Risks Out There 06 (May 20 - Dec 24)

[winston]

Falling global trade and rising debt point to grim outlook for 2024

The world must face the reality that China’s property sector is not the biggest economic threat and the chance of ‘soft landings’ elsewhere is just an illusion

Legacies of past monetary and fiscal excesses and present economic systemic fragmentation, will undermine major economies

by Anthony Rowley

Not collapsing, just crumbling. That would be a good way to describe the state of the global economy at present, and now that it has begun sliding, it probably won’t be long before it really hits the skids. Then, it’s downhill all the way.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... tlook-2024

[winston]

China report lists top 5 global risks, with US responsible for most of them

Influential intelligence-linked think tank, identifies American presidential race as a ‘prominent’ risk to global development and security

Other challenges include conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, geopolitical repositioning and constraints on technology and trade, it says

by Orange Wang

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... e=homepage

[behappyalways]

Visualizing The Top Global Risks In 2024
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... risks-2024

[winston]

A Pessimist’s Guide to Global Economic Risks in 2024

1. The Middle East Is On the Brink
2. The Fed Could Get Burned (Again)
3. While Europe Feels the Chill
4. China Looks Wobbly
5. Japan Risks Losing (Yield Curve) Control
6. Ukraine at a Tipping Point
7. Game-Changing Elections in Taiwan
8. US presidential Election

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pessimis ... 11236.html

[winston]

The stock market could crash 23% this year if these 3 risks become reality, UBS says

by Matthew Fox

The stock market has a downside scenario that could spark a S&P 500 crash of more than 20%, according to UBS.

The bank highlighted three big risks investors should be aware of even as record highs are hit.

A potential recession, rising inflation, and geopolitical turmoil are all looming over investors.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 47320.html

[winston]

Is $203 Trillion In Derivatives Held By Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan And Other Top Banks Causing an 'Everything Bubble?'

by Caleb Naysmith

This figure surpasses the world's gross domestic product (GDP) by roughly double, highlighting the enormity of the market.

JPMorgan Chase, in particular, is noted for its substantial exposure to derivatives risk, topping the list with roughly $58 trillion in derivatives.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/203-tril ... 16059.html

[behappyalways]

US CRE Exposure weighs on Japanese Bank
https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/ ... 5004641783


Dark Skies at Aozora Bank
https://westonnakamura.substack.com/p/d ... ozora-bank

[behappyalways]

Chilling AI predicts 8 events that could trigger World War 3 and kill MILLIONS
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ArSdrpzLVaw

[behappyalways]

The world's number one risk in 2024
Eurasia Group: The Battle of the United States

2024世界頭號風險 歐亞集團:美國之戰 TVBS文茜的世界周報 20240210

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nuv0LfWdReU

[winston]

A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy, Morgan Stanley's chief economist says

by Jennifer Sor

A hard landing is guaranteed for the US Morgan Stanley's chief US economist.

That's because the full impacts of Fed tightening haven't been fully felt in the economy.

It could take 18 months after the last rate hike to feel the full weight of higher rates, economists say.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hard-lan ... 44035.html