Market Timing 08 (Apr 2023 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Stock Bullishness is Heating Up

by Brett Eversole

Sentiment always follows price. The longer a bull market goes on, the more excited investors get to own stocks.

It’s not plain old excitement you have to worry about, though… It’s euphoria. That’s when high sentiment becomes a warning sign of potential pain on the horizon.

Unfortunately, we’re getting near that stage.

If investors move from bullish to euphoric, it’ll be time to worry about the markets.

Fortunately, we’re not there yet. And that means we want to keep owning stocks now.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/11/22/ ... e_vignette

[winston]

The high-risk, high-reward Trump market

by Jeff Sommer

Because Trump’s approach to politics and economics is so disruptive and unconventional, markets have been straining to digest the implications of the power transfer in Washington, switching erratically between elation, confusion and occasional bouts of high anxiety.

Textbook economics tells us that adding tariffs and reducing the workforce could slow the economy and spur inflation.

This year’s deficit is larger than it has ever been in a period without a war or a major crisis: more than 6 per cent and rising. The total US debt is 123 per cent of GDP.

Source: NY Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... ump-market

[winston]

How to conquer the fear of missing out

Many investors do not invest enough or fully, after taking profits too early and not being able to get back in and missing the boat

by Samuel Rhee

Some chase markets, others put more money to work at the top because of Fomo. Many do not invest enough or fully, after taking profits too early and not being able to get back in and missing the boat.

More than 90 per cent of the funds have underperformed the benchmark in the past 15 years,

Proven investment principles

Implement a rules-based process of investing, so you take the emotions out of the equation.

Start with a core allocation to equities and bonds; the longer you invest, returns will revert to the average.

Adopt the discipline of a regular savings plan to neutralise volatility and uneven returns.

Investing regularly means you get to invest at lower levels when markets are down. Even if you are in your 50s like me, you still have an investment horizon of 30 to 40 years.

Keep turnover low and costs as low as possible as they directly and negatively impact returns.

Keep it as simple as you can and keep it personal (crystallise the goals you are investing for).

Being honest with yourself is the most important trait to help you remove your personal biases and reduce the negative effects of being driven by your emotions.

Li Lu: “Chinese Warren Buffett”: “If investing is trying to predict the future and the future is inherently unpredictable, then the only way we can do better, is to assess all the facts and truly know what you know and know what you do not know. That’s your probability edge.”

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... issing-out

[winston]

Santa Rally 2024: Why the Bulls Should Charge Through December

by Luke Lango

Source: Investor Place

https://tradesoftheday.com/2024/12/04/s ... -december/

[winston]

Stocks will end 2025 lower due to sticky inflation, economic slowdown, Stifel predicts

by Josh Schafer

Bannister sees sticky inflation prompting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates high as economic growth weakens, serving as key catalysts to the eventual pullback in the stock market rally.

The environment does not appear conducive to continued equity mania, and we prefer more defensive sectors. He added that slower economic growth would benefit "defensive value" sectors, including the Healthcare (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) sectors.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-w ... 57972.html

[winston]

The Good Times Should Continue in 2025

by Brett Eversole

It’s easy to nitpick a bull market. But if you had done that over the past two years, it would have cost you dearly. Don’t make the same mistake now.

Stocks are soaring… But it’s a broad, healthy boom. And according to history, the good times should continue in 2025.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2024/12/18/t ... e-in-2025/

[winston]

Stocks Are Set For 16% Upside in 2025

by Brett Eversole

U.S. investors had a fantastic 2024. It may have ended with a gut punch – but don’t let that sour how your feel going into this year.

According to history, the Dow could jump 16% in 2025. Stocks are set up to keep rising… Don’t miss it.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/01/03/s ... e-in-2025/

[behappyalways]

staircase
https://x.com/Retr90s/status/1876453054251200703


Stairstep decline
https://x.com/ozzy_livin/status/1876662108261371918

[winston]

The market’s ebb-and-flow in 2025

Here’s his roadmap for this dance over the next few months:

The stage feels set for growth hopes to rise and inflation fears to ease over the next few weeks. As they do, stocks should push higher.

The dynamic will change at some point, likely in late February or early March. Growth hopes will fade. Inflation fears will rise. At that point, stocks will stumble.

But we believe that sometime after that, encouraging data will return, inflation fears will ebb, and we’ll climb once again.

That will be our dance all year long on Wall Street. We’ll take two steps forward, rallying on pro-growth hopes. Then, we’ll take one step back, dropping on reinflation fears.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Warning: Protect Your Portfolio Now

by Chris Johnson

The Market’s Fundamentals are Failing

This week’s selling in stocks has put the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 into a “technical no man’s land”

The Magnificent Seven Have Fallen and Can’t Get Up

Market Sentiment Takes a Turn for the Worse

How to Protect a Portfolio
First, control losses.
Second, Hedge your portfolio
One Step Further, Use an Option to Protect Your Portfolio

Source: Money Morning

https://tradesoftheday.com/2025/03/03/w ... folio-now/