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by winston » Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:56 pm
Since 1950, losing streaks of four or more weeks led to 5% gains over six months and 9.8% gains over the following year.
You don’t have to panic right now. And if history plays out as expected, you still want to own stocks today.
by winston » Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:20 am
Stocks have room to rally 14% this year, according to Piper Sandler strategist Craig Johnson.
Johnson pointed to various indicators eg. S&P 500 breadth, Bank of America's Bull and Bear Indicator, VIX etc. that suggest the S&P 500 is oversold
Stocks look fairly resilient when considering the current array of economic headwinds, he said.
by winston » Thu Oct 26, 2023 11:13 am
by winston » Thu Oct 26, 2023 10:23 pm
After last week’s ugly action, the conditions are in place for a sustainable rally, into the end of the year.
Of course, there aren’t any guarantees.
For reference, though, traders who bought into this same type of setup last year enjoyed a 14% gain in the S&P 500 within six weeks.
A similar move this year would have the index trading at new highs for the year by Christmas.
by behappyalways » Fri Oct 27, 2023 9:43 am
by winston » Fri Oct 27, 2023 11:10 am
Stockton said that 4,180 is a key support level that needs to be preserved to prevent further selling.
Extreme sentiment readings suggest to Stockton that a reversal in stock prices could be imminent.
by winston » Tue Oct 31, 2023 11:21 am
US stocks are set to underperform, according to Vanguard's chief investment officer.
The firm estimated the S&P 500 would yield between 4.7%-6.7% over the next few years.
That's well below its recent average, thanks to two dynamics that are weakening the outlook for equities:-
1. Valuations are too high
2. The risk premium in the stock market is too low.
by winston » Thu Nov 02, 2023 8:26 am
The S&P 500 peaked near 4600. It closed Friday near 4120. That’s a 10% decline in three months.
Buying stocks today is a whole lot better than buying them three months ago.
Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 (BPSPX) is 23.
by winston » Thu Nov 02, 2023 10:08 pm
Data shows that November kicks off one of the most seasonally strong periods going back decades.
We may have already seen the bottom. And the first piece of evidence is how much more fundamentally healthy the market is looking right now…
As of today, just 19% of companies in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average. That’s up from the 6% on October 1. This is still lousy, shows that the market is getting a lot healthier.
Sell In May And Buy In November
Now’s one of the best times I’ve seen in a long while to begin shopping for stocks.
Don’t let fear keep your portfolio on the sidelines. The odds point to the makings of a rally beginning soon.
by winston » Wed Nov 08, 2023 8:27 am
In October, the Bank of America (“BofA”) Bull & Bear Indicator slid to 1.5… its lowest level since November 2022.
The October AAII bullish reading plunged 5 percentage points to just 29%. That’s well below its historic average of 38%.
Of course, stocks could fall further from here. But history shows it’s still too soon to give up on the market. Today’s extreme pessimism could even fuel a big rally to end the year.
A 10% drawdown is painful… but it isn’t a definitive bull market killer. Stocks still have room to run – so don’t let this correction shake you out of the market.
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