Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 24)

Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:29 pm

How to Build a Portfolio That Will Handle Any Crisis By Brian Hunt and Ben Morris

Did last week's market volatility stress you out?

Did it make you worry about your retirement portfolio?

If you answered "yes" to either question, it means you're human… And you probably have too much money in stocks.

Or, maybe you simply have too much money in the wrong stocks.

Either way, today we'll show you how to fix this problem…

One of the most important reasons to build wealth is to reduce your worry… to reduce your stress levels. If you're glued to your computer every day, sweating each 1% or 2% move in the markets, something is wrong with your approach. It's time to adjust your "catastrophe-prevention plan."

A catastrophe-prevention plan is an all-inclusive wealth plan that dramatically reduces the risks to your financial well-being. You should consider this plan every time you make an investment decision.

For preventing catastrophe with individual investments, we suggest using intelligent position sizes and stop losses. For your overall portfolio, we suggest conducting regular position audits.

But at the core of any catastrophe-prevention plan is "asset allocation." This will have 1,000 times greater impact on your wealth than any single trade.

Asset allocation is the component of your wealth plan that deals with the amount of money you have in various assets. How much of your wealth is in cash? Stocks? Gold? Real estate? This is all under the umbrella of asset allocation.

The number one goal with asset allocation is to avoid making huge bets in just one asset class.

For example, many Enron employees suffered huge hits when the company went bankrupt in 2001. They kept all or most of their retirement account in Enron stock. They made huge asset allocation errors. They "bet the farm" on one horse (which turned out to be a loser).

People who borrowed lots of money to speculate in real estate back in 2006 were wiped out when housing prices collapsed. They bet it all on one idea and lost everything. The same goes for people who bet everything on tech stocks in 2000.

Again, when it comes to asset allocation, you want to spread your wealth around a handful of good ideas. That way, you're not vulnerable to losing everything if one idea doesn't work out. You want to own some cash… some shares of valuable businesses… some real estate… And so on. You want a wealth fortress that sits on a sturdy, diversified foundation.

When you practice sound asset allocation, you often have some holdings that "zig" when other holdings "zag." This makes it so a small market pullback will barely register on your radar… And in the case of an all-out financial storm (like many are predicting right now), you'll prevent catastrophe.

There's no "one size fits all" asset allocation plan. Different people have different financial goals… different obligations… and different risk tolerances.

However, we can follow a general plan of staying diversified… and staying safe. We can spread our wealth across various asset classes. Here is a "middle of the road" plan that can work for a lot of people…


Bonds (20%-30%)

When you buy a bond, you are loaning money to a government, an individual, or a business. Owning bonds allows you to collect steady streams of income and it gives you some diversification outside of stocks.

Today, we like municipal bond funds like the Nuveen Municipal Opportunity Fund (NIO). Munis still have a relatively high yield (NIO yields 6% today)… The income is free from federal taxes… They have historically low default rates, which makes them safe… And if you buy a "closed-end fund," you can often buy them at discounts to their underlying values.

Since we recommended buying NIO in DailyWealth Trader in October 2013, we've collected 9% in tax-free income… And we're up 17% on share-price gains.

We also hold a leveraged U.S. Treasury fund (UBT) in the DailyWealth Trader portfolio. It provides diversification… but not much income. This trade was meant to profit as interest rates fell… And it has worked out great. (We're up more than 40% since April.)


Precious metals (5%-10%)

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium could soar during a financial crisis. We suggest owning some physical metals in coin or bar form. And sometimes, it makes sense to own shares of precious metal miners and royalty companies. You can read about gold as disaster insurance right here.


Cash (10%-20%)

Cash is "dry powder"… It allows you to buy bargains if they appear. This is the cash in your bank account and your brokerage account. And you might even hold some in foreign currencies.

This is an extremely important part of your catastrophe-prevention plan. So important, our colleague Dr. David Eifrig dedicated the most recent issue of his Income Intelligence advisory to how you should hold cash. (It's called "The Cash Issue," and it's exceptional.) If you aren't a subscriber, this issue alone is worth the cost of a year's subscription. You can learn how to get access here.


Real estate (20%-30%)

This could be your own home… a producing farm… or a rental property. If you're looking for extreme diversification, consider buying real estate in a foreign country.

You might consider stocks that own or are involved in real estate part of this allocation, too.


