Global Economic Data & News 03 (May 22 - Dec 26)

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These Countries Will Sell You A Passport
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... u-passport

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Over 40% Of Spaniards Are Worried About Their Financial Future
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... ial-future

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The $127 Trillion Global Stock Market In One Giant Chart
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/127-t ... iant-chart

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IMF warns investors to fasten their seat belts

Amid geopolitical instability and World Bank estimates that global GDP growth will be the slowest since the 1960s, the ride ahead is turbulent

by Andrew Hammond

While numerous stock markets are at or near record highs, this surge in gold prices highlights the degree of investor angst as geopolitical and wider market uncertainty – including from a weaker US dollar – bite.

Previously acknowledged the multitude of headwinds the global economy is facing including youth discontent around the world.

Global public debt projected to exceed 100 per cent of GDP by 2029.

Governments may not have the fiscal firepower to help counteract another big financial crisis – akin to the 2007 to 2008 international shock intensified by the crash of Lehman Brothers – let alone another global economic trauma like the Covid-19 pandemic.

Before anyone heaves a big sigh of relief, please hear this: Global resilience has not yet been fully tested. And there are worrying signs the test may come.

Highlighted the lingering impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariff agenda and its associated uncertainties.

The multiple global fractures on the landscape right now include health risks in the post-pandemic era, climate crises and economic inequality. On the security front, there is the continuing threat from international terrorism and North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons in Asia.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/breaki ... ref=header

[winston]

IMF warns of dim outlook for world economy hit by rolling shocks

The global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% this year, up from 3% predicted in July

The upgraded forecast for this year is largely due to factors that provided temporary relief – a burst in activity as companies and households, rushed to get goods in anticipation of high tariffs and a weaker dollar that bolstered global trade.

In the US, economic growth will slow to 2 per cent this year, marking a significant stepdown from 2024 and remain steady at 2.1 per cent in 2026.

Growth in the eurozone is seen picking up to 1.2 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent next.

China’s expansion is forecast to downshift to 4.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026.

Multiple factors helped cushion the blow from tariff shocks in the first half, including a boom in artificial intelligence investment.

“Despite multiple offsetting drivers, the tariff shock is further dimming already lacklustre growth prospects”

“We expect a slowdown in the second half of this year, with only a partial recovery in 2026.”

The IMF notes increasing signs that the impact of high levies is starting to be felt, including in the US, where a key measure of inflation has risen and unemployment has ticked up.

Governments will need to find ways to cut spending, particularly in Europe, given the additional costs linked to ageing populations, increased defence spending and on energy security.

“The calculus of post-pandemic debt sustainability, is complicated by elevated debt ratios, worsening primary balances, higher interest rates and a weakening growth outlook”.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ing-shocks

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The world's biggest exporters in 2024
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1980283852930355663

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BRICS Vs G7: Comparing 2026 GDP Growth Forecasts
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -forecasts

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Visualizing The $19 Trillion Global Cost Of Conflict
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/visua ... t-conflict

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The $117 Trillion World Economy In One Giant Visualization
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/117 ... ualization

[winston]

The major economies’ prospects in 2026

The pattern of under-consumption in China will not be easy to break, as it would demand a wholesale transformation of the economy's structure.

by Daniel Gros

The US is roaring ahead, the European Union appears to be stuck in a low-growth equilibrium and China is experiencing unbalanced growth.

Decades of fiscal deficits in Japan produced enormous debts, which now exceed 225 per cent of GDP.

Many commentators are questioning the fundamentals of the AI boom and the math behind it, with some warning that this is a speculative bubble.

Political leaders tend to claim credit when the economy performs well and to pursue frantic reforms when it does not.

But short-term policy measures will have little impact on the forces shaping the prospects of the world’s major economies today.

Source: PROJECT SYNDICATE

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... pects-2026