Market Sentiment 04 (Jun 14 - Oct 17)

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.97; -0.96
VXN: 12.78; -0.85
VXO: 10.14; -0.78

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.76; -0.1

Bulls and Bears: Bulls made it 3 of 5 weeks over 60, this time hitting 61.8, a new high for this move. Starting to pile up the more extreme level.

Bulls: 61.8 versus 58.2

Bears: 17.6 versus 17.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.85; -0.03
VXN: 12.31; -0.34
VXO: 10.41; +0.01

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.98; +0.05. Still very high put/call ratio as the market breaks higher, perhaps closing downside positions versus buying protection.

A market breakout does that.

Bulls and Bears: Bulls hit another cycle high, making it 4 of 6 weeks above 60.0. Bears fell sharply.

Bulls: 62.7 versus 61.8
Bears: 16.7 versus 17.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.49; -0.27. This past week saw the situation where volatility rose with market gains. That is always worth noting in your bearish signals log, though VIX overall remains very low.

At this juncture, upside VIX sessions are more an indication that yes there can be a nearer term pullback/correction. This is contrasted with the situation where VIX is trending higher as the market trends higher.

A steady uptrend in VIX accompanying a steady uptrend in the market indices is an indication of a longer term, serious market top setting in.

VXN: 12.07; -0.67
VXO: 11.27; +0.73

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; +0.04

Bulls and Bears: Bulls backed off the cycle high but still held over 60%.
Bears remain unconvinced, jumping back up to levels three weeks back.

Bulls: 61.8 versus 62.7

Bears: 17.6 versus 16.7

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.47; -0.24
VXN: 12.75; -0.54
VXO: 10.65; -0.07
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; 0

Bulls and Bears: Bulls backed off again but remain over 61%. 6 of 8 weeks over 60%. Bears held steady at low levels.

Bulls: 61.2 versus 61.8
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.6

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 10.96; -0.85
VXN: 11.77; -0.94
VXO: 10.08; -1.92

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.08. Jumped over 1.0 Thursday and Tuesday.
At this juncture that simply looks like some protection buying.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls rallied to a new cycle high while bears slipped back a whole point. 7 of 9 weeks over 60%. Not at cycle lows for bears, but historically low.

Bulls: 63.1 versus 61.2
Bears: 16.5 versus 17.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.66; -0.64
VXN: 11.9; -0.57
VXO: 10.5; -0.67

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; -0.24

Bulls and Bears: Bulls fell back below 60 in a big drop. Bears back over 17. A bit of a bluster? Certainly in line with other sentiment we are hearing.

Bulls: 57.7 versus 63.1
Bears: 17.3 versus 16.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.28; +0.07
VXN: 10.57; -0.39
VXO: 9.15; -0.14

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.05


Bulls and Bears: Impressive back to back drops in bulls all the way to 53.4, almost 10 points in just two weeks. Market pulls back in a normal test and sentiment plunges. Wall of worry as USB says? Hmmm . . .

Bulls: 53.4 versus 57.7
Bears: 17.5 versus 17.3

Source: Investment House

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 12.96; -0.16
VXN: 12.66; -1.04
VXO: 13.34; +1.12

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.21; +0.08. 4 of 5 sessions back over 1.0 on the close, indicating a lot of protection purchases as well as some out and out playing the downside.

Racking up quite a few sessions, and if gets near 10 that would be getting toward an extreme level.

Bulls and Bears: Bulls recovered some lost ground after plummeting off the cycle high that saw several weeks of bullishness over 60%.

Bulls: 56.7 versus 53.4

Bears: 17.3 versus 17.5

Source: Investment House

[winston]

This chart shows that the market is approaching 'euphoric territory'

by Rebecca Ungarino

The BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator is now at 7, the highest level since July 2014.

The indicator, on a scale of one to 10, is derived from six measurements of sentiment:
1. hedge fund positioning,
2. credit market technicals,
3. equity market breadth,
4. equity flows,
5. bond flows and
6. long-only fund positioning.

Currently, the first three areas have reached what BofAML analysts deem "very bullish" levels.

As a result, the gauge's current level of 7 is closing in on a "sell signal,"

Source: CNBC

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-sho ... 47148.html

[winston]

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 12.96; -0.16
VXN: 12.66; -1.04
VXO: 13.34; +1.12

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.21; +0.08. 4 of 5 sessions back over 1.0 on the close, indicating a lot of protection purchases as well as some out and out playing the downside.

Racking up quite a few sessions, and if gets near 10 that would be getting toward an extreme level.

Bulls and Bears: Bulls recovered some lost ground after plummeting off the cycle high that saw several weeks of bullishness over 60%.

Bulls: 56.7 versus 53.4
Bears: 17.3 versus 17.5

Source: Investment House