Market Timing 07 (Nov 22 - Dec 24)

[winston]

This Extreme Bullish Swing Predicts Big Gains for Stocks

By Sean Michael Cummings

When the put/call ratio is high, it means more folks are betting on a broad market decline.

And when the put/call ratio is low, it means more folks are betting on growth...

As of March 7, the ratio took a swan dive. It hit its lowest level in three years. The put/call ratio sank from 1.13 to 0.8. That reflects a big bull rush.

So even if this indicator isn't perfect... it's promising.

Based on the put/call ratio, the bulls are undeterred after a tough February. And if history is any guide, they may still win the year after all.

Source: True Wealth

[winston]

6 Stock Market Predictions for the Week Ahead

By Michael Kramer

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/6-st ... s_headline

[behappyalways]

40% of S&P 500 companies will enter their #blackout period for #buybacks as Q1 reporting approaches starting tomorrow. That removes a #buyer from the #market temporarily.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LanceRoberts ... 6573175809

[winston]

Two Key Levels Show How to Best Play the Market

by Imre Gams

The price trigger that’ll confirm this bearish scenario is if the market breaks through 3855, which is the closing price from the March 13 low. This breach will see the market trade lower to at least 3200.

On the other hand, bulls are hoping the market can break through 4179 on the upside. If the market can trade higher through this level, it would eliminate the bearish triangle scenario.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/03/25/ ... he-market/

[winston]

Stocks Could Jump 14% Over The Next 12 Months

by Brett Eversole

In just five weeks, the AAII bull ratio fell 32 percentage points. That’s the largest five-week drop we’ve seen at any point over the past decade.

Individual investors are scared right now. They’re reeling from the one-two punch of a banking crisis and a slumping stock market.

But as contrarians, we see this sentiment switch as an opportunity. History shows fantastic gains tend to follow reversals like today’s. That’s why you want to start buying once the trend moves in your favor.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/03/31/ ... 12-months/

[winston]

5 Reasons Tech Stocks Are Sprinting Into a New Bull Market

#1: Inflation Is Crashing
#2: The Labor Market Is Cracking
#3: Financial Stress Is Spiking
#4: A Fed Pause Is Inevitable
#5: Earnings Are Impressively Resilient

Source: Hypergrowth Investing

[winston]

5 Technical Reasons We’re Sprinting Into a New Bull Market

#1: The S&P 500 Held the Line
#2: An Ultra-Rare “Triple Barrel” Breadth Thrust Buy Signal Was Triggered in January (Breakaway Momentum, Whaley Breadth Thrust, and Triple 70 Thrust)
#3: More and More Individual Stocks Are Flying to Fresh Highs
#4: The Market Retakes Its 200-day MA
#5: The Stock Market Has Triggered an Infallible “Super Golden Cross” Signal

Source: Hypergrowth Investing

[winston]

Why Easter 2023 Could Mark a Huge Market Turning Point

by Luke Lango

“December Low Indicator”

When stocks violate their December low within the first quarter of the following year, they usually stumble in that year.

Conversely, when stocks don’t violate their December low within the following year’s first quarter, stocks usually soar.

This December Low Indicator has a very impressive track record.

Going back to 1950, whenever stocks didn’t violate their December lows within the first quarter of the following year, they rallied 94% of the time, with an average annual return of nearly 20%!

In December 2022, the S&P 500’s closing low was 3,783. The lowest we got in the first quarter of 2023 was 3,808, on the third trading day of the year. After that, the lowest we got was 3,855 in early March.

The S&P 500 never closed below its December 2022 low in the first quarter of 2023.

Therefore, history says that stocks have a 94% chance of rallying about 20% this year.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Fed Pivot

Every single time the Fed has paused its rate-hike cycle over the past 40 years, stocks rallied over the next few months, with returns often running north of 20%.

This time will not prove different.

A Fed pivot is coming. So, too, is a big stock market rally.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Buy

Last week, the Coppock Curve triggered a buy signal, on adjusted parameters.

Red-hot inflation has turned into significant disinflation. Every time that has happened in the past, stocks rallied.

The Fed is likely to pause its rate-hike campaign within a few months. And similarly, every time that has happened in the past, stocks rallied.

Meanwhile, the economy is stable, earnings have been pretty good, and valuations are normal.

The ingredients are there for a massive stock market rally into the end of 2023.

Source: Hypergrowth Investing