Demographics, Statistics etc.

Demographics, Statistics etc.

Postby winston » Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:10 pm

It's Fun to Know: The New Mini Baby Boom

More babies were born in the United States in 2007 than in any other year in the country's history: 4,317,119. The previous record was set in 1957 at the height of the post-World War II baby boom.

Researchers don't expect this mini baby boom to last, noting that the birth rate has already started to decline as a result of the economic recession that started at the end of 2007. (The lowest recorded birth rates in the U.S. occurred during the Great Depression.)

(Source: Associated Press)
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Re: Demography

Postby LenaHuat » Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:59 pm

In some 30 years' time, the 'white' population will be no longer be the majority ethnic group in the US. The Latinos, who are mostly Catholics or Evangelical Protestants, will be. And they will procreate to ensure this will be so.
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Re: Demography

Postby winston » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:58 pm

Selective abortion causes 32mln excess China males

AFP - Saturday, April 11PARIS (AFP) - - Selective abortion in favour of males has left China with 32 million more boys than girls, creating an imbalance that will endure for decades, an investigation released on Friday warned.

The probe provides ammunition for those experts who predict China's obsession with a male heir will sow a bitter fruit as men facing a life of bachelorhood fight for a bride.

"Although some imaginative and extreme solutions have been suggested, nothing can be done now to prevent this imminent generation of excess men," says the paper, published online by the British Medical Journal (BMJ).

In most countries, males slightly outnumber females -- between 103 and 107 male births for every 100 female births.

But in China and other Asian countries, the sex ratio has widened sharply as the traditional preference for boys is reinforced by the availability of cheap ultrasound diagnostics and abortion.

This has enabled Chinese couples to use pregnancy termination to prevent a female birth, a practice that is officially condemned as well as illegal.

In China, an additional factor has been the "one-child" policy.

In general, parents who have a second child are liable to pay a fine and contribute disproportionately towards the child's education.

But in some provinces, a second child is permitted if the first is a girl or if parents are experiencing "hardship." And in a few others, couples are allowed a second child and sometimes a third, regardless of sex.

In the paper, Zhejiang university professors Wei Xing Zhu and Li Lu and Therese Hesketh of University College London found that in 2005 alone, China had more than 1.1 million excess male births.

Among Chinese aged below 20, the greatest gender imbalances were among one-to-four-year-olds, where there were 124 male to 100 female births, with 126 to 100 in rural areas, they found.

The gap was especially big in provinces where the one-child policy was strictly enforced and also in rural areas.

Jiangxi and Henan provinces had ratios of over 140 male births compared to female births in the 1-4 age group.

Among second births, the sex ratio was even higher, at 143 males to 100 female. It peaked at a massive 192 boys to 100 girls in Jiangsu province.

Only two provinces -- Tibet and Xinjiang, the most permissive in terms of the one-child policy -- had normal sex ratios.

"Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males," the paper said. "(...) Enforcing the existing ban on sex selective abortion could lead to normalisation of ratios."

Other policy options are to loosen enforcement of the one-child policy so that couples can have a second child if the first child is a girl, it said.

The paper does not deal with the social consequences of the extraordinary imbalance, but suggests there are rays of light.

Since since 2000, the government has launched policies aimed at countering the imbalance, with a "care for girls" awareness campaign and reforms of inheritance laws, it says.

Partially as a result, the sex ratio of birth did not change between 2000 and 2005, and in many urban areas, the ratio for the first and usually only birth is now within normal limits.

The figures come from a mini-census in China in 2005, covering one percent of the population, that sought to rectify flaws in a 2000 census. A total of 4.764 million people under the age of 20 were included in the study.

In a commentary, Tao Liu and Xing-yi Zhang of Jilin University said preferences for sons in China were starting to erode with urbanisation and industrialisation.

Social systems, pensions and higher standards of living eased the son's traditional role of caring for his parents.

China could also follow the lead of South Korea, they said.

In 1992, South Korea had "an astounding" 229-to-100 gender imbalance in fourth births among couples, which prompted it to launch a public-awareness campaign combined with strictly enforced laws on gender selection.

By 2004, there were 110 male births to 100 females, compared with 116-100 in 1998.
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Re: Demography

Postby BlackCat » Sat Apr 11, 2009 12:30 am

Will China get rich before it gets old? The real demographic problem in China.

http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/grayingkingdom.pdf
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Re: Demography

Postby LenaHuat » Sat Apr 11, 2009 9:14 pm

Look at the Aged Support Ratio in Y2040 :
US 2.3
China 2.0
Singapore 1.5
HongKong 1.4
Japan 1.1 :evil: :evil:
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Re: Demography

Postby winston » Tue Apr 21, 2009 5:55 pm

Asia-Pacific's population growth drop

AFP - BANGKOK (AFP) - - Population growth in the Asia-Pacific region has slowed to the lowest rate in the developing world, a United Nations report showed Tuesday.

The growth rate since 2000 across the region is now 1.1 percent, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said, amid falling death rates but even faster tumbling birth rates.

"We are familiar with population ageing in countries like Japan but the same phenomenon is now evident in many countries," said UN Under-Secretary General Noeleen Heyzer.

