Market Timing 08 (Apr 2023 - Dec 26)

[winston]

We're Rallying ... Right Over a Cliff

If you're scratching your head as to how markets could rise for 7-straight days amid growing bad news about the economy, then you're not alone.

by Bret Jensen

It certainly isn't because growth prospects are improving.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is currently projecting fourth-quarter growth will be only 25% of the third quarter's growth.

Bloomberg also recently said that S&P 500 companies are citing "weak demand" more during third-quarter earnings season than at any time to date this century and crude oil prices have plunged to three-month lows.

Job growth is clearly slowing over the past few months. Over 60% of Americans are also living paycheck to paycheck, according to the latest surveys. That's one reason credit card debt just hit a record $1.08 trillion in the third quarter, up $154 billion from a year ago. The debt is rising just as credit card interest rates are at historical highs.

U.S. banking lending standards have tightened across the board once again in the third quarter. The report noted almost 30% of banks tighten their standards on small firm C&I loans. Based on historical trends, Deutsche Bank Research articulated this has meant a 90% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.

Source: The Street

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/stocks/ ... f-16137544

[winston]

ETF to Cover $8 Billion in Short Options and the Market Knows It

by Jan-Patrick Barnert

The $7.7 billion Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF sells call options on the Nasdaq 100 to increase returns from the performance of shares in the index.

Thanks to the technology benchmark’s almost 10% rally since late October, the ETF’s short position expiring Friday, is now well below the index’s current level, meaning the fund will need to buy thousands of futures contracts to cover.

The transaction will create about $8 billion in Nasdaq futures to be bought as the hedge comes off.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etf-cove ... 53572.html

[winston]

The Next Market Rally Could Go Higher and Longer Than Anyone is Expecting

by Sean Michael Cummings

It’s pretty rare for the market to rise for eight days in a row. We’ve only seen those win streaks 13 times over the past 33 years.

But a string of eight consecutive up days tends to signal more gains ahead.

We have a serious sentiment washout. And we have a good risk-to-reward setup after the recent win streak.

The next market rally could go higher and longer than anyone is expecting… so make sure your portfolio is positioned to benefit.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/11/14/ ... expecting/

[behappyalways]

When large funds close, the cycle is just about to favor them.
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/statu ... 0525175076

[winston]

S&P 500 Rally May Be at Risk After a 9.6% Gain in Three Weeks

by Joanna Ossinger

Concerns about the gauge include the fact that stocks often rally on signs of softness in the US economy because that means the Federal Reserve is less likely to continue raising rates.

But in the end, weaker data also is just that — weaker.

In addition, some technical indicators are starting to look stretched.

Eventually, the stock market is going to realize that a decline in inflation does not mean that the era of ‘free money’ has returned.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-ra ... 38846.html

[winston]

The S&P 500 is Staging a Furious Rally (market could soar more than anyone expects)

by Sean Michael Cummings

Burry closed his large short position.

Since 1927, we’ve only had five RSI whipsaws like the one we saw this month. And 80% of these cases led to outperformance.

Only two weeks ago, stocks were just about as hated as they could get.

That’s starting to change already. And it tells us the market could be poised to soar more than anyone expects.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/11/21/ ... e-expects/

[winston]

Why We Won’t See a Stock Market Crash Anytime Soon

by Marc Lichtenfeld

There are a lot of moving parts that affect the economy and markets, but as long as unemployment stays very low, I have a hard time envisioning “everything” crashing.

Lots of people say they’re going to buy when prices go lower, but in reality, most investors are too scared to do so because they’re afraid of further losses.

It’s not until stocks have recovered in a big way that they finally feel comfortable investing their cash.

Another way to avoid fearing a crash is to take any money out of the market that you’ll need within around three years.

This way, your long-term money will still be invested and growing while the funds you’ll need in the short term to pay bills will be protected.

Source: Wealthy Retirement

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/11/29/ ... time-soon/

[winston]

JPMorgan says S&P 500 will fall next year amid 'challenging macro backdrop'

by Josh Schafer

Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan ... 0Wednesday.

[winston]

SPY: Is a Correction on the Horizon?

If the Fed successfully facilitates a "soft landing" for the economy, implementing rate cuts while avoiding a recession, this could potentially set off a stock market rally.

Conversely, investors might encounter unexpected skepticism if economic growth continues at its current pace and inflation returns in the following months.

With the current bullish trend and the anticipated positive impact of the holiday season, stocks could maintain their rally, even reaching previous high levels.

Source: The INO.com Team

https://www.ino.com/blog/2023/11/spy-is ... =blogclick

[winston]

History is Signaling a Double-Digit Rally for U.S. Stocks

by Chris Igou

The fear we saw in October is starting to fade. And the market’s “fear gauge” shows a new run higher is likely starting.

Specifically, it suggests a double-digit rally is underway.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2023/12/01/h ... -s-stocks/