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by winston » Wed Apr 30, 2025 9:13 am
Over 55% of cross-border bank lending to emerging markets and developing economies is still in US dollars, leaving trade finance exceptionally vulnerable to exchange rate volatility and sudden dollar liquidity crunches.
The trade finance gap in sub-Saharan Africa alone now exceeds US$100 billion – a 30 per cent increase since 2019.
by winston » Mon May 26, 2025 2:58 pm
We are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders:-
1. The global monetary order
2. The political order
3. The global power structure
4. Nature and
5. Technology
by winston » Wed May 28, 2025 7:42 am
What is the US’ real goal?
Look for opportunities to enter the market when the market is extremely pessimistic.
Preferred areas at present are US financial stocks and some Chinese stocks which are in sectors supported by government policies.
Since physical assets such as gold are not easily confiscated or interfered with by other governments, many central banks are also increasing their holdings.
In addition to gold, we are also optimistic about the outlook for copper prices. Under the trend of deglobalisation, countries are committed to reducing their dependence on external supply chains. Infrastructure demand is expected to increase significantly, which helps the outlook for copper prices.
The outlook for commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Brazilian real is also relatively attractive; and these countries are relatively less affected by the trade war.
by winston » Wed Oct 15, 2025 7:52 am
Adequate Diversification and avoiding Overcrowded Trades.
For example, we currently hold a sizeable portion of our investments in assets that should perform well in typical “risk-on” markets. However, we also hold put options that may offer protection if we enter a risk-off environment.
In addition, we have some long-maturity bonds that should provide ballast in the event that falling growth becomes a more pressing concern than inflation. But we also hold positions in gold and other commodities and inflation-linked bonds, that have the potential to help performance if growth slows but inflation rises.
We currently have allocations to market neutral equity strategies, tradable carbon emissions and catastrophe bonds;
There are several sectors and regions that do not enjoy the spotlight but have achieved double-digit performance this year – Eastern Europe, Latin America, Nuclear, European Defence, European banks, some emerging bond markets and so on.
By leaning into active risk, allocating with intent and staying agile, investors can build portfolios that are not only prepared for the surprises of 2025 and beyond, but able to thrive in them too.
by winston » Tue Oct 21, 2025 8:48 am
Sought to mitigate the overconcentration risk that has prevailed with the dominance of the Magnificent Seven stocks.
We manage risk and pick stocks and bonds on a long-term basis.
We tend to be a bit more conservative in a market like this.
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