Economics

Re: Economics

Postby winston » Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:54 am

Read this book, and you'll know more about economics than most PhD economists

by Walter E. Williams

Source: LewRockwell.com

http://thecrux.com/read-this-book-and-y ... st-ph-d-s/
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Re: Economics

Postby winston » Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:09 am

Why the Austrian Understanding of Money and Banks Is So Important

By Jörg Guido Hülsmann

Source: Market Oracle

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/02 ... important/
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Re: Economics

Postby winston » Fri May 22, 2015 7:34 am

Economic Reporting’s Dangerous Lies By Rodney Johnson

When it comes to providing clear information on the economy, the U.S. government is more late-night pitchman than serious news anchor. And to make matters worse, many of the numbers they peddle have been “adjusted” so that reports show better results.

Statistics in this category run the gamut from gross domestic product (GDP), to inflation, even to employment. We don’t have to look far into the numbers to find questionable changes.

When it comes to measuring the growth of the economy, no report is bigger than GDP. It sounds straightforward — add up the value of production in the U.S. over a calendar quarter, and adjust it for inflation to determine the real rate of growth.

But apparently that’s not good enough.

In the mid-1980s the Bureau of Economic Analysis started adjusting the cost of computer equipment to reflect increasing capacity in later versions of the same equipment.

Even though consumers might have been paying roughly the same amount for a new computer as they would have before, the bureau adjusted the price higher when calculating GDP.

The idea was to show how much more buyers were getting with increased capacity, even though they didn’t pay any extra.

Got that?

This type of adjustment is called "hedonic." It now adds over 20% to the value of GDP and affects items as far flung as clothing — or back when this was established, videocassette recorders.

This chunk of money that is added to GDP never changes hands. It’s simply estimated as extra value received by the purchaser. Anything to make GDP seem better.

The same sort of thing is done with inflation… but opposite. They want GDP higher, and inflation lower, so they fudge the numbers accordingly.

For example, a television with improved components in later models will have its price adjusted lower in inflation reports, whether the actual price stayed the same or even increased. What you paid $1,000 for, they may write down as $800.

Effectively, consumers are told: “TV’s cost less, you just can’t buy one for the lower price.” If it’s not available to me, then how can it count as something I would purchase? What if I don’t want the extra features? Too bad.

The inflation rate includes another curious adjustment — Owner’s Equivalent Rent.

This piece of mathematical fantasy represents what a homeowner could rent his home for if he chose to. The number is included as the cost of shelter in the calculation of inflation.

Instead of performing all these mental gymnastics to arrive at an estimate of housing costs, the government could simply survey home prices. That’s what they used to do.

But here’s the thing. Rents don’t climb as fast as home prices. So if you’re battling inflation, you magically adjust the cost of shelter to reflect rent instead of what it takes to actually buy a house.

It’s no coincidence the adjustment showed up right after a period of strong inflation in the U.S. that was very evident in home prices in the late 1970s. Guess it was too much for the BEA to take.

Then there’s one of my favorite economic adjustments: employment.

Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates the number of people with jobs and those who are unemployed. They conduct a phone survey of roughly 60,000 people to ask about their work. Again, this too sounded straightforward… Do you have a job? If not, do you want a job? But as with GDP and housing costs, this proved to be too simple.

If you don’t have a job, but want to work, there are a few more questions they have to ask. How long have you been out of work? If more than four weeks, then what have you done in the last four weeks to find a job? If your answer doesn’t include filling out an application somewhere, then magically you are no longer counted as unemployed. You still don’t have a job, of course, but for the purposes of the Labor Bureau, you no longer count toward the unemployment number. Brilliant!

GDP, inflation, unemployment… these are just some of the big economic releases that move markets and sway people’s opinions about the health of the economy.

And yet, the numbers reported by the government include all sorts of fudges and fixes to make the statistics more attractive than the raw numbers would be.

This is why we have to do our own homework. It is why we have to break down each report to the raw data, and then decide for ourselves where things stand.


Source: Economy & Markets
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Re: Economics

Postby winston » Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:00 am

The Indicator Wall Street Has Kept All to Itself… Until Now

By Tom Vician

Source: Profitable Trading

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/06 ... until-now/
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Videoclips (General) 05 (Oct 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Dec 01, 2015 8:14 am

A good watch on Economics

罗辑思维 149 德国为什么崛起
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcZyImgHjvQ
血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
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Re: Economics

Postby winston » Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:29 pm

Economists Explain Why Our Economy Crashes Every 18 Years

By Joshua Philipp

The U.S. economy has moved according to a set cycle for close to 200 years, and experts warn that if this pattern continues, we can expect another financial crisis starting this year, which will peak in 2019.


“We know that for centuries, the land value cycle has operated on an 18-year basis,” Harrison said in a phone interview. “The fact is, there is a very clear 18-year pattern, which is always intersected with a mid-term recession.”


Source: Epoch Times

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2000510 ... -18-years/
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Re: Economics

Postby winston » Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:27 am

9 ways to gauge the health of a country’s economy

by Kim Iskyan

Source: Stansberry Churchouse

https://stansberrychurchouse.com/global ... s-economy/
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Re: Economics

Postby winston » Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:27 am

9 ways to gauge the health of a country’s economy

by Kim Iskyan

Source: Stansberry Churchouse

https://stansberrychurchouse.com/global ... s-economy/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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