"Once the total fertility rate falls below the replacement rate of 2.1, we can expect the regions population to start shrinking."

Across the Asia-Pacific region, the number of children born per woman fell to 2.4 for the period 2000-2005, down from 2.9 per woman for the previous five years, according to the UN data.

The report showed that fertility rates are now below the replacement level in 16 countries in the region including China, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand.

The ESCAP's Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2008 said migration was exacerbating falling birth rates with populations of poorer nations heading for the richer regional economies of Singapore, Hong Kong and China.

Natural disasters had also worsened the situation for the Asia-Pacific area, the report said.

It said from January to September 2008, 28 natural disasters, chiefly earthquakes, floods and typhoons, affected more than 101 million people, killed more than 223,000, and caused more than 103-billion-dollars worth of economic damage.
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Re: Demography

Postby LenaHuat » Wed Apr 22, 2009 7:45 am

The report showed that fertility rates are now below the replacement level in 16 countries in the region including China, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand.


The replacement levels in cities are very low compared to the countryside. For example, Bangkok's is around 1.6 v 2.1 for the country's average. For Beijing, I think it would even be lower than 1.6.
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Re: Demography

Postby winston » Wed Apr 22, 2009 2:37 pm

LenaHuat wrote:
The report showed that fertility rates are now below the replacement level in 16 countries in the region including China, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand.


The replacement levels in cities are very low compared to the countryside. For example, Bangkok's is around 1.6 v 2.1 for the country's average. For Beijing, I think it would even be lower than 1.6.


I think the replacement levels are being cancelled out by migration to the urban areas..
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Re: Demography

Postby winston » Wed Apr 22, 2009 2:37 pm

Aging population poses growing threat to stability

China faces a threat to its social stability and economic growth from a population which is aging before the country becomes wealthy and must tackle the problem properly, according to a US study.

The Center for Strategic and International studies warned that by 2050 China will have more than 438 million people older than 60, with over 100 million of them 80 and above.

The country will have just 1.6 working-age adults to support every person aged 60 and above, compared with 7.7 in 1975.

''The 'premature aging' of China's population ... poses broader challenges that reach far beyond retirement policy,'' the authors of the report wrote.

''It threatens to impose a rising burden on the young, slow economic and living standard growth and become a socially destabilizing force in a country where the stresses of rapid modernization are already straining the civic fabric.''

China is ill-prepared to cope with its graying population, with an underfunded state pensions system and shrinking family sizes removing a traditional layer of support for elders, as well as reducing the number of workers who can support them.

The country is building a social safety net, to replace the cradle-to-grave security once offered by state-owned enterprises.

The central government spent 276.16 billion yuan (HK$315.35 billion) on social welfare and employment last year, 19.9 percent more than it did in 2007, according to state media. Beijing has also announced a 10 percent rise in pensions for retired workers.

REUTERS
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Re: Demography

Postby winston » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:43 pm

In the year 2040 - 1.3 billion senior citizens By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The world's population of older people is growing at the fastest rate ever seen and the old will soon outnumber the young for the first time, U.S. researchers reported on Monday.

An aging population will push up pension and healthcare costs, forcing major increases in public spending that could slow economic growth in rich and poor countries.

The number of people 65 and older hit about 506 million as of midyear 2008, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This will double to 1.3 billion by 2040, accounting for 14 percent of the total global population.

"People aged 65 and over will soon outnumber children under age 5 for the first time in history," said the report put together by Kevin Kinsella and Wan He of the U.S. Census Bureau.

"Aging is affecting every country in every part of the world," said Richard Suzman of the National Institute of Aging, which commissioned the report. "While there are important differences between developed and developing countries, global aging is changing the social and economic nature of the planet and presenting difficult challenges."

The report found that people aged 80 and older are the fastest growing portion of the total population in many countries. Globally, this "oldest old" population is projected to increase by 233 percent between 2008 and 2040.

This could strain their children and grandchildren.

"Shrinking ratios of workers to pensioners and people spending a larger portion of their lives in retirement increasingly tax existing health and pension systems," the report said.

"In a few years' time, just after 2010, the numbers and proportions of older people (especially the oldest old) will begin to rise rapidly in most developed and many developing countries," it added.

"The increase is primarily the result of high fertility levels after World War II and secondarily, but increasingly, the result of reduced death rates at older ages."

Chronic diseases such as heart disease and cancer remain the top killers, especially of the elderly. This in turn means huge expense for healthcare systems.

And this will not only happen in the industrialized world.

"By 2040, today's developing countries are likely to be home to more than 1 billion people aged 65 and over, 76 percent of the projected world total," the report reads.

Each month, 870,000 people turn 65. In 10 years, 1.9 million people will celebrate their 65th birthdays each month.

If countries and businesses plan right, an aging population could create opportunities for economic growth, the report said.

But it also cited a 2006 European Commission report that found the costs of pensions, healthcare and long-term care will force major increases in public spending and force down gross domestic product growth rates.

"And in the absence of policy changes, the potential EU economic growth rate would be cut in half by 2030," the report cautioned.

http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNe ... dChannel=0
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