Investment Strategies 04 (Apr 19 - Dec 24)

[behappyalways]

"There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and US stocks fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term"

23.11.30【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「觀望氣氛濃厚 美股短線狹幅波動」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bs4nVugq-ic&t=1s

[winston]

Forecasting 2024: Bonds triumph amid recession risks and equity market uncertainties

by Simon Ree

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a reliable barometer of economic prospects, has been trending lower for 18 consecutive months. Historically, this kind of trend is a strong sign that we’re heading for a recession.

Coupled with this, the ISM new orders index—a key indicator of future demand—has contracted relentlessly for 14 months straight.

The ISM manufacturing data shows that this critical engine of the economy has been mired in contraction for 12 straight months.

In just over one year, CPI inflation has plummeted from a high of 9.1% to a mild 3.7%.

Proportion of banks tightening rather than loosening standards for commercial loans has now hit almost 50%.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capita ... ity-market

[winston]

Invesco Expects US to Cut Rates from End of 1H24; Geopolitical Risks Still Relatively High

Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, anticipated the global economy to decelerate moderately in the first half of 2024, before recovering in the second half of the year.

Hooper forecast the US to begin rate cuts towards the end of the first half of 2024, which would weaken the US Dollar.

She believed that the upcoming geopolitical risks will remain relatively high, but noted the immense potential in equities, especially cyclical small-cap stocks, as well as investments in Asia and emerging markets.

Related News: Yellen Reiterates Need for US to Reduce Over-reliance on CN in Key Supply Chains

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

HSBC Global Private Bank Expects Fed to Start Cutting Rates in 3Q24; Improved Outlook for Stock & Bond Mkt

HSBC Global Private Bank expects the US Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in 3Q24, with the Fed Funds rate expected to fall to between 4% and 4.25% by the end of 2025.

This, coupled with a soft landing in the US economy, a rebound in corporate earnings and solid growth in Asia, will improve global appetite for risk and the outlook for equity and bond markets next year.

Looking ahead over the next 6 months, the bank will adopt a modestly risk-averse investment strategy, reducing cash holdings and maintaining a modest Overweight allocation to US Treasuries, global investment grade bonds and hedge funds.

The bank is Neutral on global equities, with an Overweight to US, emerging Asia and Latin America.

In Asian (ex-Japan) equities, the bank favours structural growth leaders and is moderately Overweight in India, Indonesia and South Korea.

It is Neutral on Mainland China and Hong Kong equities, focusing on opportunities in the consumer services sector.

The bank maintains a bullish view on the US dollar, with high real yields, better growth than other developed economies and geopolitical uncertainty, supporting safe-haven demand.

Following the significant repricing of the bond market this year, the bank believes that high-quality bonds will be the most attractive asset class in 1H24.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

JPM Asset Mgmt Says US Fed May Cut Rates As Soon As 2H24, Favors Fixed-income & Bearish on Cash

Tai Hui, chief market strategist for the Asia-Pacific at JP Morgan Asset Management, said that the market was overly optimistic in predicting rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve in the first half of 2024, believing that the rate cuts will likely not take place until the second half of 2024.

Hui remarked that, under the environment of persisting high interest rates, short-term financial pressure might emerge in March or May in 2024.

He, however, viewed the current interest rate risk as manageable.

Hui advised investors to prioritize deployment for fixed-income, bonds and etc., followed by equities. The strategist remained bearish on cash with no appreciation potential.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

BlackRock Expects US to Cut Rate in 2H24, CN Still Needs to Cope with Local & Int'l Challenges

The global economy is facing structural changes, and that it is difficult to solve the issues, according to Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for APAC at BlackRock Investment.

Central banks' monetary policy must continue to respond to a completely different macro environment.

Powell believed that the Fed may become more neutral in its policy. It is expected that the US will not begin to cut interest rates until 2H24, with a lighter magnitude than that in the past.

Related News: MOF Plans to Raise Max Investment Ratio of NSSF into Stocks/ Equity Assets to 40%/ 30%

For China, Powell believed that China's growth outlook remains gloomy as it still needs to continue to deal with different key challenges locally and internationally.

If China's experience growth target for 2024 is about 5%, it is likely that the authorities will have to provide more support policies, especially for financial measures, to offset challenges such as weaker consumer confidence and real estate woes, Powell said.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

"The expectation of interest rate cut is too strong, will it cause short-term shock pressure?"

'23.12.07【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「降息預期太強烈 成短線震盪壓力？」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yIz4QoNhmWA

[winston]

Citi projects economic slowdown in 2024 but no recession

by Ines Ferré

We’re projecting no recession, rather a slowing of the economy," with a reacceleration in the second half of 2024 into 2025.

Citi Global Wealth’s investment ideas include:
1. Semiconductor equipment makers
2. Cybersecurity stocks
3. Western energy producers, equipment, and distributors
4. Copper miner equity/clean energy infrastructure
5. Defense contractors
6. Medical technology, tools companies

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-pro ... 44277.html

[behappyalways]

"'The Most Important'"

'23.12.14【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「『最重要』的FOMC透露出那些訊息？」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D0PS0MXeBHs

[winston]

Low inflation, interest rate cuts and no recession in 2024? Not so fast

There is reason for optimism after the Federal Reserve’s surprise interest rate decision but there are also still plenty of reasons for caution

The fact that markets are expecting the smoothest of touchdowns for the US economy next year should be ringing alarm bells

by Nicholas Spiro

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... ot-so-fast