Stocks (20%-30%)

Over the long term, stocks have averaged returns around 9% a year… So it's a good idea to hold stocks with some portion of your money. But be sure to diversify…

You can own some small growth stocks and some large, stable, dividend-payers… and stocks in all different market sectors (like consumer staples, financials, health care, and energy). You can buy domestic stocks and foreign stocks. You can buy individual names or simply own an index fund that holds lots of different companies.

"Trading for income" (our term for selling options on great, cheap companies) also fits into this category. Since launching DailyWealth Trader in May 2012, our closed trades using this strategy have averaged 13.5% annualized returns.

Outside of the five major asset classes mentioned, you may want to include collectibles in the mix, too. If you know a lot about antique cars, rare coins, or custom knives, these "hold-in-your-hand" assets can increase in value and provide more diversification to your portfolio (read our educational interview with the master of collectibles, Van Simmons, right here).

Again, keep in mind there's no such thing as a one-size-fits-all asset allocation… The right asset allocation for you is the one that lets you sleep well at night… especially when the stock market has a bad day.

If you're extremely risk averse, consider having more of your assets in cash and real estate. If you're able to accept more volatility, consider holding more of your assets in stocks.

Again, the key is to not bet it all on one type of investment. Don't make the insane mistake of betting your retirement all on one company… or all on the stock market.

Take some time this week to consider your catastrophe-prevention plan. If you're not confident in your asset allocation, start working toward your "sleep-well-at-night" balance today.


Source: www.growthstockwire.com
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:45 pm

The Most Important Wealth Secret You'll Ever Learn By Chris Hunter

What you are about to read flies in the face of everything your stockbroker or Wall Street adviser will tell you.

It's about the closest thing to heresy you can get in the investing world... and the newsletter business. It's also a key insight if you want to stay wealthy over time.

It is simply this: Stock picking alone won't help you hold on to wealth.

Unless you are very lucky... or very, very talented... you will struggle to pick the right stocks at the right time ALL the time. You will make mistakes. You will mess things up.

And unless you have the right discipline in place, sooner or later you will lose money.

That discipline is called "asset allocation." That sounds technical. But it's really just about how you spread your wealth over different types of investments.

This is backed by hard data. In fact, there is just ONE thing that explains the difference between a good investor and a bad one.
Don't miss these tools keeping you...

For instance, a well-known study in 2000 by Yale professor of finance Roger Ibbotson and Paul Kaplan of Morningstar showed that differences in asset allocation among mutual funds explained virtually all of the variance in their returns.

Differences in stock picks made virtually no difference to the variance in portfolio returns.

Common Sense Decisions

It's common sense, but you don't put 100% of your wealth in stocks in a savage bear market.

And you don't invest 100% of your wealth in bonds in times of runaway inflation.

This seems straightforward. But you'd be surprised how many investors skip over these fundamental decisions in the rush for the latest "hot stock."

This is nearly always a bad idea.

Before you even think about picking which individual stocks to own, you have three decisions to make. These are the three most important decisions you make as an investor.

1) Which assets to hold in your portfolio
2) In what proportions to hold them
3) When to change those proportions


Get these three decisions right, and long-term wealth creation and preservation will follow. Get them wrong, and you are unlikely to hold on to what you've worked hard to earn and save.

So what makes for a good asset allocation?

Today, I'd like to share with you what we've learned so far at Bill's family wealth advisory service, Bonner & Partners Family Office... where our goal is long-term wealth preservation.

7 Rules of Successful Asset Allocation

1) It will have a cash buffer– Having cash on board makes it easier to deal with a major downturn and the losses that come with it. Remember, you want to make sure you are not forced into dumping your investments in times of market stress.

The more cash you hold, the more of a buffer you have. Having cash on board also allows you to go bargain hunting when investments go on sale. In times of crisis, having enough cash to buy beaten-down assets is essential.

2) It will be an inflation beater – Your asset allocation must allow you to stay ahead of consumer price inflation. There is little use in putting together a portfolio that gets eaten away by inflation.

This is especially important given the sky-high deficits most advanced economies are running and the widespread money printing central banks are engaging in. We may not see a lot of inflation show up now. But that doesn't mean it won't show up in the future.

3) It will be able to withstand currency depreciation – This is particularly important if you are internationally mobile, as many Bonner & Partners Family Office members are.

There is no point in making big portfolio gains in a currency that is losing value. Or for that matter, leaving a portfolio vulnerable to the collapse of a currency (something that is now being talked about openly in the case of the euro).

4) It will be properly diversified – A prudent long-term portfolio will contain a mix of asset classes that reduce risk. It will also be well diversified within asset classes.

