Risks Out There 06 (May 20 - Dec 24)

[winston]

After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023

More tech tantrums. China’s Covid surge. And above all, no central banks riding to the rescue if things go wrong.

Two consecutive down years are rare for major equity markets — the S&P 500 index has fallen for two straight years on just four occasions since 1928.

Rate-hiking peak possibly in March, with money markets expecting the Fed to switch into rate-cutting mode by the end of 2023.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, predicts earnings of $180 per share in 2023 for the S&P 500, versus analysts’ expectations of $231.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/18-trill ... 00466.html

[winston]

12 Events to Watch for in 2023

BY MICHAEL WILKERSON

1) Inflation Returns
2) The U.S. Economy Enters Recession
3) European Energy Crisis Worsens
4) Oil, Crypto and Gold Perform
5) Continued Rise of Resource Nationalism
6) Traditional Global Alliances Break, New Ones Form
7) U.S. Dollar Dominance Continues to Erode
8) The West, Weary of Cost of Ukraine War, Sues for Peace
9) Domino Effect of Exposure
10) China Barks, but Doesn’t Bite, at Taiwan
11) Second-Half Rebound in Economy and Markets
12) More of the Same

Source: Stormwall.com

https://www.theepochtimes.com/12-events ... Ppyth2s%3D

[behappyalways]

BlackRock Suspends Withdrawals Of £3.5 Billion UK Property Fund As REIT Contagion Worsens
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fire- ... perty-fund

[behappyalways]

2023年全球經濟趨勢 陳鳳馨提醒注意這三隻黑天鵝！【Yahoo TV#風向龍鳳配 】
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PuVmyQOyzX0

[behappyalways]

KKR, one of the largest real estate investment houses in the world, just decided to put a limit to investors' withdrawals from one of their funds.

After Blackstone, another huge real estate player trying to stop the bleeding by forcing investors to stay in and swallow the pain.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 0079509510

BlackRock Suspends Withdrawals Of £3.5 Billion UK Property Fund As REIT Contagion Worsens
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fire- ... perty-fund

[behappyalways]

Stock Warnings Get Louder With Estimates Falling
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock ... es-falling

[behappyalways]

Bear market's final leg looms as weak earnings season, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jllSfmo5a1I

[winston]

Stocks Are Still Very Overvalued

by Tim Melvin

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the S&P 500 is 22.

Ed Yardeni uses the old-fashioned rule of 20 to reverse-engineer a projected price-to-earnings ratio of just 13.5 based on current conditions.

The Rule states that the result of the market PE + CPI growth rate must be under 20 for stocks to be undervalued.

Currently, the rule of 20 calculation is 28.76. Multiplying 13.5 times the most optimistic forecast for 2023 earnings gives us an index target of just 3,307.

My own valuation analysis gives me a fair value for the S&P 500 of around 3,100-3,200.

The index trades at 4,136 as I write this.

Source: Investors Alley

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/02/10/ ... vervalued/

[behappyalways]

"I'm Afraid For The Worst" - Charles Nenner Warns "The War Is Going To Pick Up... And Gold's Going To $30k"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-af ... t-end-well

[winston]

8 Most Common Types of Investment Risk

by SCOTT ROTHBORTUP

1. Systematic Risk/Market Risk
2. Systemic Risk
3. Interest Rate Risk
4. Credit Risk
5. Counterparty Risk
6. Sovereign Risk
7. Estimation Risk
8. Extrapolation Risk

Source: Market Watch

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/the ... k-10359668