Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Apr 22)

Re: Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:24 pm

These Eight Charts Explain What's Happening in Markets Right Now

From inflation, manufacturing, and bond markets to global trade, change is afoot for financial markets.

by Sid Verma

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -right-now
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Re: Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:25 pm

Australia and New Zealand to pursue 'TPP 12 minus one'
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38725807
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US - Market Direction 39 (Oct 16 - Jun 17)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:39 pm

US, Europe and Hong Kong bullish
Thailand faces big test

27th February : The US markets have rallied substantially in the last few months but there is no sign of topping and the outlook is still bullish.

Europe has bottomed on good support. I expect further upside for Europe, but it is likely to be anemic.

The Euro still looks bearish.

Oil has bottomed but strong resistance is nearby.

Gold and silver are languishing; their trends are still long term bearish.

Thailand is facing a big test at its previous high of around 1,650. Breakout would be bullish. Turnover on the SET is persuasive of a bullish scenario but we need to wait for breakout.

Charts current to 24th February.
http://asiachart.com/

https://www.facebook.com/bartonsglobal/
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Re: Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:17 pm

On the rise

The global economy enjoys a synchronised upswing

The past decade has been marked by a series of false economic dawns. This time really does feel different


ECONOMIC and political cycles have a habit of being out of sync. Just ask George Bush senior, who lost the presidential election in 1992 because voters blamed him for the recent recession.

Or Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, booted out by German voters in 2005 after imposing painful reforms, only to see Angela Merkel reap the rewards.

Today, almost ten years after the most severe financial crisis since the Depression, a broad-based economic upswing is at last under way (see article). In America, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, all the burners are firing at once.

But the political mood is sour. A populist rebellion, nurtured by years of sluggish growth, is still spreading. Globalisation is out of favour. An economic nationalist sits in the White House.

This week all eyes were on Dutch elections featuring Geert Wilders, a Dutch Islamophobic ideologue (see article), just one of many European malcontents.

This dissonance is dangerous. If populist politicians win credit for a more buoyant economy, their policies will gain credence, with potentially devastating effects. As a long-awaited upswing lifts spirits and spreads confidence, the big question is: what lies behind it?

All together now

The past decade has been marked by false dawns, in which optimism at the start of a year has been undone—whether by the euro crisis, wobbles in emerging markets, the collapse of the oil price or fears of a meltdown in China. America’s economy has kept growing, but always into a headwind (see article).

A year ago, the Federal Reserve had expected to raise interest rates four times in 2016. Global frailties put paid to that.

Now things are different. This week the Fed raised rates for the second time in three months—thanks partly to the vigour of the American economy, but also because of growth everywhere else. Fears about Chinese overcapacity, and of a yuan devaluation, have receded.

In February factory-gate inflation was close to a nine-year high. In Japan in the fourth quarter capital expenditure grew at its fastest rate in three years. The euro area has been gathering speed since 2015. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index is at its highest since 2011; euro-zone unemployment is at its lowest since 2009.

The bellwethers of global activity look sprightly, too. In February South Korea, a proxy for world trade, notched up export growth above 20%. Taiwanese manufacturers have posted 12 consecutive months of expansion. Even in places inured to recession the worst is over.

The Brazilian economy has been shrinking for eight quarters but, with inflation expectations tamed, interest rates are now falling. Brazil and Russia are likely to add to global GDP this year, not subtract from it. The Institute of International Finance reckons that in January the developing world hit its fastest monthly rate of growth since 2011.

This is not to say the world economy is back to normal. Oil prices fell by 10% in the week to March 15th on renewed fears of oversupply; a sustained fall would hurt the economies of producers more than it would benefit consumers. China’s build-up of debt is of enduring concern.

Productivity growth in the rich world remains weak. Outside America, wages are still growing slowly. And in America, surging business confidence has yet to translate into surging investment.

Entrenching the recovery calls for a delicate balancing-act. As inflation expectations rise, central banks will have to weigh the pressure to tighten policy against the risk that, if they go too fast, bond markets and borrowers will suffer.

Europe is especially vulnerable, because the European Central Bank is reaching the legal limits of the bond-buying programme it has used to keep money cheap in weak economies.

The biggest risk, though, is the lessons politicians draw. Donald Trump is singing his own praises after good job and confidence numbers. It is true that the stockmarket and business sentiment have been fired up by promises of deregulation and a fiscal boost.

But Mr Trump’s claims to have magically jump-started job creation are sheer braggadocio. The American economy has added jobs for 77 months in a row.

No Keynes, no gains

Most important, the upswing has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s “America First” economic nationalism. If anything, the global upswing vindicates the experts that today’s populists often decry.

Economists have long argued that recoveries from financial crashes take a long time: research into 100 banking crises by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University suggests that, on average, incomes get back to pre-crisis levels only after eight long years.

Most economists also argue that the best way to recover after a debt crisis is to clean up balance-sheets quickly, keep monetary policy loose and apply fiscal stimulus wherever prudently possible.

Today’s recovery validates that prescription. The Fed pinned interest rates to the floor until full employment was in sight. The ECB’s bond-buying programme has kept borrowing costs in crisis-prone countries tolerable, though Europe’s misplaced emphasis on austerity, recently relaxed, made the job harder.

In Japan rises in VAT have scuppered previous recoveries; this time the government wisely deferred an increase until at least 2019.

The tussle over who created the recovery is about more than bragging rights. An endorsement for populist economics would favour insurgent parties in countries like France, where the far-right Marine Le Pen is standing for president. It would also favour the wrong policies. Mr Trump’s proposed tax cuts would pump up the economy that now least needs support—and complicate the Fed’s task.

Fortified by misplaced belief in their own world view, the administration’s protectionists might urge Mr Trump to rip up the infrastructure of globalisation (bypassing the World Trade Organisation in pursuing grievances against China, say), risking a trade war.

A fiscal splurge at home and a stronger dollar would widen America’s trade deficit, which may strengthen their hand. Populists deserve no credit for the upsurge. But they could yet snuff it out.

Source: The Economist
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Boredom Strikes! 05 (Jul 11 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:09 pm

Happiness report: Norway is the happiest place on Earth
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-39325206
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Re: Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:31 pm

These economies are seen improving dramatically this year
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/articl ... cally-year
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Re: Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:39 pm

Global growth surge could be over already as engines stutter, UBS warns
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ubs-warns/
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Re: Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:43 am

Goldman Sachs says if you thought 2017 was surprisingly good, just wait for 2018

"2017 is shaping up to be the first year of the expansion in which growth surprises to the upside," Goldman analyst Charles Himmelberg says.

"We expect 2018 to deliver more of the same," Himmelberg adds.

Himmelberg and his team expect the global economy to grow 4 percent on a real gross-domestic-product basis because of several factors.

by Fred Imbert

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman ... KW,15BRI,1
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Boredom Strikes! 05 (Jul 11 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:57 pm

How refrigeration revolutionised global trade
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41902071
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Re: Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:17 am

2018 likely to be serious year of reckoning for global economy

2018 is likely see the world embroiled in slower economic growth, yet higher inflation and interest rates, aka stagflation.

Devaluation of the US dollar will result in a monumental change. The 10 per cent decline of the dollar index this year is primary a consequence of runaway US budget deficits, which invariably permeates into the current account deficit, and then worsens net external position.

The US dollar will resume devaluing against metals, ores, energy, and other currencies. That the dollar index futures open interest, steered by money managers, is crashing speaks volumes.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/ ... al-economy
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