For example, the money you have in stocks should be diversified across sectors and geographies. Having all your stock market investments in Japanese nuclear stocks, for example, is a bad idea, even if you have only 10% of your total wealth invested in stocks.

5) It will take advantage of the "bargain counter" – The individual assets you own should only be bought when they are selling at what we like to call the "bargain counter."

If you buy when an asset is expensive you expose your portfolio to the risk of a large capital loss. Buying assets when they are selling at a discount to their estimated fair value increases your margin of safety.

6) It will follow sensible "position sizing" rules – Position sizing answers the question "How much should I own?"

The answer to this question varies. But as a general rule, never put more than 3% of your overall capital at risk on one stock position. This is one of the most effective ways of reducing the risk of a ruinous loss to your portfolio.

7) It will contain plenty of "off market" assets – "Off market" assets are assets that don't trade on a public exchange... things such as real estate, gems and stakes in private business ventures.

Putting all your money at risk in the financial markets (whether in stock markets, commodity markets, bond markets or currency markets) is too much of a risk.

For instance, owning a quality house... bought at a good value and soundly financed... is an excellent way of reducing overall portfolio risk. If you go about it right, you should own the home outright by retirement.

Owning a home debt free is one of the best protectors against financial crisis that there is. Owning a private business or investing in one is another great way to earn high returns on your capital.
The Icing and the Cake

Asset allocation is how serious investors think about investing.

At Bonner & Partners Family Office we call the returns you get from your asset allocation decisions "beta."

Beta is the result you get from getting the big trend right.

Once you've got your beta right, it's time to look at boosting those returns. We call this "alpha." Alpha is what you get by choosing the individual investments (stocks, bonds, etc.) best positioned to profit from the big trends.

Beta is the cake. Alpha is the icing on the cake.

The most important wealth secret you'll ever learn is understanding this relationship... and always starting with the cake first.

Most investors get this backward. And they suffer as a result.

Source: ETR
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:11 pm

This Man Found It... By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

My friend Meb Faber just wrote the book on asset allocation.

His book comes out in a week or two.

One of the main conclusions was quite shocking, actually. I'll share that with you today.

Meb and I talked about the conclusions from his upcoming book, and much more, in the latest episode of my free podcast, Inside True Wealth. (You can find that on iTunes or right here.)

In my opinion, Meb Faber tested what works in allocation the right way…

His book is titled Global Asset Allocation: A Survey of the World's Top Asset Allocation Strategies. In short, he tested the long-term performance of 15 or 20 of the best-known asset-allocation strategies.

"Asset allocation" is answering this question:

How much should I have in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, etc?

That is the big question in investing.

So what is the answer?

Again, Meb studied 15 or 20 of the most famous asset-allocation models to find out.

The main shocking conclusion from Meb's book was that it didn't really matter which asset-allocation model you choose. Sounds crazy, I know. But here's what Meb told me on the podcast…

I like to compare this to baking – as long as you have enough of the key ingredients, so butter, flour, sugar, chocolate chips – the cookies end up being pretty good.

The same goes with the portfolios… As long as you have some stocks, some bonds/fixed income, and some real assets, then the portfolios actually perform fairly similarly.

If you go back to 1972, the difference between the best and worst [of the 15 or 20 asset-allocation models] was only about 1.5% a year.
Without that much performance difference between the best and worst performing asset allocation models, Meb thinks that investors should focus on keeping their fees low as much as worrying about their allocations. He explained it on the podcast:

If you had perfect foresight back to 1972 and you picked the best performer… and paid your advisor 1% in fees on top of a 1.25% mutual fund fee… then you would have turned the best asset allocation strategy into the worst.

Most investors never see the fees. They get skimmed off the top. Investors don't see that because they don't go through the pain of writing a check.
Meb says you need to pay attention to the fees. One way to "get it" is to visualize it…

Imagine walking into your investment advisor's office each year – with $20,000 in cash – to give him in fees…

Say you have a $1 million dollar portfolio, and you're paying 2% in fees a year, that's $20,000. In a $10 million dollar portfolio, that's $200,000…

Visualize – instead of it automatically coming out of your account – having to go take $20,000 cash to your adviser each year.

The thing to remember is that you can't control the returns you get… But you can control the fees you pay.

Of course, do your homework on asset allocation… Meb's book is a good place to start, as it shows which strategies have performed the best. But be just as diligent on doing your homework on the fees you're paying.

As Meb learned in his study, the fees you pay can turn the best-performing strategy into the worst.

