Market Timing 08 (Apr 2023 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Are Stocks Poised for a Rally to End 2024?

by Matt Benjamin

First, the economy looks very healthy at the moment.

Industry analysts predict the S&P 500 will report year-over-year earnings growth of 11.3% this year and a whopping 14.4% in 2025.

Cuts Are Coming…

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, fourth quarter market gains have been the largest and most consistent over the years. Gains for the S&P 500 have averaged 4.2% during the fourth quarter since 1949 – much better than the first quarter (2.1%), the second quarter (1.8%), and the third quarter (0.8%).

There are always risks, and smart investors account for them. But if I have to decide whether to be in the market or out of it right now, consider me all in.

Source: Wealthy Retirement

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/09/04/ ... -end-2024/

[winston]

5 Critical Charts Indicating the Stock Market Correction Could Have Room to Run

By Michael Kramer

1. Nasdaq 100 Falls Below Uptrend Line
2. S&P 500 in a Rising Wedge
3. Nvidia Stock Forms Bearish Engulfing Pattern
4. Semiconductors in a Head and Shoulders Pattern
5. Apple Correction Weighs on Indexes

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/5-cr ... s_headline

[winston]

We Could See a 16% Rally in Stocks Over the Year to Come

by Brett Eversole

Interest rates are falling, and mortgage rates are too.

This is stimulus for the stock market.

And according to history, it should lead to big gains in the months to come.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/10/02/ ... r-to-come/

[winston]

8 Charts Suggesting Stock Market Pullback Could Deepen in the Near-Term

By Michael Kramer

1. S&P 500 in Island Top
2. Nasdaq 100 in Diamond Top
3. USD/CAD Higher, Signaling S&P 500 Could Come Under Pressure
4. Volatility Spike
5. High-Yield Bonds Drop
6. Biotech Stocks at Risk of Breakdown
7. Adobe Drops
8. Alibaba's Run to End Soon?

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/8-ch ... s_headline

[winston]

This ‘Clock’ Says It’s a Good Time to Invest

by Robert Ross

We’re not fully in the Recovery phase yet, but all signs point toward it. This aligns with the idea that markets are entering a “Goldilocks phase” – steady growth, cooling inflation, and supportive monetary policy.

So while the talking heads on financial news shows may make a compelling case for an imminent stock market crash, keep in mind all the times they’ve cried wolf.

Because there are always things to worry about in the market. But knowing when to tune out the noise and hit the buy button is the difference between beating the market and sitting in cash.

Source: Total Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2024/10/10/ ... to-invest/

[winston]

Charting the Markets: Five Sectors to Watch

Source: The Street

https://pro.thestreet.com/trade-ideas/c ... m_content=

[winston]

9 Charts Showing Stocks Poised for Deeper Pullback as Key Indexes Break Trendlines

By Michael Kramer

1. S&P 500 Continues to Form Rising Wedges
2. Nasdaq 100 at Key Juncture
3. Equal Weight Stocks Correct
4. Dow Jones Breaks Rising Wedge
5. Housing Index Vulnerable
6. Nikkei, Dollar Break Lower
7. DAX Snaps Uptrend
8. GE Stock Drops Hard
9. Gold Looking Overextended

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/9-ch ... s_headline

[winston]

The Bull Market Has More Room to Grow Over the Next 12 Months

by Marc Chaikin

I expect a strong third quarter and the strong period of the election-year cycle will propel stocks to new highs into year-end.

Source: DailyWealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2024/10/24/t ... 12-months/

[winston]

It’s Time to Bet on a Year-End Rally

by Brett Eversole

This year has been incredible so far. According to history, that nearly guarantees we’ll see strong returns to finish the year. And that means we want to stay long right now…

We are in a bull market. No matter how many fears you might have, there’s no getting around that fact.

Stocks have been on a tear in 2024. And this bull market has made the past two years some of the best in recent memory.

Strength begets strength. When stocks are moving higher, they tend to keep moving higher. And a great first 10 months means we can expect more gains ahead…

Plenty of investors are scouring the headlines looking for reasons to sell. That’s no surprise, given the incredible rally we’ve seen over the past two years. But history shows that selling – or even finding a reason not to buy – is a big mistake right now.

Instead, stick with the bull market that’s underway… and be prepared for a strong rally to end an already fantastic year.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2024/11/06/i ... e_vignette

[winston]

“Short-term cautious, Medium-term bullish, Long-term mixed”

Short-term (daily/weekly basis), the market needs to cool off. It is due for either a consolidation or pullback in November – before a rebound rally in December.

Medium-term (monthly/yearly basis), the combination of falling interest rates, pro-growth policies, and strong earnings should propel stocks meaningfully higher in 2025 and maybe even into 2026/27.

Long-term (multi-year basis), this market boom will end in a bust.

We are working on our second consecutive >20% return year for the S&P 500. We think we could get another one in 2025.

That would be three consecutive >20% return years for the market. That only has one precedent – the late 1990s. And that ended with the Dot Com Crash.

Be aware of this risk.

Source: Investor Place