fed reluctant to cut rates in election year.

13. Credit conditions tighten with more differentiation between CCC and BBB corporate credit.

14. Credit conditions tighten with more differentiation between CCC and BBB consumer credit.

15. Fallen angels: More companies falling into BBB. And out of BBB into HY.

16. More negative-yielding debt sends global investors on renewed hunt for yield in US credit.

17. Declining corporate profits means fewer dollars available for buybacks.

18. Shrinking global auto industry a risk for global markets & economy.

19. House price crash in Australia, Canada and Sweden.

20. Brexit uncertainty persists.

Source: Deutsche Bank

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/09/here-ar ... KW,3G4SN,1
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:19 am

Political risk may spread like wildfire

by Andrew Wong

Here's a snapshot of other risks, in addition to the current problems in Hong Kong.

Serious clashes between police and civilians broke out recently in Santiago, Chile while in Lebanon, the government's move to impose new taxes triggered the biggest demonstrations there since 2015.

Ecuador's witnessed days of protests by its indigenous people over the removal of subsidized fuel prices, and the Argentine government's earlier surprise announcement on capital controls caused market turmoil.

And then there's the French yellow vest protest movement, which has festered for a year now.


Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 1111&sid=2
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:29 pm

Investors are ignoring two major risks to stocks, warns fund manager

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Investors are ignoring two risks right now—the “high valuation and age of this bull market and the risks it poses for the long run.”


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inves ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:47 pm

The repo market is ‘broken’ and Fed injections are not a lasting solution, market pros warn
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-r ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:35 pm

Will This Grinch Stop the Santa Claus Rally?

by Aaron Task

Historically, bull markets end because of some combination of...
1. Overaggressive tightening or other policy errors, which can tip the economy into recession
2. War or another geopolitical shock
3. Runaway inflation, which can erode the value of corporations' future cash flow
4. Rampant speculation, such as occurred in the Roaring '20s and late 1990s.

"Other policy errors" top the list right now in terms of the potential to scuttle the bull market. That's because of President Trump's unpredictable nature.

Source: The Oxford Club
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:49 pm

Headwinds

a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Global Debt (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$6t
h. US Social Security & Medicare Short-Fall: US$100t; 2034 Bankrupt; US$3t US Treasuries
i. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
j. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
k. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
l. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
m. US Student Debt: US$1.7t
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:49 pm

What Could Cause A Recession In 2020

by Bill Conerly

International conditions—both weak growth abroad and President Trump’s trade conflicts—constitute the greatest risk to the economy right now.

Europe and China have clearly decelerated, though both continue to grow.

Global industrial production has flatted, according to the tabulations by CPB’s World Trade Monitor and global trade across national borders has actually declined.

The second most likely cause of a recession in 2020 is overly tight monetary policy.

The third potential cause of a recession that I hear people worry about is consumers being too far in debt.


Source: Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerl ... e411b314b4
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:49 am

Central Banks Overextended Balance Sheets

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... ed-balance
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