Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 24)

Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:44 pm

Emerging markets are in a correction. Expect more pain, warns trader

by Keris Lahiff

The EEM ETF is now flashing bearish signals, he said. It is currently in a solid downtrend after tumbling more than 5 percent in June, its worst month since February.

Gordon sees it now setting up for another leg lower as its charts form a corrective pattern.


Source: CNBC

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/377df41c-27 ... -in-a.html
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:39 pm

Emerging markets should trade at far lower multiples due to their higher risk profile

But investors are enamored with their higher growth profile and pay up for it.

When growth disappoints and risk resurfaces, they rush for the exits—as they are in Turkey.

We sold our Turkish stocks as early as first-quarter 2016; risks were rising and we were not being paid to assume them.

I would wait for a larger correction before jumping in.

Source: Barron's

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-tw ... 20Magazine
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:09 am

Investors pull US$1.3b from emerging markets stocks

Investors rattled by events in China, Turkey and South Africa, have pulled US$1.3 billion from emerging market stocks in the last week and US$100 million from emerging bonds according to the Institute of International Finance, which tracks financial flows, Reuters reports.

"Tail risks have increased ... and we are cautious in the short term given the escalation of risks in key EM economies," said Ewout van Schaick, head of multi-asset at NN Investment Partners.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking- ... 0817&sid=2
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:10 pm

Strong dollar puts these emerging markets in danger of following Turkey’s slide

By Jacob Shapiro

Massive U.S. dollar-denominated debt is a ‘ticking time bomb’

Turkish lira, the Iranian rial, the Russian ruble, the Indian rupee, the Argentine peso, the Chilean peso, the Chinese yuan and the South African rand.

Turkey was one of the most vulnerable on the list, but there are four other countries facing similar challenges: Argentina, Mexico, Chile and Indonesia.

Brazil, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Russia and South Africa face different but related problems.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stron ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:35 am

4 reasons why big-name strategists are wrong about investing in emerging markets

By Howard Gold

Indonesia, Turkey and Argentina show why investors should avoid this overhyped asset class

Four big reasons not to buy emerging markets, especially in the midst of currency contagion.

1. Despite what herd-following financial advisers tell you, faster economic growth does not translate into higher stock-market returns.

2. Big index providers FTSE and MSCI have added Chinese A shares (stocks traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges) to their emerging-market indexes in recent years. That means giant EM index funds and ETFs, including the largest, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO, have 36%-40% of their holdings in China.

3. Emerging markets are still in a long-term “secular” bear market.

4. Over long periods emerging markets are far more volatile than U.S. stocks.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-rea ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:13 pm

Hedge Fund That Called Emerging-Market Selloff Sees Turnaround

By Ben Bartenstein

Visser called ‘significant correction’ at peak of stock rally
He favors Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Chinese stocks

Portfolio flows into emerging markets slowed to $2.2 billion last month from $13.7 billion in July.

The backdrop today is far messier with sanctions, tariffs and more Fed tightening. As a result, investors should be more patient diving back into Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Russia.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sto ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:13 pm

Hedge Fund That Called Emerging-Market Selloff Sees Turnaround

By Ben Bartenstein

Visser called ‘significant correction’ at peak of stock rally
He favors Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Chinese stocks

Portfolio flows into emerging markets slowed to $2.2 billion last month from $13.7 billion in July.

The backdrop today is far messier with sanctions, tariffs and more Fed tightening. As a result, investors should be more patient diving back into Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Russia.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sto ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:29 am

Contagion fear: emerging markets’ currency crises spook investors far and wide. How will Asia fare?

Patrik Schowitz says that as bad as the news has been for emerging markets, particularly Turkey,

Argentina and South Africa, there’s little risk of a total meltdown among Asia’s emerging economies, where fundamentals look sound

First, uncertainty can be more damaging than the event itself;

Second, it is often in the currency or government debt markets – sometimes both – where geopolitical risks play out most strongly; and

Finally, equity markets can at times prove surprisingly resilient to political turbulence.


Within Asia, India, Indonesia and the Philippines, have seen (comparatively mild) currency weakness,


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... ises-spook
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:06 am

Crisis fears fade but US dollar holds key

by Andrew Wong

First of all, the biggest problem that concerns the market is the level of foreign debt.

Foreign debt of emerging markets in the region has significantly increased compared over the past ten years but still it accounts for only 34 percent of GDP on average, lower than the 59 percent relative to the other emerging markets.

Also, since the financial crisis in 1997, many countries have boosted their foreign exchange reserves sharply. Thailand's reserves are more than 160 percent of GDP, South Korea's is close to 100 percent, China's is more than 80 percent, and India is closer to 60 percent.

In addition, though many countries in the region - such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines - have current account deficits, their deficits do not exceed 1.6 per cent of GDP, on average.

All this data supports the view that the risk of a financial crisis in the region in the next three to six months is indeed small.

But what will happen in three to six months from now?

It all depends on the US dollar and this is something we must pay attention to. Foreign reserves bring defensive capabilities to a country, but if its currency is constantly impacted, its reserves will also fall sharply in the short term.


Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... r=20180924
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:42 am

Emerging markets, despite strengths, still get no respect

Emerging market stocks as a group are down more than 10.5 percent, while EM bonds are down more than 7.7 percent — the worst performance of any major global fixed-income asset class this year.

The biggest headwind for EM bonds as a group, however, is the rise in U.S. interest rates and the strength of the U.S. dollar. Both make EM bonds relatively less attractive.

Some in the industry see a buying opportunity.

by Andrew Osterland

The Indonesian 10-year sovereign bond yields 8.24 percent. Brazilian 10-year bonds pay 11.6 percent.

The Argentine peso has dropped by more than 50 percent this year, and the Turkish lira by nearly 40 percent.


Most fixed-income analysts don't see the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising beyond 3.25 percent, and expect the Fed to slow its rate hikes next year.


Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/emergin ... yourwealth
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