InvestIdeas

El-Erian Warns: Beware A Global Economy With Little Fires Everywhere
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... everywhere

US$11tn wiped out in global rout

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... lobal-rout

Global bankruptcies will increase, warns Allianz

A bankruptcy trend is expected to become apparent around the world and the number of liquidations of Hong Kong companies may increase by 10 percent next year, according to a report by credit insurer Allianz Trade.

The war in Ukraine and China's strict Covid restrictions, are seen to be increasing risks facing businesses and the number of global corporate bankruptcies is set to rebound this year and next with increases of 10 percent and 14 percent respectively.

The figure for corporate liquidations in Hong Kong jumped around 28 percent year-on-year in 2021 to nearly 300.

Allianz Trade expects the number to remain roughly unchanged this year but to increase by 10 percent to 330 in 2023.

The number of insolvent Chinese companies is expected to increase by 1 percent this year and 11 percent in 2023.

In the United States the number of bankruptcies are expected to increase by 8 percent this year and 23 percent in 2023, though many US firms have built up strong cash reserves since the pandemic thanks to subsidies and surges in profit.

Companies everywhere, Allianz Trade notes, are again facing multiple headwinds, ranging from long-term supply chain disruptions and transport bottlenecks to high raw material costs and supply shortages.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ns-Allianz

G7 Finance Officials meeting in Germany

Focus:-
1) climate change
2) Ukraine support
3) food and energy support for emerging markets
4) inflation and
5) crypto

Source: Reuters

Supply Chains Are Never Returning To "Normal"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/suppl ... ing-normal

Economic outlook has 'darkened', warn in Davos

"We have at least four crises, which are interwoven. We have high inflation ... we have an energy crisis... we have food poverty, and we have a climate crisis.

Lagarde essentially promised rate hikes in both July and September to put a brake on inflation, even if rising borrowing costs are bound to weigh on growth.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... avos%C2%A0

Thirty years of globalization may be a thing of the past, Davos warns of economic downturn.

三十年全球化恐成過去式 達沃斯警告經濟下行 TVBS文茜的世界財經周報 20220529

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AR_Tz1IkmmI

The Top 10 Creepiest & Most Dystopian Things Pushed By The World Economic Forum

BY TYLER DURDEN

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... mpaign=706

The WEF’s Chief Economists Outlook from May 2022 cited “the perfect storm”, and listed 6 expectations for the future of the global economy:
1. Higher inflation alongside lower real wages globally
2. Food insecurity in developing economies
3. More localization, diversification and politicization of supply chains
4. Greater rollback of globalization in goods, labor and technology than services
5. Sanctions effective in dampening the economic outlook for Russia
6. Continued dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency

Additionally, the report cites that it is an incredibly complex environment for policy makers around the globe to navigate, specifying there are tough trade-offs to make.

They are:
1. Balancing the risks of inflation and contraction
2. Balancing the risks of food, fuel and inequality crisis with higher debt and the risk of default
3. Balancing the risks of continued fossil fuel use against the shift to green energy
4. Balancing national priorities with long-term, global goals

In April, the WEF downgraded its forecasts on 143 countries, representing 86% of global GDP, and noted that in the short period of time since then, the situation has worsened.

Source: Simply Wall Street