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by winston » Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:14 pm
So yes, investors have been through a lot recently. But new all-time highs aren’t a sign that it’s time to lock in gains.
Stocks don’t have a history of crashing after hitting new all-time highs. Instead, prices tend to keep moving higher.
That means more new highs are likely in the months ahead. So we want to stay bullish – and stay invested – until the trend reverses.
by winston » Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:07 pm
by winston » Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:33 pm
Investors can come up with any number of reasons to sell today… from geopolitical tensions to the upcoming election, to rising valuations. Even new all-time highs can make folks panic.
But none of that really matters, for one simple reason…
Stocks are going up. That means they’ll likely keep going up. Or, as Old Turkey would say… “It’s a bull market, you know!”
Your job is to stop fighting it and invest accordingly.
by winston » Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:05 am
The Nasdaq finally reached a new record high on Feb. 29, 2024. Crossing that threshold made the new bull market official, a development that has historically portended substantial gains for investors.
Specifically, the Nasdaq has only been through eight other bull markets since 1990, and the index has generally moved much higher during those periods.
History says the Nasdaq Composite could soar 157% by April 2026
Two things must happen for a bull market to occur:
1. The index in question must rise 20% from a bear market low.
2. The index must also reach a new record high.
by winston » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:58 pm
Warned clients that they could be “stuck on the wrong side” of the momentum trade when it eventually falters and he encouraged them to consider diversifying their holdings and thinking about risk management.
He also reiterated his warning that excessive crowding in the market’s best-performing stocks raises the risk of an imminent correction.
It just might come one day out of the blue. This has happened in the past, we’ve had flash crashes.
by winston » Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:00 pm
by winston » Fri Apr 05, 2024 8:09 pm
The market has gotten easy for investors this year. But we shouldn’t fear a reversal anytime soon, according to history.
We’re in the middle of an incredible streak. And it points to even bigger gains in the months ahead. Make sure you’re positioned to take advantage of it.
by winston » Tue Apr 09, 2024 5:49 pm
When the index closes below its 20-day EMA it will likely mark the start of an intermediate-term correction phase that lasts for several weeks, at least, and knocks 10% or more off of the index.
In other words, if the S&P closes below 5,180 then it’s probably headed towards 4,700 or so over the next several weeks.
If the S&P closes below its 20-day EMA, we’re not going to want to wait until May to hit the “sell” button. We’ll be better off selling in April.
by winston » Sat Apr 13, 2024 6:15 am
Today, just 22% of AAII survey respondents are bearish.
So while investors may be bullish today, it’s not a headwind for the current rally’s progress. History says that the opposite is probably true. The 22% bearish reading is likely to fuel higher prices from here.
It’s still not too late to go long. The data tells us investor optimism is a healthy development for this bull run. And based on what we’re seeing today, the market rally has plenty of upside left.
by winston » Mon Apr 22, 2024 9:08 pm
The Volatility Index (VIX) triggered a new buy signal when it closed back inside its Bollinger Bands earlier this week. We should see higher stock prices over the next several days.
Sell signals occur whenever the VIX closes below its lower Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands.
Buy signals occur when the VIX closes above its upper Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands.
It seems reasonable that any oversold bounce that comes off of this VIX buy signal could push the S&P 500 back up towards the resistance of its 50-day MA.
That would generate an excellent short-term gain.
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