Risks Out There 06 (May 20 - Dec 24)

[behappyalways]

Top World Bank Economist Says Financial Crisis Could Emerge From Pandemic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia

[behappyalways]

Bond yield continues to inch up

[behappyalways]

Watch from 7:20

大立光.台積電撐盤 台股5日線多空交戰！法人敲進三低概念股"長榮.華夏.精成科" 將成資金追捧焦點！│主播丁士芬│【iStock盤前解析】20201022│三立iNEWS
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=23XFPOnX8ps

Bond yield continues to inch up

[winston]

The stock market is set to fall over the next year — and is unprepared for 2 big risks, says Deutsche Bank’s wealth-management arm

By Steve Goldstein

Deutsche Bank is still cautious toward value stocks — automobile makers have been hurt both by the economic hit from the pandemic as well as the transition toward electric vehicles, and banks are struggling with the lower interest rates for longer environment.

“There is now a strong belief from our clients that rates will stay lower for longer and hence, they really have to do something, but it’s not like they are switching 50% of traditional government bonds directly into corporate credit, high yield, emerging markets or equity”.

“So as long as [the rise in coronavirus cases] doesn’t really lead to a second lockdown, then I think the markets will be fine. But if we are seeing a similar scenario, like March or April, then this is clearly not in the price yet.

Another risk is of an election result that is not clear in one direction or the other. The vote by mail will take time to be counted, and meanwhile, Trump could declare himself the winner, which could lead to volatility.

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... eid=yhoof2

[behappyalways]

A warning: France's finance minister said Friday that the country's economy would likely contract between October and December.
"We'll probably have a negative growth figure during the last quarter of the year," Bruno Le Maire told Europe 1 radio, according to Reuters.

Recession risk grows as Covid-19 cases continue to surge
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/23/inve ... index.html

[winston]

New Data Suggests a Stock Market Crash May Be Imminent

by Sean Williams

For the week ending Oct. 21, 2020, investors were net redeemers of fund assets (conventional funds and ETFs) to tune of $7.6 billion.

Here’s what’s concerning: This was the 11th consecutive week of fund outflows, when taken as a whole, and the 26th consecutive week for conventional fund outflows (excluding ETFs).

Domestic equity funds are also riding a 19-week streak of ongoing outflows.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/10/28/ ... -imminent/

[behappyalways]

Oil price is weak. Those oil producing countries might have to sell assets(equities for example) to raise funds or borrow more....

An old article

https://theprint.in/world/kuwait-one-of ... 94115/?amp

[winston]

Sentiment Speaks: Something Bad Is About To Happen

by Avi Gilburt

Summary

Black swan market declines are much more foreseeable than many believe.

Market sentiment patterns we track often times provide us advance warnings of "black swan" type of market drops.

We have a set up developing for another market drop in the coming weeks.

There is strong potential for a 10-15% pullback.

Lastly, I am viewing the next bout of market weakness as a buying opportunity.

The market weakness I expect as we head into November will likely set us up for the next rally I expect to the 4000-4250SPX region into the middle of 2021.

And, yes, this applies no matter who wins the election – assuming the market holds our outlined major support during the next decline.

This will be the final test for the market for the next 2-3 years, as we move towards my very long-term target of the 5000-6000 region to complete the bull market off the 2009 lows.

Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/438128 ... ent=link-3

[behappyalways]

I like the word warm up. I think we are going to see something significant soon. Prelude to a clash??? US is now just about to enter Winter season yet covid cases are surging. The peak cases might be two months away if nothing is done and probably another lockdown is unavoidable and a double dip recession. You see how the Chinese caught covid from frozen foods they handle so you can imagine the damage done as the weather becomes colder.

Bond yield surprising held up. Although analysts are saying that market is expecting stimulus, I think the main reason is too much supply at present. Too much issue of debts. It might continue to rise even as stock market falls, adding further pressure to the stock market as bond yield rises and hence its attractiveness increase. The reason why stock valuation is so high is because the alternative which is bond yield is low. So rising bond yield will cause a re-rating on stocks. Yield curve control looks probable as bond yield rise defies mighty feds.

Falling oil prices might force oil sovereign funds to offload stocks to raise funds to support their own country's spending or to bail out their 'important' industries or companies. Like airlines for example. Real estate companies could be another.

One thing to take note is the feds. It could be the game changer again but the recent QE has caused what we call a K shape recovery. The rich gets richer while the poor poorer.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9RHy8nhFwpE&t=16s

[behappyalways]

Chris Verrone of Strategas breaks down where rates could be headed
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MLmzDOgeT5o