Buy & Monitor

Buy & Monitor

Postby winston » Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:34 pm

Investors Must Have a Long-Term View: Equity Analyst by: JeeYeon Park

How should investors prepare their portfolios as the market heads into a three-day break? Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial, and Kim Caughey, VP and senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group, shared their market outlooks.

“First of all, it’s a short-term trader’s market,” Kaufman told CNBC. “The big problem is visibility.”

Kaufman said issues in the U.S. in regard to health care, taxes, carbon tax and sovereign debt are hindering markets and making investors uncertain about what will happen over time.

In the meantime, Caughey said investors should focus on how companies will be trading in the long term.

“If you know that you have companies that have good, strong balance sheets with possibility of growth in the future, you should be rest assured that the world is still going to spin and these companies will be in business.”

“Having a very short-term view, you can get into a lot of trouble and a lot of negativity,” she added.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35367608
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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby winston » Wed Mar 17, 2010 8:10 am

The $100,000 Buy-and-Hold Challenge by Gary Halbert

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Introducing Roger Schreiner
2. Schreiner’s $100,000 Challenge to John Bogle
3. The Inevitable Rebuttals
4. Conclusions – Unlearning Buy-and-Hold

To say that Roger believes in the superiority of active money management strategies is an understatement. Last year, Roger issued a $100,000 challenge directly to Vanguard founder, John Bogle, in an effort to prove the merits of active management.

The Vanguard Group is one of the oldest and largest mutual fund families in the world. Mr. Bogle has long been an outspoken advocate of passive, buy-and-hold investing, and a similarly outspoken critic of active management strategies that move out of the market from time to time – the very strategies that I have recommended for years.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/f ... lenge.aspx
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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby winston » Sun May 23, 2010 8:00 pm

While I was watching the boats this afternoon, I was thinking of this subject.

Why didn't I hold on to my Starbucks from 20 years ago ? Or my JNJ ? Or my PG ? Or BRK ? Or recently, my DBS Land ( now Capitaland ), Noble, Wilmar, etc ?

"Buy & Hold" is now a stinky subject especially after the crash last year. But aren't those guys who held on to "good" stocks, sitting pretty well now?

Maybe the strategy of having a trailing stop loss is the way to go on this one. That way, one can hold on to a long term fundamentally good stock but at the same time lock in any huge profits, should a Black Swan appear.

The challenge then is to determine the % for that trailing stop loss. Should it be 25%, 20% or 15% ? It cant be 7% to 10% because that % is more for traders..
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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby Aspellian » Sun May 23, 2010 11:14 pm

winston wrote:While I was watching the boats this afternoon, I was thinking of this subject.

Why didn't I hold on to my Starbucks from 20 years ago ? Or my JNJ ? Or my PG ? Or BRK ? Or recently, my DBS Land ( now Capitaland ), Noble, Wilmar, etc ?

"Buy & Hold" is now a stinky subject especially after the crash last year. But aren't those guys who held on to "good" stocks, sitting pretty well now?

Maybe the strategy of having a trailing stop loss is the way to go on this one. That way, one can hold on to a long term fundamentally good stock but at the same time lock in any huge profits, should a Black Swan appear.

The challenge then is to determine the % for that trailing stop loss. Should it be 25%, 20% or 15% ? It cant be 7% to 10% because that % is more for traders..


Hi Winston,

I only have limited experience - so do take what i say below with a Big Pinch of salt.

I am wondering - most of the companies make their monster multi-bagger moves during uptrend/bull run etc and seldom do you see a stock that buckle against the worst of correction and became multi-baggers.

If one found a winning growth stock (it seems that growth and transformations is the no 1 criteria for all the counters you mentioned above - noble, starbucks, capitaland etc), then it seems reasonable to buy during end of a correction and sell when market topped.

BUT the key thing is not to forget these stocks whose growth stories are still intact. You buy again the next round. so buy - sell - buy - sell. Isnt that wonderful??

I am assuming these are stocks that are fairly liquid, growth stories intact, share prices have a strong correlations with the overall market and economy and one can TIME the market relatively well.

Of cos there will always be new ideas and companies that come into your picture or new allocation requirements. So probably can fix a X% or amount to do this type of investment.

From your hindsight experience, what do you think of above? Do you think its workable? ( I really wish to hear your highly valuable opinion ).

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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby winston » Mon May 24, 2010 6:32 am

Hi A,

From my own mistakes, it's very hard to hold on to a great winner. As Peter Lynch once said, there's always something to worried about. When everyone is shouting "fire", you tend to sell too, thinking that you are smart enough to buy it back.

Many times, after selling, you dont really buy it back. Thereafter, it becomes a one bagger, then a two bagger and then, you give up on it, waiting for the next crash that never comes, until a decade later.

With the internet now, info is also instantaneous and you are always worrying about the end of world again and again and again and again and again.

I'm not advocating "Buy & Hold" and we saw what happened last year. However, I also saw what happened over the past few decades. And I would be sitting pretty well if only I have had held on to some of my better growth stocks ..

So that was why I was thinking of this subject. "Buy & Hold" is now dead so I think that it's time to think about the subject again and make some refinement on this strategy.

My own thinking is that if you follow the "investment strategies of the month", your performance would be mediocre rather than outstanding.

Right now, I'm Swing Trading fundamentally sound growth stocks. I may refine it to Position Trading when market conditions stabilizes. Not sure that I will ever have the stomach to be a "Buy & Hold" player like Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch and probably there's no need to if I can refine my strategy.

My 2 cents on a nice Monday morning.

Take care,
Winston
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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby Aspellian » Mon May 24, 2010 11:50 pm

Hi Winston, thanks for the comments.

Just somethoughts on a tiring Monday night....

Buy and Hold - we assuming that stock that we buy and truly hold is the thousand bagger after decades. But there is also great opportunity costs if one buy-and-hold but either it never grew big and the CAGR over the decade may not be as impressive, or the company may have risen to the sky but it fell flat - or worse still - became bankrupt.

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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby kennynah » Mon May 24, 2010 11:55 pm

2 words....for this "buy and hold" nonsense...

chartered semiconductor....
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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby Aspellian » Tue May 25, 2010 12:15 am

kennynah wrote:2 words....for this "buy and hold" nonsense...

chartered semiconductor....


CSM is a classic story. Till Delisted Do Us Part!!!! :lol:

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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby winston » Tue May 25, 2010 6:35 am

Yes, Buy & Hold are for stocks that you will sock away for decades and let them grow to become World Dominators.

It's really your judgement on whether the stock you bought will become a world dominator or not.

For every example that you have that "Buy & Hold" will not work, I have an example for you that it can work eg. Walmart.

So I will not really blame "Buy & Hold". I will blame my judgement for buying a lousy stock in the first place. And if one has bought a fundamentally lousy stock, why continue to hold it ?
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Re: Buy & Hold

Postby winston » Tue May 25, 2010 7:11 am

TOL:-

"Buy & Hold" can also be applied to other investments eg. Real Estate etc.

"Buy & Hold" are not suitable for traders, who likes to turn over their holdings a few times a day :P
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