Risks Out There 07 (May 23 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

BREAKING: US margin debt jumped +$57.2 billion in October, to a record $1.2 trillion.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1993770317689344470

[winston]

3 Catalysts That Can Spark a Stock Market Crash in 2026

by Sean Williams

“Equity prices are fairly highly valued”

Multiple hyped bubbles burst on Wall Street eg. AI, Quantum Computing, Bitcoin Treasury Companies etc.

Fed dissent pushes the stock market over the edge

Source: The Motley Fool

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/12/08/ ... h-in-2026/

[winston]

Central bank body BIS raises concerns of gold and stocks double bubble

The combination of gold and share prices soaring in unison is a phenomenon not seen in at least half a century and raises questions of a potential bubble in both,

"The interesting phenomenon this time has been that gold has become much more like a speculative asset."

Where would investors shelter if stocks and gold both crash. And what could it mean for central banks and other reserve managers given some have been heavy buyers of gold.

Another possible bubble warning sign is that retail investors have also been piling in.

The BIS gave a broader warning too about the "growing fragility" of the risk-on environment amid the concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and the recent 20 percent dives in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

The BIS is also watching where the dollar goes from here. This year it is headed for its biggest annual drop since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2007.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/wealth-a ... le/318778/

[behappyalways]

All bear witness to rise in global interest rates.
https://x.com/SeabreezeLP/status/1998748129605136575


Japanese bonds collapsed, US bonds soared and global markets are in an uproar!
日债崩，美债飙，全球市场在咆哮！
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=om7hTroKTLg

[behappyalways]

BIS Warns Of Rare "Double Bubble"

Rare “double bubble” forming across both gold and equity markets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bis-w ... ble-bubble

[winston]

Investors must reckon with unknowns

When it comes to the outlook for 2026, the “known unknowns" far outnumber what is known

by R Sivanithy

The US Federal Reserve just cut rates again and now projects only one more cut in 2026, signaling a long plateau rather than a rapid return to near-zero rates.

Inflation has come down but not all the way back to the pre-Covid-19 level. Forecasts see global inflation trending lower, towards roughly 3.6 per cent in 2026, with advanced economies in the mid-2 per cent range.

JPMorgan’s latest estimate is still a 35 per cent chance of a US and global recession next year.

Global AI capex is expected to exceed US$570 billion in 2026, driven by data centres, chips and network upgrades.

S&P 500 profits are projected to grow in the mid-teens with AI-linked firms contributing a disproportionate amount.

AI Capex is gigantic but the timeline for broad-based monetisation is unclear.

The unknown unknowns – could come from anywhere: a sudden regulatory clampdown on AI, a major cyber-incident, a geopolitical shock or a financial accident in private credit or shadow banking.

Markets have grown so used to believing that the Fed will backstop any major collapse that if this fails, nobody knows what the end result might be.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... n-unknowns

[winston]

Four Forces of Decline

by James Hickman

1) Forces of History-- the inevitable, cyclical nature in the rise and fall of Empire. No empire, no civilization in human history has ever retained the top spot forever and most tend to experience similar challenges on the way down.

2) Forces of Society-- the vicious way in which a society eats itself from within, vanquishing the ability and inclination to solve complex problems.

3) Forces of Economy-- the debilitating toll that enormous debts, deficits and currency inflation, take on a nation and its people.

4) Forces of Energy-- when energy is cheap and abundant, prosperity reigns. When energy is expensive, prosperity wanes. The relationship couldn’t be more clear.

Source: Schiff Sovereign

[behappyalways]

The stock market is calm, gold prices are soaring, the VIX index is distorted and systemic risks are quietly emerging?

股市平静，黄金暴涨，VIX指数失真，系统性风险悄然爆发？

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Io3UUSD55 ... 4Bo7VqN5tD

[winston]

Wolfe Research outlines eight risks that could spark stock declines in 2026

by Scott Kanowsky

1. Rise in retail investors
2. Investors have been lulled by this compression in volatility
3. More debt issuance and the circular nature of some AI sector deals are a flashing sign that "the current environment is transforming into a bubble."
4. The U.S. federal debt load is now "on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory"
5. There is "significant uncertainty" around the level and outlook for long-term interest rates
6. Should more credit issues surface and become widespread, "this would serve as a downside catalyst for both the economy and equity markets"
7. Rising leverage in multi-strategy hedge funds, coupled with financial deregulation, could exaggerate equity market declines to extremes as well
8. Outside of the U.S., a "meltdown" in Japanese sovereign debt yields due to "unexpected policy changes" could "inspire sharp drawdowns"

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/news/economy- ... 26-4447117

[behappyalways]

Pt.2 Japan is immobilized!

26.01.21【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.2 日本動彈不得！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DzmHYlhk__A