Presidential Cycle

Re: Presidential Cycle

Postby winston » Sat May 02, 2015 11:19 am

What the end of Obama's presidency could mean for stocks

by Tom McClellan

Source: Chart in Focus

http://thecrux.com/what-the-end-of-obam ... or-stocks/
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Re: Presidential Cycle

Postby winston » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:04 pm

We're about to enter what is typically the absolute best 12-month period to own stocks.

And we could see up to two years of fantastic profits, thanks to this election-cycle indicator.

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: Presidential Cycle

Postby winston » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:26 pm

4-year Presidential Cycle

The 4-year Presidential Cycle shows that year 3 (that's 2023), is the best year of all 4 years.

Since 1950, stocks have always gone up in the year after midterms, with an average 12-month forward return of 18.6%. So we are literally still in the first half of one of the most bullish periods for the market.

Additionally, over the last 60 years, if a bear market in the S&P goes down by -25% or more (the S&P was down by -25.4% last year between their bull market high close and their bear market low close), stocks go up on average of 38% a year later (those stats encompass 9 bear markets, with 8 of those seeing stocks up the next

And there's plenty of reason to believe we could see something like that again this year.

So it looks like there's still plenty more upside to go.

Source: Zack's Research
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Re: Presidential Cycle

Postby winston » Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:46 pm

Stock Market Rallies Amid Presidential Election Drama; 4 Factors May Keep The Bulls Running

by DAVID SAITO-CHUNG

The case for positive returns in 2024 rests largely on one key factor: optimism over future earnings.

Factor No. 2? The stock market forecast tends to benefit from a high likelihood the Federal Reserve, after signaling in November it's done raising interest rates, will start lowering them this year.

"Based on the presidential cycle, we (might) have a very strong trend from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025".

When you look at a first rate cut without a recession coming, that's where the real power (of institutional buying) comes in.

The stock market tends to do well when a sitting president runs for reelection.


Source: IBD

https://www.investors.com/news/stock-ma ... src=A00220
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