Market Timing 08 (Apr 2023 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Stop Worrying Whether This Bull Market is Over

by Brett Eversole

Two Reasons We Know Stocks Are Healthy Right Now

My favorite indicator of market health is the advance/decline line of the New York Stock Exchange. This indicator takes the number of winning stocks minus the number of losers each day. Then, it adds today’s total to yesterday’s and builds a cumulative data series.

When the advance/decline line is rising, that means more stocks are rising than falling. And it’s a simple, effective way to gauge market health.

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index.

This comprises the same stocks as the typical S&P 500. But instead of weighting them based on market cap, it holds each equally.

The equal-weight index broke out to a new high earlier this month.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/09/05/ ... t-is-over/

[winston]

3 Reasons the Summer Melt-Up Isn’t Over Yet

I’m feeling a little more bullish than normal heading into September.

By Louis Navellier

Reason #1: Strong Corporate Earnings
Reason #2: Monetary Easing
Reason #3: AI-Led Productivity Gains

Source: Growth Investor

https://investorplace.com/market360/202 ... -over-yet/

[winston]

We Want to Stay Invested Right Now

by Brett Eversole

You shouldn’t focus on buying low and selling high. Instead, buy high and sell higher.

Stock prices are high right now. But the trend is up. That means we’ll have a chance to sell higher in the future.

And that’s why we want to stay invested right now.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/10/08/w ... right-now/

[winston]

The Next Melt Up is Almost Here

by C. Scott Garliss

But the mania isn’t here yet… not with a record $7 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines in money-market accounts.

Lower rates may bring some of this money into riskier assets, as investors seek bigger returns and to keep up with inflated asset prices.

The next Melt Up may just be getting started. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t – or won’t – see pullbacks along the way.

Just keep your portfolio diversified. We continue to like high-quality stocks, hard assets like gold and bitcoin.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/10/13/ ... most-here/

[winston]

We Can Expect More Upside From U.S. Stocks From Here

by Brett Eversole

It’s never wise to fight a bull market. When prices are rising, that tends to continue.

The best thing to do when times are good… is nothing at all.

When stocks rise this high, this fast, it’s easy to doubt the run-up. Times seem a little too good. So investors begin looking for reasons to sell.

The fact is, we’re in a strong bull market. That’s a good thing. And it means we expect more upside from here. Stay long.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/10/24/ ... from-here/

[winston]

The Stock Market is Getting Dangerously Close to Becoming the Most Expensive It’s Ever Been (Dating Back to 1871)

by Sean Williams

Looking back more than 154 years, the average S&P 500 Shiller P/E multiple is a relatively tame 17.29.

As of the closing bell on Oct. 29, the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E hit its highest multiple during the current bull market cycle (which began in October 2022) of 41.20.

Eventually, a stock market correction, bear market, or elevator-down move will occur again. When it does, remember that history is a long-term ally, and that being optimistic is, statistically, the smartest path to generating riches on Wall Street over long periods.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/11/03/ ... k-to-1871/

[winston]

G Sachs, M Stanley Warn of 10-20% Equity Mkt Correction Risks

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have warned investors that the equity markets may experience a correction and drop by 10-20% over the next 1-2 years.

David Solomon, CEO at Goldman Sachs, said this correction is a normal characteristic of a long-term bull market and clients should maintain their investments and review portfolio allocations rather than attempting to buy on dips.

Also agreeing that the correction is a healthy trend rather than a sign of crisis, Ted Pick, CEO at Morgan Stanley, stressed that investors should welcome cyclical corrections.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

The 4 'Ingredients' For A Major Stock Market Correction Have Arrived

Summary

The S&P 500 is at risk of a major correction, with current highs driven by momentum and rate cut expectations rather than economic strength.

Key warning signs include extreme overvaluation, record margin debt, narrow market breadth, and heavy concentration in mega-cap tech stocks like NVDA.

Economic indicators such as a slowing job market and limited effectiveness of Fed rate cuts suggest the market's rally is disconnected from real fundamentals.

A correction of 12% or more is likely in 2026, presenting a better entry point for investors as risks of a downturn continue to mount.

Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/483696 ... e=hs_email

[winston]

Amid fragile markets, how to predict when the bubble will burst?

The news and stories that move markets could well be a leading indicator of when markets fail

by Richard Harris

Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that stock markets accurately predicted nine of the last five recessions.

The same could be said of financial economists. So-called leading indicators like market sentiment swing with the daily news.

Optimism is the default option but bull markets die hard. Still, most seasoned financial economists now recognise that stock markets are becoming more fragile.

And so does the crowd. The frequency of online searches for “stock market bubble” has surged since July.

This quantification of the wisdom of the crowd is the essence of “narrative finance”: news stories and developing narratives move markets and these can be a plausible forecasting indicator of when markets become critical.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opin ... e=homepage

[winston]

Amid fragile markets, how to predict when the bubble will burst?

The news and stories that move markets, could well be a leading indicator of when markets fail

by Richard Harris

Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that stock markets accurately predicted nine of the last five recessions. The same could be said of financial economists.

So-called leading indicators like market sentiment swing with the daily news.

Optimism is the default option but bull markets die hard. Still, most seasoned financial economists now recognise that stock markets are becoming more fragile.

And so does the crowd. The frequency of online searches for “stock market bubble” has surged since July.

This quantification of the wisdom of the crowd is the essence of “narrative finance”: news stories and developing narratives move markets and these can be a plausible forecasting indicator of when markets become critical.

The financial system absorbs shocks by adjusting prices using information from news signals passed through narratives. This price adjustment results in a new state of dynamic equilibrium between buyers and sellers – akin to the concept in cell microbiology.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opin ... pe=section