InvestIdeas

VIX option prices are suggesting the VIX is headed higher next month. And, a higher VIX usually goes along with a falling stock market.

When VIX calls are far more expensive than the equivalent put options, it shows VIX option traders expect the index to move sharply higher over the next several weeks.

And a rising VIX (rising volatility) usually accompanies a falling stock market.

So, if you’re making short-term bullish bets, be careful.

1. Evidence of speculation and complacency
2. Defensive strength
3. Negative momentum and breadth divergence
4. Seasonality concerns
5. DeMark exhaustion
6. Trend deterioration in key market sectors
7. Overbought market conditions on weekly, monthly basis
8. Intra-market divergence

Both the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) are approaching all-time highs (which mark important resistance).

The “dumb money” confidence indicator is off-the-charts high! You can see that it is well above the red line (caution).

Will extreme dumb money confidence mark a bubbly trading top, or will the good times continue?

The Buffett Indicator has surged to 171% as investors bet on AI, rate cuts, and a soft landing.

Buffett suggested in a Fortune article in 2001 that stocks would be fairly valued at a 100% reading, and buying them at the 70% or 80% level would probably work out nicely. However, he warned it would be "playing with fire" to purchase them around the 200% mark.

Buffett's preferred yardstick takes the total market capitalization of all actively traded US stocks, and divides that figure by the latest official estimate for quarterly gross domestic product (GDP).

behappyalways wrote:Canary in the mine....be careful

Xlu surging...Russell 2000 falling...

behappyalways wrote:Xlu....The smart money are seeking safety...


https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

behappyalways wrote:Canary in the mine....be careful

Xlu surging...Russell 2000 falling...