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by winston » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:06 pm
Stocks could crater 25% from their current level if the Fed carries on raising rates, according to FS Investments' Troy Gayeski.
The US central bank's monetary tightening could also lead to a fourth-quarter recession, he said.
The economy "will soon be one of the biggest threats to equity prices"
by winston » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:48 pm
by winston » Tue Jul 11, 2023 9:50 pm
The trend is in our favor. It’s strong enough that stocks have soared more than 20%. No matter how you look at it, we’ve entered a new bull market.
You might be telling yourself this is a sucker’s rally. After the pain of last year, you might think it’s safer to stay out of the market. But that’s a mistake.
History shows this boom is real. It’s time to get off the sidelines and put money to work.
by winston » Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:43 am
Valuations are stretched, earnings are poised to fall, inflation is still too high, interest rates are higher to be seen, and everyone and their grandmother are expecting a recession.
When the market and/or the stock is topping out or bottoming out, it will take some time before you see that in the earnings or the earnings estimates of the company.
And, when you finally come to this realization about earnings, you will recognize that following earnings will likely lead you to always being caught looking the wrong way when it counts – at the major market turns. Until then, you will likely believe yourself to be a genius, until you get caught at the next highs or lows.
As long as the S&P 500 remains over 4264-4275SPX, I think we have the potential to push to a high over 4458SPX before a top may be seen, with our next resistance being in the 4505SPX region.
by winston » Mon Jul 17, 2023 10:42 am
S&P 500 firms are expected to post a 9% drop in profits in the second quarter, making it the worst season since 2020.
In Europe, it may be even worse, with a projected 12% slump.
Five things investors are watching:
1. Big Tech Influence
2. Inflation Effect
3. Consumer Squeeze
4. Europe’s Waning Outperformance
5. Choppy China Rebound
by winston » Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:43 pm
The market lost money last year… then turned it around for a 15%-plus gain in the first half of 2023.
That kind of recovery almost never happens. We’ve only seen four other instances in the past 73 years.
You might still feel uneasy about putting money to work. But you don’t want to let fear keep you on the sidelines while everyone else starts racking up big profits.
History is clear as day on this situation… The trend is up. And we want to bet on higher prices right now.
by winston » Wed Jul 26, 2023 1:20 pm
Euphoric markets are being fueled mostly by hype around AI tech and excitement around slowing inflation.
We remain of the view that the delayed impact of the global interest rate shock (real estate, consumer credit, quantitative tightening and liquidity, etc.), steady erosion of consumer savings and post COVID pent-up demand and deeply troubling global geopolitical context, will result in market declines and re-emergence of market volatility.
by winston » Fri Jul 28, 2023 9:03 pm
1. U.S. Jobs Report: Friday, August 4
2. U.S. CPI Data: Thursday, August 10
3. Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium: Thursday-Saturday, August 24-26
4. Earnings Season Continues
by winston » Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:52 am
First, rising earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies is a phenomenon that has largely played out this year.
Second, investors may be too optimistic about the outlook for the US economy in 2024 leading to a strong reacceleration in earnings growth.
Thirdly, the looming presidential election in 2024 is a "source of uncertainty" for the stock market.
by winston » Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:29 am
We are nearly four months on, and the technical signals are weakening, and potential storm clouds are rolling in, I believe.
Kamich used a point-and-figure chart to map the likely path for 10-year Treasury yield. His calculation suggests that a 6% yield is possible.
The [consumer discretionary] chart suggests a pullback or correction is close to starting. Prices made a high in July and have dipped towards the rising 50-day moving average line.
Technology was a big winner in 2023...but prices are now testing the rising 50-day moving average line.
Traders and investors should take appropriation action. Sell calls, sell stock, buy puts, etc. This is not a drill.
We may have a window of time until the middle of September, just five weeks away, to "get set up for the next decline,
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