Market Timing 07 (Nov 22 - Dec 24)

[winston]

Dr. David Eifrig: “I see risk — but I also see opportunity…”

by Dr. David Eifrig

Markets don’t wait for the “all clear” to start rising again.

If you wait until inflation, war, interest-rate hikes, and the threat of recession have all subsided, stocks will have started soaring without you. The market will lead the news on each of those threats passing.

When the market bottomed in 2009, people were still terrified of the financial crisis and fearing a “double-dip recession.”

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2022/11/05/ ... portunity/

[winston]

Stocks tend to rally following mid-term elections

In the five days leading up to and three days following mid-term elections, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has marched an average of 2.8% higher since 1934.

The positive momentum typically carries forward into the following year, with pre-Presidential election years gaining 10.4% on average since 1833, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In Presidential Election years, the average return is 6%.

It’s not only the Dow Jones that performs well. In Real Money’s Morning Recon, Stephen Guilfoyle writes, “The S&P 500 has put together a positive return for the 12 months following a midterm election for 19 consecutive midterm elections. That's a pretty nice batting average.”'

Source: The Street

[winston]

Soaring US tech stocks leave some investors doubtful rebound will last

Hopes that inflation is subsiding are fueling a surge in battered technology and megacap stocks, though some investors believe still-high valuations and doubts over the companies' earnings outlooks may make a sustained reversal elusive.

Tech and tech related companies that represent less than one-fifth of the S&P 500 have so far accounted for over half of the negative profit revisions for the fourth quarter.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/202 ... -will-last

[winston]

by behappyalways:-

S&P 500 Index chart, very short term.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarterBWorth ... 7887091712

[behappyalways]

A good watch

FACE Interview Nov 22nd 2022. Katie is still med-term bearish SPX, but allows for S/T upside
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_1DSYN3N0eM

[winston]

Stocks typically rally in December, investors have some caution this year

by David Randall

December is typically a good month as fund managers buy stocks that have outperformed over the year for so-called "window dressing" of their portfolios while there are year-end inflows and lower liquidity during holiday-shortened weeks.

U.S. stocks have risen during the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January 75% of the time since 1945, according to CFRA, in a so-called Santa Claus Rally.

Short sellers have covered nearly $30 billion in short positions since the start of the month, with the largest covering coming consumer discretionary, health care, and financial stocks.

Source: Reuters

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-t ... 23264.html

[winston]

Stock market could plunge another 24% next year, Bank of America warns

by Megan Henney

Face further volatility next year as a result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening as it reduces its roughly $8.6 trillion balance sheet, at a pace of $95 billion a month.

The balance sheet nearly doubled in size during the pandemic as the Fed bought up mortgage-backed securities and other Treasurys in order to keep borrowing cheap.

Source: Fox News

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 14711.html

[behappyalways]

‘Wild ride’: Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson predicts double-digit percentage drop will hit stocks in early 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/double- ... anley.html

[winston]

A new bull market?

With the S&P 500 reclaiming its 200-day moving average on significant volume, after spending six months languishing below it, the price action is strongly suggesting a new bull market has arrived.

We think it’s time to listen to that price action. It’s time to buy ahead of a potentially massive stock boom in 2023.

Source: Investor Place

[behappyalways]

I believe the conditions now favor an imminent stock market crash.

https://mobile.twitter.com/leadlagrepor ... 6056873986