Investment Strategies 05 (Nov 23 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

30 year UST yields now > S&P EPS yield for the 1st time in 23 years
https://x.com/themarketear/status/1926220055320080660

[winston]

Navigating global headwinds and capital shifts in Asia Pacific

by Ivy Ng

Neutral risk stance across our portfolios.

While regional equities present occasional trading opportunities driven by extremes in risk-reward or positive developments, we are cautious overall.

US equity valuations remain high and the risks of recession or stagflation could lead to prolonged market corrections.

As a result, we maintain an overweight position in European equities, and focus on sectors with stronger defensive characteristics like global healthcare.
For the US, we are underweight in consumer sectors, industrials and materials due to concerns over an economic slowdown. Conversely, we are overweight in healthcare, financials and utilities, which offer relative stability. Recent additions have brought us to an overweight position in communication services, information technology and energy.

The euro and yen are increasingly favoured as portfolio diversifiers, replacing the US dollar.

China's domestically oriented sectors, such as toll roads, banks and real estate, may appear more resilient but are not immune to the broader slowdown. Chinese banks and property developers face mounting challenges, and while stimulus measures may offer limited reprieve, structural issues persist.

Japan remains our highest conviction market, benefiting from low valuations, strong earnings recovery trends and higher share buybacks.

Two major trends are shaping the broader capital flow picture - the repatriation of emerging market (EM) capital from the US and the eventual return of US capital to global markets, particularly EMs.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... ia-pacific