InvestIdeas

I recall so many consumer brands were withdrawn from the local market - my undergarment labels, some chocolates, many eateries, a superstore like Lane Crawford at Wheelock Towers.

What else can other forumers remember?? PL share.

10 years is a very long time. Most people would have forgotten those depressing times ...

1) Did you remember how interest rate on foreign currency spiked up to about 30% during the Asian Financial Crisis? That was the time to put some money into some foreign currency fixed deposits and to lock them in for as long as possible. You make two ways, Firstly, on the high interest rates and thereafter, on the appreciation of that foreign currency..

2) Did you remember the Clob saga, where peopled doubled their money because they could not sell their shares ? That was when "Time in the Market" is better than "Timing the Market"...

3) Did you remember how low the Premier Club memberships were ?

4) That was also the time to upgrade on your property. If you are selling and buying real estate at the same time, you would still be ahead. You will lose on the smaller property that you are selling but you would be buying the bigger property at a bigger discount so net net, you will come out ahead... Hmm.... need to see whether these work for stocks..

5) Did you remember how low COE's were ?

6) I had a friend who wanted to put in some money into Fixed Deposit at DBS. The interest rate were very low. She was annoyed. So she bought the shares of DBS with her money instead. Smart move

Anybody who has run a business would know that it takes some time to turn things around.

For those who thinks that it will be a "V" or "U" shape recovery in business conditions, think again..

When looking at the analyst reports, look at their earning projections. The analysts are projecting low growth in the first year, 20% growth in the second year and 30% growth in the third year. That's not realistic. If you have no growth now, it is very likely that you will have no growth next year or even negative growth next year. Some of these analysts have not really run a business before. Worse still, some are straight from University with just 5 years of work experience.

Although it will not be a "U" or "V" shape recovery for business conditions, it does not mean that stock prices cannot be "U" or "V". There's a lot of cash on the sidelines now. When things dropped a lot, there would be a technical rebound. Bear market rallies are probably one of the most powerful and sharpest... dangerous too, if you catch it late...

was in a Angels VC talk on thurs ...

one of the ppt. slide flashed:

V: recovery 2010: x possibility

U: recovery 2012: y possibility

L: recovery 2015: z possibility

as time goes by, we will know the possibility ... ??

recovery in 2010 should be "U" not "V".

"V" should be 2009

ya ...

you must be one of the VCs, sitting in piles of cash ...

Recovery will be _|_

Or _|_ (~__~) _|_ for good measure.

from the Economist:
Trade slows and gloom mounts. But Asia’s economic downturn will be milder than the one it endured a decade ago

recovery might be


M
V \
V \ V and many other combinations .... it's up to our imagination...
V \ V
N