Contrarian Investing

Re: Contrarian Investing

Postby winston » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:02 am

Is it time to buy the two most-hated assets?

By Simon Maierhofer

Silver and Treasuries are in the doldrums, making them attractive according to contrarian investing

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-it ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Contrarian Investing

Postby winston » Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:35 pm

Seek Uncertainty

by Vishal Khandelwal

Mohnish Pabrai wrote in his brilliant book The Dhandho Investor -

Wall Street sometimes gets confused between risk and uncertainty, and you can profit handsomely from that confusion.

The Street just hates uncertainty, and it demonstrates that hate by collapsing the quoted stock price of the underlying business.

Here are a few scenarios that are likely to lead to a depressed stock price:
High risk, low uncertainty
High risk, high uncertainty
Low risk, high uncertainty

The fourth logical combination, low risk and low uncertainty, is loved by Wall Street, and stock prices of these securities sport some of the highest trading multiples. Avoid investing in these businesses.

Of the three, the only one of interest to us connoisseurs of the fine art of Dhandho is the low-risk, high-uncertainty combination, which gives us our most sought after coin-toss odds. Heads, I win; tails, I don't lose much!

While value investors are typically averse to taking high risks, that's more a reflection of the price they're willing to pay for any given investment than the types of situations they most often pursue, which are often fraught with uncertainty.

As businesses constantly evolve and change in response to challenges and opportunities, the lack of clarity around those changes. And the risks inherent in the potential outcomes can cause share prices to diverge widely from underlying business values.

The ability to recognize and capitalize upon that dynamic, and understand whether it's temporary or permanent, is a key element of what sets the best investors apart.

Source: Seeking Alpha
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Re: Contrarian Investing

Postby winston » Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:30 pm

After a dazzling 2021 performance, here’s what contrarian investors are predicting for 2022, says Citi

By Barbara Kollmeyer

“Contrarians are now positioned for global economic slowdown, which would help more defensive equities outperform. They could also profit from significant Fed tightening, which might derate expensive growth stocks. Chinese fiscal or monetary stimulus could also help contrarians in 2022”.

Apart from another bearish bet on developed markets, contrarians would be shorting oil, the dollar and buying gold.

“Semiconductor shorts are a favorite sell, but our contrarian would also be calling against this year’s rebound in Ford F and ConocoPhillips COP.

A rapid fall in COVID concerns might help the negative call on Moderna MRNA.

Another big trade is to short European luxury goods, where returns have been spectacular in 2021,” they said.

“A contrarian’s bullish sector calls on global utilities and consumer staples might also benefit from economic slowdown, as would bearish calls on energy and financials.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after ... eid=yhoof2
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Re: Contrarian Investing

Postby winston » Thu Jun 08, 2023 11:48 am

Americans Now Think That THIS is the Best Long-Term Investment

by Brett Eversole

Folks are more worried about real estate than they have been in years. But that’s exciting news for contrarian investors.

We see a similar situation in stocks. Only 18% of respondents chose stocks as the best long-term investment. It’s the lowest reading since 2011. And it’s also down from 26% in 2021.

And in the case of stocks and housing, it means the worst could be behind us.


Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/06/07/ ... nvestment/
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Re: Contrarian Investing

Postby winston » Thu Dec 28, 2023 10:57 pm

How to Make Successful Contrarian Trades

by Brett Eversole

Everyone in the world is watching what they’ll do next. That alone makes it harder for the big-league investors to make (and hold onto) truly contrarian positions.


Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/12/28/ ... an-trades/
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Re: Contrarian Investing

Postby winston » Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:45 am

Beat the Market: Invest Like a Contrarian

by BRIAN J. REGAN

Markets can sometimes be wrong and it is our role as investors, to take advantage of those times by leaning into positions rather than leaning out.

I believe the bulk of your investments should be focused on consistent businesses and cash flows with growth because it is more reasonable to ascribe a rational value and take advantage of deviations in price (i.e. the volatility).


Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/retirement-da ... g=62795946
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