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon May 04, 2015 8:04 pm

How I Allocate My Investment Money By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

"Steve, how do you allocate your assets?"

My subscribers often want to know… but I hesitate to give them an answer.

It's not because it's a secret… It's because what I do is pretty darn far from the "mainstream" advice. I call it "opportunistic allocation."

I wouldn't recommend what I do for most people – but I will share what I do with you today.

Before I share what I do, let's briefly start with the mainstream advice…

The simplest version of the mainstream advice is the "60/40 portfolio" – that's 60 percent in stocks and 40 percent in bonds.

A 60/40 portfolio works well when you look back over 100 years of financial history…

Stocks have delivered significantly higher returns than bonds over history. However, stocks have been three times more risky (more volatile) than bonds, based on history. So by having a 60/40 portfolio, you can still earn stock-like returns – but you lower your risk dramatically.

This idea works, in principle. The problem is, you and I don't have 100 years to invest. Our investing lifetimes are much shorter.

Another problem is, sometime stocks (or bonds) are extremely overpriced, and therefore will not live up to their part of the bargain in the 60/40 portfolio during your investing time frame.

For example, in 1999, U.S. stocks were more expensive than they'd ever been in history. So in my personal portfolio, I avoided U.S. stocks for about a decade. Instead of 60% in stocks in 1999, I was personally more like 6% – or less – for a decade.

When stocks were so expensive in 1999, it would have been foolish to follow the mainstream advice over the next decade. In hindsight, you would have lost money on 60% of your portfolio – for 10 years.

Here in 2015 – after soaring since 2009 – stocks are getting "up there" in price again. They are no longer cheap.

And bonds are an even worse proposition… Hedge-fund manager Cliff Asness of AQR (http://www.AQR.com) – one smart guy – estimates that bonds will return less than 1% a year (after inflation) over the coming years.

So stocks might struggle over the long run. And bonds might deliver less than 1% a year after inflation over the long run. The mainstream advice of 60% stocks/40% bonds is starting to look pretty terrible.

So what can you do?

Here's what I do…

I am an "opportunistic" allocator… I typically sit with a lot of cash until something incredible comes along.

It doesn't matter if its stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, or whatever – it just needs to be exceptional.

I personally bought stocks heavily in late 2008/early 2009. It was an exceptional moment. I over-allocated to stocks – and did extremely well. Then, from 2011 until today, I've been buying real estate.

I'm currently over-allocated to real estate, by mainstream standards… You might call me "cash poor" because I've invested so heavily. But I'm okay with that. The opportunity has been too great. I had to act.

As you can see, I don't think about allocation like most people do…

I don't think about being 60/40 anything. Instead, I think, "What's my risk?" and, "What's my potential reward?" When I find something incredible, I'm in. So my personal allocations have been all over the place, in both asset classes and countries.

Today, I have almost no exposure to bonds. I do have some exposure to the stock market, but not a lot. Real estate is where I'm significantly "opportunistically" allocated today.

Emerging market stocks are much more appealing to me today than U.S stocks, as well. And I think commodities and precious metals will have a strong comeback someday. However, I'm far more invested in U.S. real estate today than I am in stocks or any other asset class – and I'm okay with that.

My "opportunistic investing" has worked out extremely well for me. But I worry about telling others what I do…

I've hesitated to share what I do with people because it can definitely be done the "wrong" way. It probably will be done the wrong way by most people… My fear in sharing this is that it will give somebody the license to over-allocate to a bad idea.

You can call me reckless, if you like. You could call me non-diversified, which is a cardinal sin as a 'legitimate" investor.

But how is allocating to the mainstream 60/40 portfolio over the next decade any better?

Following the mainstream advice, you'd buy stocks (that have already soared dramatically) and bonds (that probably won't make you any money after inflation) over the next 10 years.

Based on that, what good is the mainstream advice today?

Like I said, I've hesitated for years to share what I do… It's not right for most people. But it is what I do.

If you're an experienced investor and you think for yourself, then the right allocation might be some combination of the mainstream advice complemented with your own "opportunistic" allocations when truly exceptional opportunities appear.

This way, you are diversified, and you're not mindlessly stuck in overpriced or dead-end investments, blindly following a rule of thumb.

Well, now you know what I do – opportunistic allocation. It's not for everyone. It's not for most people. But it works for me…


Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:25 am

Negative Momentum Weighs On All The Major Asset Classes

http://www.capitalspectator.com/negativ ... t-classes/
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:07 pm

This Could Be the Most Valuable Hour You Spend All Year By Brian Hunt and Ben Morris

It's one of the simplest ideas in all of investing...

