Mini bear-market in Bonds
Source: SCMP
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... tors-amass
Event #1: Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Resulting in War
Event #2: A Trade Breakthrough or Breakdown with China
Event #3: An Interest Rate Cut
1. Trade and technology war
2. China crisis
3. The great Brexit debacle
4. Military conflict
1. U.S. government debt
2. U.S. corporate debt
3. U.S. leveraged loans
4. European debt
5. Bank of Japan (BoJ) balance sheet and related equity holdings
6. Unprofitable IPOs
7. Cryptocurrencies and cannabis
8. Growth and Momentum stocks
9. Software and Cloud Computing stocks and
10. ETFs.
The U.S. is too tight for the world economy.
“The country with the world’s reserve currency has the highest policy rate out there in the developed world,” Muir wrote, pointing to the chart above.
“If we look back over time, this has often coincided with market crises.”
“The next 5%-10% in the stock market is more likely to be down than higher.”
1. Manufacturing sector: “basically contracting around the world”
2. The Federal Reserve might be headed down a similar monetary path as Japan and Europe
3. It is low interest rates that are responsible for weak economic growth
4. Most of the major countries around the world have slowing economies
5. Failed tech IPOs are “signs of excess” that are typically associated with the late stages of an economic expansion cycle
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