"What did the FOMC say? What is the market's possible reaction?"
'23.11.02【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「FOMC說了什麼?市場可能反應為何」
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DF8lY96qMX4
With investment-grade corporate bonds yielding 4% to 6%, “you don’t have to stretch in [terms of] risk for returns”.
When it comes to geopolitical risk, “companies are very focused on volatility in geographies,” Shah said. That’s bullish for supply-chain diversity, benefiting India and Japan.
Another theme is companies diversifying from fossil fuels, with continued investment in alternative energy.
“The rise of AI increases the capability of bad actors, requiring more defense [on the part of legitimate companies]. There will be material opportunities in defense.”
“Consumers are looking for experiences over goods. They are going back to normal behavior.”
There is a strong case for overweighting U.S. stocks short term but not long term. As for sectors, she likes health care, pharmaceuticals, steel and autos.
Meanwhile, gold and other commodities also represent attractive portfolio diversifiers.
The outperformance of tech vs the broader S&P 500 is now the most extreme that it’s ever been.
The dip kept dipping so they flushed all of their long exposure to 2023 lows.
Hedge funds were aggressively short going into November.
Since February of 2020 energy, as a sector, has outperformed technology,. the NASDAQ and large cap growth.
1. The worst of inflation may be 'behind us'
2. Gas prices near lowest levels since 2020
3. AI isn't new, but generative AI has accelerated demand
4. The US staved off recession so far, though vibes vary across income groups
5. The housing market perplexes buyers, sellers, and builders
6. After strong year-to-date returns, what's next for the Magnificent Seven tech stocks?
7. What the year of collective bargaining says about today's employment situation
8. Retailers morph Black Friday into a monthlong promotional event
9. Travel roars back as Taylor Swift, Beyoncé power live events
The key mistake to avoid is trying to “catch a falling knife.” As a stock falls, it does get cheaper, but timing bottoms in asset prices is the hardest way to invest. You’ll do better by waiting for an upward trend to form and riding that momentum.
No. 1: Wait Six Months
No. 2: Wait for Positive Momentum
Ways to measure positive momentum:
a. Positive 12-month price change
b. The stock is above its 200-day moving average (“DMA”)
c. The stock’s 50-DMA is above its 200-DMA
No. 3: Reexamine the Fundamentals
1. Do you stick with the Magnificent 7 in 2024?
2. 2024 'should be better' for emerging markets
3. Smalls caps and other 'cheap interest rate sensitive plays'
4. Consumer discretionary stocks a 'top idea' for 2024
5. ‘Be ready to shift’ your investment strategy
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