Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 24)

Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:48 pm

Emerging-Market Bulls Start to Overtake the Bears, Survey Shows

After two quarters of declines, developing-nation assets will find a floor and remain stable in the final three months of the year as central banks from Argentina to Turkey move to defend their currencies.

Latin America eclipsed Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa as the region with the best prospects for currencies and bonds, while Asia was at the top for equities.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging ... 00969.html
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Nov 03, 2018 7:09 am

Emerging-market stocks are at bargain prices, but should you buy?

Nicholas Spiro says the sharp sell-off in emerging markets has now created an opportunity for bargain hunters

However, risks and vulnerabilities continue to weigh on sentiment, especially in China, where the yuan is down and capital outflow is growing

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... ain-prices
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:19 pm

Traders Put $1.3 Billion Into Emerging ETFs

by Aline Oyamada

Inflows to U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds that invest across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries hit $1.28 billion in the week ended Nov. 23, bringing this year’s total to $20.5 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

That is the sixth consecutive week of inflows.

While inflows into all emerging market ETFs this year remain well short of the $47 billion posted in 2017, the recent pick-up shows investors are growing more confident in the asset class after the strong selloff at the end of the first half of the year, when investors removed more than $10 billion from emerging-market ETFs in eight weeks.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders- ... 18153.html
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:20 pm

Traders Suddenly Dare to Believe in an Emerging-Market Rally

By Netty Idayu Ismail , Lilian Karunungan , Aline Oyamada and Robert Brand

Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia set to hold interest rates
The dollar has peaked, supporting emerging markets: Fidelity

“The U.S. dollar has now peaked, Fed policy has turned and China is responding to slower growth momentum with monetary and fiscal stimulus”.

All of these factors, coupled with cheap valuations and a recovering oil price, should be supportive for EM risk-asset performance.”


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gn=markets
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:40 am

Why the emerging market rally may run out of steam despite a strong start to the year

Nicholas Spiro says investors should pay attention to the slowdown in China’s economic growth, uncertainty over the outcome of trade negotiations and risks in US monetary policy before taking a bullish stance on developing economies

The nearly 20 per cent fall in the MSCI Emerging Market Index from its peak last January has helped push down the gauge’s forward price-to-earnings ratio – a popular valuation tool – to 11, its lowest level since the 2015-16 China-led sell-off.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... -out-steam
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:05 pm

2019.01.13【文茜世界財經週報】泰國長期紅黃對立 難以攜手終結軍政府
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybmCay_ ... wlqT1IXpxu
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:12 pm

Why The Pain Isn't Over Yet for Emerging Markets

There are many factors that will stall the emerging market rally, including a likely surging dollar.

by Simon Constable

EM investors should brace themselves for more losses. Here's why:
1. International Trade
2. Heavy Oil Prices
3. King dollar


Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/eme ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:19 pm

A Deep Dive into Emerging Markets[/b]

Broadly speaking, the emerging markets outperformed the S&P 500 from 2003 through 2010, underperformed sharply from 2010 until early 2016 and have performed more or less in line with the S&P 500 since early 2016.

There are 4 basic legs to our rationale for buying EEM right now:
#1: We’re Bullish on the S&P 500 in 2019
#2: We’re Bearish on the US dollar in 2019
#3: The Chinese Economy is Likely to Gain Steam in 2019
#4: Emerging Markets Look Cheap on an Absolute and Relative Basis


Source: MoneyShow

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deep-div ... 00711.html
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:47 am

Buters Beware. Slowdowns in advanced economies have pushed investors to put money back in EM

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/30 ... k-emerging
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:09 am

Currencies of emerging markets flashing a warning

SINGAPORE: The year has been great so far for risk assets from stocks to credit, and emerging-market assets have joined in the party. Except, recently, for their currencies.

Among the observations in a widening debate on the missing gains: some fund managers highlight their greater sensitivity to the risks of a global slowdown.

The fact that these exchange rates have largely gone sideways since the end of January, suggests continuing worries even as global equities build on their first-quarter surge.

Conversely, any pick-up in developing-nation exchange rates could be a good sign that the global appetite for risk is truly back in bullish mode.

While bonds and stocks have been able to take heart from central banks’ shift away from policy normalisation, for the currency market, it’s going to take actual evidence of an acceleration in growth before a reaction occurs. That’s the thinking of Bryan Carter, head of emerging-market fixed income at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London.

The very reason for the Fed’s about-face after all was the sluggish economic data and growing risk of a “growth shock,” Carter said.

“We don’t see FX outperforming until the data in Europe and emerging markets convincingly demonstrate an upturn, and investors reset their forward growth expectations higher.”

Dirk Willer, head of emerging-market fixed income strategy at Citigroup Global Markets in New York, puts particular blame on the euro region, saying that a weak euro has held back a rally in a number of other currencies against the dollar. That in turn has stemmed in part from the slowdown in China, on which the region has increasingly relied.

With better China purchasing manager indexes, “we may be able to look forward to a turn in eurozone data as well. The pessimism surrounding the euro may start to fade, removing a headwind for EM FX,” he said.

After a decade of easy money from the rich world’s central banks, developed-nation fund managers might have largely had their fill of emerging market currencies. It’s a phenomenon that Institute of International Finance analysts including chief economist Robin Brooks call “EM positioning overhang.”

That’s why the Fed’s dovish pivot this year – which has helped stoke the rally in everything from stocks to corporate bonds – isn’t having such a big impact on some exchange rates, they argue.

IIF international portfolio tracking data show “the volume of flows to have been on a steadily declining trend for many years, with each successive dovish shift from the Fed less potent than the one before,” the group wrote last month.

Kiran Kowshik at UniCredit Bank AG said he and his colleagues “aren’t really convinced” by the “overhang” theory. Instead, he highlighted in an April 2 note that foreign-direct investment inflows (FDIs) “have stagnated at weaker levels” for emerging markets. FDI and current-account flows didn’t tend to shift quickly based on shifting central bank policies or global risk appetite, he noted.

The bigger problem is that emerging-market growth has suffered a structural slowdown in recent years, offering little incentive for developed-nation investors to pour in.

Another flow dynamic to note: the moves that some current-account deficit countries took to reduce their vulnerabilities since the 2013 taper tantrum are largely done, he argued.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... XZh6wm8.99
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