Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Mar 19)

Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:55 am

What Warren Buffett and Professional Players Have in Common

by Richard Smith

“Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain".

Expected value is the probability-adjusted value of an investment.


Another way to think about expected value is to ask the following series of questions:
1. How much can I gain?
2. What is the likelihood of making that gain?
3. How much can I lose?
4. What is the likelihood of experiencing that loss?
Expected value is the result of adding those probabilities together


Source: Trade Stops

https://tradestops.com/blog
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:45 am

How This Angel Investor Turned $100K Into $100 Million

by Nicholas Vardy

1. You must be more than just smart. You also have to be lucky.
2. You have to play to win.
3. You have to be in the right place at the right time.

“A grand slam is worth 100 home runs”


Source: Liberty Through Wealth

https://libertythroughwealth.com/2018/0 ... ?src=email
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:45 am

How This Angel Investor Turned $100K Into $100 Million

by Nicholas Vardy

1. You must be more than just smart. You also have to be lucky.
2. You have to play to win.
3. You have to be in the right place at the right time.

“A grand slam is worth 100 home runs”


Source: Liberty Through Wealth

https://libertythroughwealth.com/2018/0 ... ?src=email
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:39 pm

Here's how the richest people in the world are investing their money

by Varada Bhat

Family offices are allocating 28% of their average portfolio to the equities market, followed by 22% in private equity, real estate (17%) and bonds (16%).

Allocations to hedge funds continues to fall to 5.7% amid concerns over weak performance and relatively high fees.

The world's super-rich are loving stocks — allocating 28% of their average portfolio to the asset class, followed by private equities and real estate.


Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-ric ... 00318.html
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:08 pm

There are three big things in the market's way, but Goldman has found stocks that will win anyway

Goldman's David Kostin says investors have grown cautious amid lingering trade tumult, a hot labor market and an uptick in borrowing costs.

The third quarter has been strong for most of the 381 S&P 500 components that have reported results, with 78 percent posting positive earnings surprises.

Goldman highlights 33 stocks it believes have a better chance of withstanding the gathering margin pressures.

by Thomas Franck

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/goldman ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:09 pm

Raymond James: Buy stocks in these four sectors no matter what happens in Tuesday's midterm elections

Tech stocks have sold off enough, energy looks "washed out," financials can do better, and health care is "in play," Raymond James' Jeff Saut says.

As a "forward-looking mechanism," the stock market won't care who controls Congress, he says.

by Tyler Clifford

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/raymond ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:07 pm

HOW TO INVEST IN LATE CYCLES?

by Don Low

“Bull markets do not die of old age but ended by recessions”.

1. Do not just merely buy stocks because they are cheaper.

2. Instead, the importance of focusing on quality is amplified during late cycle investing.

3. While fast growing companies often excites investors and draw the attention, “weaknesses” in the balance sheet could become the pitfall for these companies when recession hits.

4. Ideally, investors should look for a great business that generates positive cash flow, so much so that it could fund operations internally. That means, taking on debt is a choice instead of a necessity and no-strings attached cash is always good.

5. In times of uncertainties, volatility can be great and placing your money in a single bet can be an extremely silly thing to do.

6. In a falling market, do not fall victim to confirmation bias.


Source: Shares Investments

http://aspire.sharesinv.com/58717/si-re ... te-cycles/
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:28 am

The danger in 2019: markets’ dim view of the economy may become a self-fulfilling prophecy

Hannah Anderson says 2018 was a tough year for investors grappling with market sentiments that were persistently more pessimistic than actual conditions.

Policy decisions and political tensions will continue to matter in 2019

Cash was the best performing asset in 2018.

US dollar cash returned 1.8 per cent in 2018, the first time in at least 20 years that cash was the best-performing asset class.

Based on current information, the market may be a bit too pessimistic about the year ahead.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... conomy-may
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:17 pm

Eight Simple Steps to 'Foolproof' Your Portfolio

By Dr. Richard Smith

1. Find a source of good investment ideas
2. Look for investments that are in uptrends.
3. Invest in 10 to 15 different stocks and funds.
4. Risk 1%-2% of your capital on each position.
4. Determine your position sizes in a way that equally balances risk.
5. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
6. Protect against volatility by complementing risky positions with less-risky ones.
7. Exit when you hit your stop losses, and
8. Look for a new investment idea or wait for a re-entry trigger.


Source: TradeSmith
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Re: Investment Strategies 03 (Jul 13 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:07 am

by iam802

A $2 trillion strategist is bracing for 3 years of pain for stocks. Here's how she says investors can fight back and keep squeezing out returns.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to- ... 19-2/?IR=T

[*]Investors are headed into a period where the stock-market returns they have become accustomed to will be hard to find, according to Alicia Levine, the chief strategist at BNY Mellon Investment Management.
[*]In an interview with Business Insider, she laid out where investors should be building hedges, and areas of the market she sees as positioned to benefit in a period of lower returns.

Investing in stocks would be much easier if bull markets lasted forever.

Since that's not the reality, the twilight era of strong market uptrends always raises the need to position defensively for flat or down periods.

Investors are now faced with such a task, according to Alicia Levine, the chief strategist at BNY Mellon Investment Management, which oversees $1.7 trillion in assets.

As a former investor, Levine understands the importance of always having dry powder in the form of cash that's not vulnerable to the mood swings of the stock market. She's now advising other investors beef up their holdings, based on her assessment of what markets are likely to do during the next few years.

"If you look at the returns over the previous 10 years for most asset classes, we simply don't see those returns being maintained at that level," Levine told Business Insider in a recent interview.

Read more: MORGAN STANLEY: Stocks are barreling toward a long earnings recession, and an investing strategy to survive the drought is already crushing the market

The past decade of lofty returns for the stock market coincided with a period of zero interest rates and quantitative easing. Both stimulative policies from the Federal Reserve helped prop up the stock market, especially because the yields on less risky assets were so low and unappealing.

Policy is now turning in the direction of higher interest rates and tighter monetary conditions. The very prospect of this shift stopped the stocks in their tracks in 2018, and was a key reason why investors just endured the market's worst year since 2008.

In fact, some investors have never had a taste of this brave new world. They're a cohort Levine described as "ZIRP babies" — those who came into profession in the bygone era of the Fed's zero interest-rate policy.

"It's good to remind investors that the returns will be more moderate," Levine said.

"That doesn't mean you can't get positive returns, and we do see positive returns in equities and in emerging markets, for instance."

She flagged US financial stocks as a sector that's recently been beaten down even though its business fundamentals are strong. She also singled out industrials as a sector that should benefit for as long as the economy stays strong.

"We just think you have to start hedging, and you have to have an allocation to cash," Levine said.

She's advising that investors increase their cash holdings for the market environment that would prevail during the next 1-3 years. This dry powder serves as a hedge, and as an asset that can easily be put back in the market when needed.

"In a funny way, it's a better place to be for an investor because you stop lulling yourself into thinking everything's going to go up all the time, and you start introducing risk back into the system," she said.

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