Commodities - General News 04 (May 18 - Dec 25)

[behappyalways]

This is probably one of the most important charts I’ve seen in the last weeks.

Commodities are the most underweight relative to bonds since March 2009.
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/17 ... 3186475295

[winston]

Positive outlook on gold and crude oil but not copper

The anticipated retreat in the US dollar and interest rates in 2024 will be key positive drivers for gold, while concerns on overall adherence to the production cuts will likely lead to higher crude oil prices (CPO).

Maintained a negative outlook for London Metal Exchange copper following weak construction demand from China and the risk of increasing surplus in refined balance.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... not-copper

[behappyalways]

After speculating on real estate prices, speculating on pearls?
After speculating on real estate, speculating on unfinished buildings, the price of "speculated pearls" in China has increased 10 times.
Zhejiang's largest jewelry city has an influx of people queuing up to buy

炒完房價炒珍珠? 炒房炒到爛尾樓 中國改"炒珍珠"價翻10倍 浙江規模最大珠寶城 湧入人潮排隊代購│主播 曾鈴媛│【國際大現場】20240115│三立新聞台

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg-FM4mzjhM

[behappyalways]

Real estate speculation and gold rush are not popular.
China's "pearl speculation" has become popular and the price has increased 10 times.
It has captured 73% of the world's freshwater pearl supply.
The No. 1 Pearl Village has been inundated with goods!

炒房.搶金不流行 中國"炒珍珠"暴紅價翻10倍 攬全球73%淡水珠貨源 珍珠第一村爆掃貨潮!｜非凡財經新聞｜20240115

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8ggOtzKGWXg

[winston]

Weak demand dragging on base metals in 2024

By ANDY HOME

BASE metals are in for a subdued 2024 with weak demand damping any bullish supply pressures.

Only copper and aluminium are expected to see average higher prices this year and expected gains relative to 2023 are highly modest at 2.8% and 2.1% respectively.

Zinc, lead and tin are all expected to decline in price, albeit to an equally modest degree.

Nickel is the stand-out. It probably boasts the strongest demand profile thanks to its use in electric vehicle batteries, but is being swamped by a wave of new production from Indonesia.

High interest rates, manufacturing recession in many Western economies and a stuttering Chinese growth engine are outweighing any bullish supply narrative.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ls-in-2024

[winston]

Commodity demand echoes in BHP results

By CLYDE RUSSELL

Major supplier of iron ore, coal and copper.

Steady first-half result of US$6.6bil profits, the same as the year-earlier period.

US$5.7bil in impairments and charges booked, relating to writing down the value of nickel business in Western Australia state and charges against the Samarco iron ore operations in Brazil to cover for the dam collapse in 2015.

China is transitioning from being the main driver of growth in demand for commodities, to being a steady source of demand.

China had record iron ore consumption in 2023 and steel output was above one billion tonnes for a fifth straight year, numbers that allowed BHP to record a 6% rise in revenue growth.

Iron ore is BHP’s biggest product, accounting for 68% of the group’s underlying profits.

Long-held view that China’s steel production would sit at a plateau in the one to 1.1 billion tonnes per annum range in the first half of the 2020s.

India and South-East Asia are also expected to increase steel output in coming years, which may offset any decline in China.

Copper demand growth in China to continue, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than the 6% year-on-year rate seen in calendar year 2023.

Overall, BHP’s outlook for its major commodities remains tied to the fortunes of China, with a side-helping of India.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/ins ... hp-results

[behappyalways]

The Most-Used Energy Sources In Europe
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/most-u ... ces-europe

[behappyalways]

We have probably entered the part of the cycle where commodities start to thrive
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status ... 3740897771

[behappyalways]

Who's Leading The Race To Mine The Deep Sea?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... e-deep-sea

[behappyalways]

Concern Over Food & Water Supply Grows Among Europeans
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -europeans