Inflation or Deflation 02 (Aug 14 - Dec 24)

[behappyalways]

China's factory-gate inflation surges to highest in 26 years
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/g ... t-26-years

[behappyalways]

Climate inflation

美國CPI自5月維持高檔 聯準會認為"暫時的" TVBS文茜的世界財經周報 20211010 X 富蘭克林‧國民的基金
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0JwXhEg3PVs

[behappyalways]

全球通膨是短暫現象 還是長期經濟危機? TVBS文茜的世界財經周報 20211017 X 富蘭克林‧國民的基金
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YAfwo4M6Ank

[behappyalways]

Inflationary Storm Forces Unilever To Raise Prices Fastest In Seven Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/i ... even-years

[winston]

Transitory Inflation?

Last week, Fortune published a story comparing the costs of goods and services today to those costs one year ago. See if the below better reflects your personal inflation experience:

Bacon: +19.3% over the past year
Ground beef: +10.8%
Pork ribs: +19.2%
Chicken: +7.5%
Fresh fish: +10.7%
Eggs: +12.6%
Apples: +7.8%
Carbonated drinks: +5.3%
Peanut butter: +6.2%
Food from vending machines: +6%
Beer (retail, not at a restaurant or bar): +1.6%
Gasoline: +42.1%
Propane, kerosene, and firewood: +27.6%
Natural gas: +20.6%
Rental cars: +42.9%
Living room, kitchen, and dining room furniture: +13.7%
Washer and dryer: +19.1%
Women’s dresses: +9.5%
Children’s shoes: +11.9%
New cars: +8.8%
Used cars: +24.4%
TVs: +12.7%
Hotel rooms: +17.5%
Haircuts: +5%
Let’s add another huge one…rent.

From CNBC, earlier this week:

Demand for single-family rental homes is showing no sign of easing up, and that is pushing rents through the roof, especially for the highest-priced properties…

Nationally, rents rose 9.3% in August, year over year, up from a 2.2% year-over-year increase in August 2020, according to CoreLogic.

For the first time since before the pandemic hit, all major metropolitan housing markets covered by CoreLogic showed positive rent growth.

That 9.3% average number masks many higher-price markets. For example, in Las Vegas, rents are up 15%. In Phoenix, 19%. And in Miami, they’re up a whopping 21%...again, in just one year.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Deflation will overcome hyperinflation says Wood

Deflationary forces will overcome the supply-chain induced price pressures buffeting the world economy, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood said in a tweet after a Jack Dorsey post on hyperinflation.

The three sources of deflation Wood flagged are:
1. The impact of technological advances like artificial intelligence;
2. Creative destruction from disruptive innovation, that pushes down the price of obsolete goods; and
3. Cyclical factors due to the pandemic whereby firms ramped up orders to meet reviving demand and will eventually be left with excess supply and unwinding prices after the holiday season.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... -says-Wood

[behappyalways]

貨櫃亂 消費增 油價飆 疫後全球高通膨 還會漲－李四端的雲端世界
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ciE1JFuE5dU

[winston]

Larry Summers on Inflation

In an op-ed piece for the Washington Post earlier this week, Summers began by noting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech in late August.

If you recall, it highlighted five pillars supporting the “transitory” view of inflation.

Here’s Summers:

Today, all five pillars are wobbly at best.

First, there was a claim that price increases were confined to a few sectors. No longer. In October, prices for commodity goods outside of food and energy rose at more than a 12 percent annual rate. Various Federal Reserve system indexes that exclude sectors with extreme price movements are now at record highs.

Second, Powell suggested that high inflation in key sectors, such as used cars and durable goods more broadly, was coming under control and would start falling again. In October, used-car prices accelerated to more than a 30 percent annual inflation rate, new cars to a 17 percent rate and household furnishings by an annualized rate of just above 10 percent.

Third, the speech pointed out that there was “little evidence of wage increases that might threaten excessive inflation.” This claim is untenable today with vacancy and quit rates at record highs, workers who switch jobs in sectors ranging from fast food to investment banking getting double-digit pay increases, and ominous Employment Cost Index increases.

Fourth, the speech argued that inflation expectations remained anchored. When Powell spoke, market inflation expectations for the term of the next Federal Reserve chair were around 2.5 percent. Now they are about 3.1 percent, up half a percentage point in the past month alone…

Fifth, Powell emphasized global deflationary trends. In the same week the United States learned of the fastest annual inflation rate in 30 years, Japan, China and Germany all reported their highest inflation in more than a decade.

Bottom line, I hope Kashkari, Daly, and Powell are (eventually) correct about inflation, despite being woefully wrong so far.

Source: Investor Place

[behappyalways]

Cargill CEO Ditches 'Team Transitory', Warns Of Persistent Food Inflation
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... -inflation

[behappyalways]

全球通膨苦! 日本籲企業漲薪.拋刺激方案｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞 20211222
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TTCnNKxgyas&t=211s