Warning Signs 02 (Feb 15 - May 19)

Re: Warning Signs 02 (Feb 15 - Jun 19)

Postby winston » Thu May 24, 2018 8:15 am

Bonds are on the brink of sounding the recession alarm

by Dion Rabouin

“Now that the short end of curve is offering yields that are non-zero that’s a big shift”.

“We’ve been in this environment where for years to earn anything meaningfully above zero you really had to step out on the curve and in terms of risk.”

“I suspect we’ll see an inversion the end of this year or early 2019, which is a harbinger of recession probably in 2020.”

The yield curve inverted before the recessions of 1981, 1991, 2000 and 2008. In fact, it has predicted all nine U.S. recessions since 1955, with a lag time ranging from six months to two years.


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-mar ... 38116.html
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