by winston » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:09 am
INTEREST RATES
Threat level: Red-ish. 3 month/10 year spread inverts a third time. 5 year, and 2 year are below the 3 month treasury. Third 10 year/3 month inversion this year. The positive: the 2 year/10 year is not inverted.
The 3 month yield versus the 10 year: Spread climbs 6BP to -22BP. Widest by far of this bout of inversion.
The 2 year versus the 10 year: Spread climbs 6BP to 21BP. This is healing itself.
10 year: 2.133 versus 2.217%. Bonds continue surging. TLT is up over 5 points this week with a breakout and rally from its short cup with handle. A bit overbought so bonds likely come back some this week.
3 month: 2.354% versus 2.378%
2 year: 1.924% versus 2.067%
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). Last trade over 3% was November 2018. 2.6% for quite some time, then yields started higher, first run from November to January, then mid-March.
Source: Investment House
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"