Market Timing 08 (Apr 2023 - Dec 26)

[winston]

The Bull Market Isn’t Losing Steam

by Brett Eversole

The advance/decline line takes a daily total of the number of rising stocks minus the number of falling stocks. Each day’s number adds to the previous day. This creates a cumulative series that rises if more stocks are rising than falling.

Specifically, if the market is hitting new highs and the advance/decline line isn’t, that’s a warning sign… We don’t want to see only a few stocks leading the market higher.

The advance/decline line is part of the 5% that’s worth watching. Today, it’s giving the “all clear.” And history shows that the overall market will soon follow. That means we can ignore the noise, remain bullish, and stay long.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2026/08/05/ ... ing-steam/

[winston]

Stocks are in a late-stage bubble and poised to crash 21% next year, while Treasury yields above 5% will signal a new era of tight money, analysts say

by Jason Ma

Stock valuations are consistent with a late-stage bubble. For example, the market's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is close to its dotcom peak, while the S&P 500's valuation compared to Treasury bonds is also near dotcom extremes.

Expected earnings growth looks unsustainable. Forward 12-month earnings-per-share growth for the S&P 500 is in line with the peak of the dotcom bubble.

The sustainability of AI investment is in doubt amid massive spending and shrinking free cash flow. The combined free cash flow for the top AI hyperscalers is expected to turn negative in 2027.

Market-cap concentration of indexes in fewer stocks is at extreme levels, and that narrowness is often associated with unsustainable rallies.

Equity issuance is booming and consistent with a late-stage bubble.

Source: Fortune

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 20239.html

[winston]

Wall Street's Biggest Bubble May Be Bursting Before Our Eyes, and the Consequences for the Stock Market Are Nothing Short of Disastrous

by Sean Williams

Outstanding margin debt vaulted to an all-time high of $1.502 trillion in June 2026.

FINRA announced that July's outstanding margin debt declined to $1.417 trillion.

Although one month doesn't make a trend, history suggests we may be witnessing the bursting of Wall Street's sinister risk-taking bubble.

If the stock market's risk-taking bubble is in the early stages of bursting, as the last 30 years of history suggest, consider it an opportunity for long-term-minded investors to eventually pounce.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 01274.html