And it's one of the most important.

Today, we suggest taking some time to think about your "asset allocation"...

Once you get started, it shouldn't take you more than an hour per month... And it could save you hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of your life.

Asset allocation is the component of your wealth plan that deals with the amount of money you have in various assets. How much of your wealth do you hold in cash? Stocks? Bonds? Gold? Real estate? This all falls under the umbrella of asset allocation.

The No. 1 goal with asset allocation is to avoid making huge bets in just one asset class. This way, you're not vulnerable to losing everything if one idea doesn't work out.

For example, people who put all their wealth in tech stocks back in 1999 were completely wiped out when the tech market crashed in 2000-2002.

More people were wiped out during the 2006-2009 real estate crash because they placed all their wealth in overpriced homes. The key to investment success is to avoid these catastrophic losses that destroy retirement nest eggs.

Below, we'll revisit a simple asset-allocation plan we shared with you in January. And we'll demonstrate – with actual prices – how it not only reduced volatility this year... but also improved gains.

On January 12, we showed you "how to build a portfolio that will handle any crisis." Here's the breakdown of our "middle-of-the-road" asset-allocation plan:

Bonds: 20%-30%
Precious metals: 5%-10%
Cash: 10%-20%
Real estate: 20%-30%
Stocks: 20%-30%

In our essay, we explained how to think about each asset class. For example, for real estate, we said:

This could be your own home... a producing farm... or a rental property. If you're looking for extreme diversification, consider buying real estate in a foreign country.

You might consider stocks that own or are involved in the real estate part of this allocation, too.

Take a look back at that essay for more details on how to allocate your wealth. Today, we're focusing on performance... using a simplified version of our asset-allocation plan.

For our bond allocation, we're looking at the performance of Nuveen Municipal Opportunity Fund (NIO).

For precious metals, we're using the Central Fund of Canada (CEF). This fund holds a mix of physical gold and silver.

For cash, we'll use the U.S. dollar (which doesn't change, in dollar terms).

For real estate, we're using the median price of existing homes sold in the U.S. This is a monthly figure.

And for stocks, we're using the S&P 500 Total Return Index. This index tracks the percent change in the S&P 500 and includes dividends.

You can see the performance of all these assets so far this year in the chart below...

Please Enable Images to See this

If you had all your money in stocks, you would have experienced a gut-wrenching 11.1% drop in your net worth last month. Year-to-date, you would be down 4.7%.

But if you had followed our middle-of-the-road asset-allocation plan, you would have fared much better.

In the hypothetical portfolio below, we divided our money between the different asset classes on the first day of the year.

Specifically, we allocated our money like this:

Bonds: 25%
Precious metals: 10%
Cash: 15%
Real estate: 25%
Stocks: 25%

As you can see below, with this diversified portfolio, the worst drawdown (peak to trough) you would have experienced was 3.4%... from late January to early March. As of Friday, your net worth would be up 0.7% on the year.

Please Enable Images to See this

This is a simple example. But it tells an important story...

When you practice intelligent asset allocation, market corrections like the one last month will barely register on your radar. You'll have a diversified portfolio with components that "zig" when other components "zag." More importantly, in the case of an all-out financial storm, you'll prevent catastrophe.

Take an hour to think about your holdings today. It could turn out to be the most valuable 60 minutes you spend all year.


Source: Daily Wealth Trader
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:50 am

The Best And Worst Performing Assets In October And YTD

By Tyler Durden

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/11 ... r-and-ytd/
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 30, 2015 9:44 pm

Global funds raise U.S. equity holdings, eye emerging markets for 2016 bounce

BY CLAIRE MILHE

Emerging Europe is thought likely to receive a boost from any extra ECB stimulus, as those economies are closely linked to recovery in Western Europe.


Asia's manufacturing hubs too should benefit from persistent low oil prices and any pick up in U.S. consumer spending.


Investors ramped up Asian ex-Japan bond holdings


"We believe the yields on offer for hard and local currency EM debt don't offset the credit risk that the underlying indices entail."


Source: Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/ ... 4yG1d0p.99
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:13 am

The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere

by Lu Wang

Source: Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... re-in-2015
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Re: Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 06, 2016 7:23 am

Three asset classes to watch in 2016

by Frank Holmes

Source: U.S. Global Investors

http://thecrux.com/three-asset-classes- ... h-in-2016/
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