Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Apr 18)

Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:22 pm

Stocks Can Still Move Higher From Here

by Brett Eversole

Small businesses are as confident today as they’ve been in 34 years.

Extreme optimism in small-business owners is a sign the economy is healthy… and that we could have a few more years of gains ahead of us in the U.S. market.

We’re closer to the eventual top today than we were last year… But that doesn’t mean a crash is imminent. The best advice today is to stay long stocks.


Source: Daily Wealth

http://dailytradealert.com/2017/12/20/s ... ve-higher/
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:40 pm

You Don't Need to Predict a Market Crash... Here's Why

By Dan Ferris

Today, you need to prepare for poor returns and lower prices of financial assets.

1. Hold plenty of cash. Cash is a call option on future bargains. It will become most valuable to you when others find it in shortest supply.

2. Sell short the shares of deteriorating businesses. This is difficult. You'll need to manage your short book, aggressively exiting any time you think the wind is blowing too hard against you.

3. Buy value-priced assets wherever and whenever you find them. Don't let the mania prevent you from investing in a truly attractive situation.


Source: Extreme Value
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:05 pm

Never Trade Between These Two Times

by Karim Rahemtulla

Between 9:30 and 9:50 in the morning, stocks trade at their most unpredictable levels of the day.

Stocks react to overnight news, earnings results, geopolitical news and market pundits in the hours and minutes leading up to the open.

Then stocks open with a ton of investors making bets driven by news and nothing else. This is impulse buying and selling.

The market makers - those in charge of setting the prices based on supply, demand and experience - are making the prices.

If they see a ton of buying, the price will go up quickly - maybe even before the shares open.

If they see a ton of selling, they will do the opposite and drop prices sharply.

Rare cases aside, you are better off skipping the first 20 minutes of stock and options market trading.


Source: The Oxford Club
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:59 am

The ‘January effect’ predicts these five sectors will rise in 2018

by Nick Rokke

Source: Palm Beach Daily

http://thecrux.com/the-january-effect-p ... e-in-2018/
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:26 pm

Is It Time to Take Some Money Off the Table?

Only if you need the cash to remodel your kitchen

By JOHN JAGERSON AND WADE HANSEN

1. Rising Margin Debt Levels
2. Tax Reform
3. The Trend Is Your Friend


Source: SlingShot Trader

https://investorplace.com/2018/01/is-it ... lnqoqiWaM8
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:35 am

End of the ‘Melt Up’? When?

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

The ultimate market peak might not arrive until 2020.


Source: True Wealth

http://thecrux.com/end-of-the-melt-up-when/
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:46 pm

This mental mistake could ruin you, financially

by Justin Dove

Don’t get caught up in the belief you’ll ride overpriced securities to the top, then get out in the nick of time with big gains.

The basic mistake is believing you know where the market will go to such a degree of accuracy that you’ll be able to exit and enter profitably… which is the same basic mistake investors make all the rest of the time.

Prepare, don’t predict:
1. Hold cash.
2. Short weak businesses in weak industries.
3. Buy only when you have a sufficiently large margin of safety.


Source: The Crux

http://thecrux.com/this-mental-mistake- ... nancially/
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:22 am

Make hay - and hedge - while the sun shines on our markets, as change may arrive in a heart beat

Rising US rates and bond yields, plus a strengthening US dollar will sound the death knell to Asia’s equities bull market.

Asia’s current bull market is broadly sustainable, at least for the next quarter or two.


For near term indications of a price reversal, analysts will turn to technical analysis.

Each analyst may have a favourite set of indicators; I prefer to focus on just two:
1. The rate of change in price appreciation - which tends to accelerate irrationally as a blow off top forms and
2. The Advance-Decline measure, which tends to lose breadth in the late stage of bull market.


Medium term risks are best viewed through the prism of valuations.

Utilising standard “first order” valuation measures - price-earnings, price-book, and EPS forecasts - appear somewhat stretched, they are not excessively so; suggesting few signs of stress are apparent


The real risk to Asia’s growth - and by extension, the equity market rally:-
1. the spectre of rising interest rates in the US and
2. the withdrawal of central bank liquidity globally


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-fi ... change-may
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:24 am

How to Ride Out a Correction Like a ‘Market Stoic’

by Dr. David Eifrig

Stoicism: to find happiness, you must accept the present moment and the uncontrollable forces of nature… focus your efforts on things you can control… and not be consumed by desires.

In other words, you can’t get through life without accepting the things you can’t change during hard times.


For the 10% and 20% drops… they’re just part of the game.




Source: DailyWealth.com

http://dailytradealert.com/2018/01/20/r ... ket-stoic/
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Re: Market Timing 05 (Jan 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:44 pm

Markets Are About to Get Ugly According to These Charts

The U.S. Citi Economic Surprise index -- the rate at which data exceeds analyst expectations -- has started to fall after reaching a five-year high in December.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s index of the public’s uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy is climbing after reaching a three-year low in November.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets- ... 40429.html
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