Asset Allocation 01 (Jun 09 - Jul 13)

[winston]

by lithium » Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:14 pm

I decided to buy AMVIG with 10% of my fund.

AMVIG (10%)
Cash (90%)

[b0rderc0llie]

I removed my short positions (hedges) in April when STI was 3,000 and dow 11,000, to move into an all long position. Sold some stocks then to raise cash to buy on dips.

Had done buying on the dips. Current position is 100% equity 0% cash.

My strategy now is to wait for the economy to recover and hold my positions till the next boom. The temptation to sell in order to buy at a lower price is there, but I want to keep away from the markets.

[millionairemind]

I removed my short positions (hedges) in April when STI was 3,000 and dow 11,000, to move into an all long position. Sold some stocks then to raise cash to buy on dips.

Had done buying on the dips. Current position is 100% equity 0% cash.

My strategy now is to wait for the economy to recover and hold my positions till the next boom. The temptation to sell in order to buy at a lower price is there, but I want to keep away from the markets.

Y keep away?? Busy traveling?

I always tot you would be 100% invested at bottoms and 50% invested at tops.

[kennynah]

BC :

ou need to get your cars out for some serious raving.... so..i can understand.. you need to be away...

anyways... there's a lot more to life than the markets...

enjoy yourself... see u next year

[b0rderc0llie]

MM: My original plan was to prepare for a recession. Now, I am preparing for a recovery, and would like to be 100% invested when that happens. It's going to take some time for that to happen, and I would like to keep away so that I do not sell too early. One good way to keep away is to travel more often

When it is top again, then it is time for another plan, maybe to sell off 50% and invest into another asset class like property (if it is cheap then).

Kenny: I'll still be around. May have something to do in the options market.

[kennynah]

Options market?? Cool... Drop us a note.. I'll be eagle eyed to see your gameplan..

[winston]

Hi BC,

I can see where you are coming from. You are assuming that the economy will continue to improve and that stocks would therefore rebound with it.

As for me, I cant really see where the economy is heading nor where the markets are heading, despite having gone thru a few economic cycles and spending 15 hours a day monitoring things ..

I'm concerned about the following now:-

1) Prices may have overshoot economic fundamentals

2) Prices always lead the economy by 6 to 12 months. With instantaneous info nowadays, the lead could be 18 months. Therefore, any hint of a double dip may sent stocks lower. It could start from the European Contagion or a slowdown in China..

3) Many people did not manage to get out before the financial crisis. They may be selling now especially if they are baby boomers that will be retiring soon.


Nowadays, I try to stay flexible. Whenever, I'm confident, I get into trouble.

Before the financial crisis, I moved some of my positions into "Dividend Stocks". I could feel that something was not right and I was confident that 'Dividend Stocks" could be the shelter. Make a few percent while I ride out the storm. When the storm came, I did make a few percent but lost a lot of the principal.

I was very confident then and that was what got me into trouble

Take care,
Winston

[b0rderc0llie]

Before the financial crisis, I moved some of my positions into "Dividend Stocks". I could feel that something was not right and I was confident that 'Dividend Stocks" could be the shelter. Make a few percent while I ride out the storm. When the storm came, I did make a few percent but lost a lot of the principal.

During the storm, we will lose a lot of capital. If we stay invested until the storm clears up, we will regain the capital and get more when the weather is good.

Of course, if we know that a storm is coming, it will be best to get out completely and then to get in completely just before the storm clears.

[kanglc]

Problem is i don't know whether i'll be able to do that asset allocation switch at the right times when another crisis hits, and it will.

[Chinaman]

Well the answer still boils down to right timing……..this 1 nber ending debate.

What is Asset? To me basically are:
Property, Stock, Bond, Cash and Insurance.

My opinion is asset (capital) preservation is more important than allocation….shd be referring to those asset rich folks .

Actually the current pause or decline of stock market could be healthy whereby it allows corporate earning to catch up their balance sheet.
So in term of stock market return, the worse now could be the better later…

Haha.. Today bro K, no sound no pic leh.