Market Timing 07 (Nov 22 - Dec 24)

[behappyalways]

"US stocks will rise first before FOMC!"

24.01.25【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「FOMC前 美股先漲再說！」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uLmDOP4KAHg

[winston]

Why the Market Could See Quick and Significant Downside

Storm clouds continue to gather.

by Guy Ortmann

Extended 12-month forward valuation of the S&P 500 combined with historically high levels of bullish investor sentiment.

Most of the stochastic levels are overbought but have yet to generate bearish crossover signals.

At $233.07 per share, its forward P/E multiple is 21.0x and still well above the "rule of 20" ballpark fair value at 15.8x. With a 500-basis point premium, it remains a real cause for concern.

The S&P's earnings yield is 4.77%.

While the charts have yet to register important sell signals, valuation and sentiment suggest storm clouds are gathering that may result in some downside of significance in an abbreviated timeframe.

We continue to honor sell signals on individual names while generally refraining from chasing price.

Source: The Street

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets ... g=62795946

[winston]

Stocks are close to flashing an ultra-rare indicator that's led to a strong year of returns 100% of the time

by Jennifer Sor

Stocks have only had a positive January in an election year 11% of the time, the firm said.

Once that milestone is hit, the market has risen 100% of the time with an average gain of 15.6%.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-c ... 41340.html

[winston]

We Want to Own Stocks Today

by Sean Michael Cummings

If you want to know where the market is headed, take a look at utility companies.

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)

The ratio of XLU to the S&P 500 is at a decade-plus low.

Momentum is still on the side of the stock market. This is a clear message we don’t want to argue with.

Once this ratio turns, that’s when we’ll get cautious. Until then, don’t fight the trend… We want to own stocks today.

Source: DailyWealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2024/01/31/w ... cks-today/

[winston]

The 2024 Bull Market is Running Strong

by Sean Michael Cummings

Elections are reliably bullish. Stocks were positive in 20 of the past 24 election years… resulting in a strong win rate of 83%.

Don’t let this year’s political scene get you too shaken up. History shows stocks are likely to surge after the dust settles – regardless of the outcome.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/02/06/ ... ng-strong/

[winston]

Consider Cashing Out of Stocks and Taking The Rest of the Year Off

by Jeff Clark

With the S&P 500 already up 4% for the new year, the index is trading 22 times its 2024 earnings estimates.

That’s at the high end of its historical valuation range.

And that puts the earnings yield (earnings divided by price) at 4.94%.

By comparison, a three-month Treasury bill yields 5.25%.

So, with the fundamental valuation stretched to the high of its historic range and the technical condition looking poised to make a turn, investors might follow the same advice I offered in early 2022… Consider taking the rest of the year off.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/02/09/ ... -year-off/

[winston]

Is this market a bubble or a durable new bull?

By JONATHAN LEVIN

At the moment, bottom-up sell-side forecasters think the S&P 500 is heading for 5,420 over the next 12 months, an 8.4% implied upside from last Thursday’s close.

Combine that with the sell side’s projected dividend yield, and it implies a 10% return over the next 12 months – 5.9 percentage points more than the yield on a 10-year Treasury note.

In a world without perfect foresight, it’s always wise to manage risk, but avoiding it altogether is a risk unto itself.

The point is simply that, while there’s obviously peril in knowingly riding a bubble, there’s also a steep price to be paid for skipping out on a growth story that ultimately turns out to be the real deal.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... e-new-bull

[winston]

3 things need to happen for the stock market rally to continue in 2024, according to UBS

by Matthew Fox

UBS is encouraged by better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings results and said the S&P 500 could rise to 5,300.

These are the 3 things that need to happen for the stock market rally to continue in 2024, according to UBS:-
1. 'More good news on the economy would be needed'
2. 'We are looking for signs that Fed cuts are delayed, but not by too much'
3. 3. 'We are watching to see if AI monetization trends pick up'

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-things ... 34722.html

[winston]

Emotion, not fundamentals, is driving stock gains, and a recession could send stocks down more than 30%, market vet says

by Jennifer Sor

Plowing cash into this type of stock market could be a "mistake," B. Riley Wealth's Paul Dietrich said.

While inflation has cooled from its highs, not all is well in the "wonderland" economy.

A mild recession could send S&P 500 tumbling by more than a third, Dietrich said in a note.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emotion- ... 29128.html

[winston]

Emotion, not fundamentals, is driving stock gains, and a recession could send stocks down more than 30%, market vet says

by Jennifer Sor

Plowing cash into this type of stock market could be a "mistake," B. Riley Wealth's Paul Dietrich said.

While inflation has cooled from its highs, not all is well in the "wonderland" economy.

A mild recession could send S&P 500 tumbling by more than a third, Dietrich said in a note.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emotion- ... 29128.html